Australia has a relatively low population for the number of popular male ‘national’ sports: the various football codes and cricket. This inevitably causes a high level of competition among them for fans and finance. Other countries recognise that possible changes in these sports may be seen first in Australia. “Because the sporting marketplace in this country is so competitive, any trends – good or bad – in the global game manifest themselves here first.” This article will look (in depth) at the health of Australia’s main male team sporting codes, suggest the turning points the codes will have to negotiate on the way and then predict where they will be in ten years time.
Australia has four “football” codes and cricket. For argument’s sake, none of these sports will be referred to as just football, but for the record Soccer has more claim to the name than any other sport.
Current Status:
Despite chronic problems with player behaviour Australian Rugby League is in a very healthy state at the moment in terms of fans and interest but there are always questions over the financial stability of its NRL clubs. The NRL is where most of the interest stems from and unless it can come up with some real solutions to these problems (not merging teams or letting Russell buy them, but real financial planning) we might see an NBL like collapse in the NRL, although if that was to happen it would have to be from worse decision making than Jamie Packer in Vegas.
Turning Points:
- They recently dodged a bullet having John Howard decline a job opportunity in the sport, if he’d have accepted I certainly would have boycotted.
- A Kangaroos v Wallaby yearly exhibition match will give both codes a boost. Half of each game with cheap tickets at ANZ stadium. Rugby League will get a taste for real international competition and publicity.
- Can someone fix player behaviour? Rugby league needs to fix this ongoing problem and fast. There is no place in Australia’s future for assault of any kind against women, fans will boycott and lawsuits in this current financial crisis will cripple the sport. Young players are getting taught about sexual relationships and respect for women by the internet porn industry and steps need to be taken to address this.
- Can there be competition internationally, other than the occasional upset from New Zealand or England? Australia doesn’t have any other nation capable of matching them. If there was competition from even a third or fourth team we could really see the rugby league world cup take off. More money needs to be sent to develop Pacific Island nations teams, but weather this will happen remains to be seen.
2020 Prediction:
A slight drop in percentage popularity as international competition will not improve enough in the next ten years. The game is a good product for the public but I doubt it will improve from the position it is in at the moment. State of Origin will always be one of the ‘must see’ Australian Sporting events of the year and hence the game will always be a super power of Australian sport.
Current Status:
Aussie Rules certainly isn’t in decline but is running out of ideas to keep itself as number one in terms of fans. It does not have the same behavioural issues as rugby league but really suffers from no international matches at all. Apart from a few gae (Gaelic Football) matches against Ireland, aussie rules doesn’t really get much international coverage.
Recently aussie rules has taken to signing a high profile rugby league player (Mike Hunt) in a bid to get the east coast of Australia tuning into some games.
Turning Points:
- When all eyes are on Mike Hunt’s debut in the sport it needs to be able to show a good game. Even if he’s not a great player to start with no one is going to respect a blow out 150-35 score line.
- Aussie Rules needs to get some form of ‘State of Origin’ up and running. Fans would love to see representative teams go head to head and could be the annual showpiece of the sport as it is in rugby league. A Victoria v Larger States might work well.
2020 Prediction:
Aussie rules will still have its place in Australian sport but I expect a slight decrease in the percentage fan base. They will continue to get a lot of fans turning up to club games but unless they get a state of origin type annual match they will not attract enough new fans.
3. Soccer.
Current Status:
Australian Soccer is at the healthiest it has ever been. It does not look like it will plateau any time in the next year unless absolute disaster. Soccer in Australia has grown to this level because it’s “the world game” and has subsequently captured the imagination of many in the sporting public that love ‘rooting’ for the underdog .
The A league has also proved successful in its first few years because they broke down some ethnic barriers and produces a decent product for people to get behind.
Turning Points:
- We made it into the World Cup Finals, but if we fail to win a game at the event I can imagine a lot of people will give up on the sport.
- We need to qualify for the next Asian Cup, as world cups are 4 years apart, qualification is extremely important to keep people interested between those times.
- Mass exodus of players after the South African world cup. Superstars like Schwarzter, Kewell and Cahill may all hang up their boots after next years finals and we have no one to replace the fan base they bring. Schwartzer has been called Benjamin Button because of the ability to age like a fine wine but playing in his 40’s may prove too much for him. Kewell said he would kick on due to injuries stifling his late 20’s but another injury in his 30’s may force him to give it up. Cahill seems the logical person to ‘kick on’ and keep interest levels high through to the following world cup.
- Will Australia get a soccer world cup (either stage one or win one)? Probably not, but if they do it could well become our most popular sport. This is probably the reason why the FFA is fighting so hard to host a WC in the near future.
2020 Prediction:
Unless we somehow get the World Cup before this date I see Australian Soccer peeking in Popularity at the 2011 South African World Cup, then plateau to the 2013 Asian Cup, where I think most ‘superstars’ will retire. Then a slow but steady drop as our national team becomes weaker and qualification into the tournaments becomes harder against opposition where we are seen as the favourites.
The A-league will slowly decrease in popularity over the next ten years as those who watch it know if the players were better they’d be playing overseas.
Current Status:
Cricket is Australia ‘National Sport’ and has really done well for its self in recent times including a shortened format of the game. Australia has always pulled in the fans at home, and I think the domestic teams are on the brink of doing likewise as they have proven themselves of the highest quality in the recent club challenge, where both Australian teams who entered played off in the semi and the Blues went on to win the whole tournament.
Turning Points:
- Australia need to build up characters in the public eye: Gilly, McGrath and Warne have moved on and Australia really need players with some personality. Katich winning Master Chef is a fine example of what I’m talking about.
- Marketing for the Big Bash (T20 domestic comp) has got to get bigger every year. The Blues play at ANZ stadium and plans should be to fill that up, even if it means giving schools free tickets and reducing adult ticket prices to the cost of a stadium beer.
2020 Prediction:
With the amount of cricket being played at the moment Australia will always have some successes and losses during the years to come. Cricket in Australia will become more popular in the following years as the game is adapting to what the public wants. Expect to see changes to the 50 over format!
5. Rugby Union.
Current Status:
The most unhealthy of the codes in this article, Rugby Union is on a downward spiral as the game is becoming more kick/penalty orientated, no domestic team has made the finals in the super 14 and the Wallabies are struggling to match it with New Zealand and South Africa.
Turning Points:
- This spring tour has got to be successful. Even if the Wallabies don’t produce a fairytale grand slam they have got to get the monkey off the back here and now and show the world and their fans that they’re still an exciting force to be reckoned with.
- Good advertising has got to be produced in the near future, I’m sick of seeing pathetic ads for the Wallabies or the Super 14 that don’t show the best parts of the sport. Rugby ads used to be exciting with the Matt Dunning intercept, the Steve Larkham drop goal, flick passes, big tackles, etc, etc. At the moment we have ads featuring Al Baxter, our most capped and penalised prop singing the national anthem. Whoever makes the ads should actually be a rugby fan. All the codes mentioned have good ads, except for the cricketers who have KFC all meals of the day.
- Need players to look up to. Like the cricket team, the wallabies have lost their superstar players recently, no Gregan, no Larkham. These are players who would do anything to win and their pride and courage need to be taken up and noticed by others in the team. I never saw them demanding $2.5k each ($31.25 a minute) for a trail match.
- A Kangaroos v Wallaby yearly exhibition match will give both codes a boost. Half of each game with cheap tickets at ANZ stadium. Rugby Union will get a chance to display their sport to a large amount of league only fans and hopefully have them appreciate the sport that their game originated from.
- The Super 15 in 2011, needs a real product rethink. The game needs to be simpler, with more running rugby and more tries scored (this could be as simple as changing referees interpretations of the laws). The TV rights need to be addressed as some matches should be shown on free to air, it can’t be Fox exclusive again because no new people will choose to watch it.
- The game on display at the 2011 WC needs to be exciting running rugby, rugby can’t afford a 15-6 all penalty final again. The Wallabies will need to go into the WC as underdogs and punch above their weight, we can’t peak too early.
2020 Prediction:
A strong end to this year and a super 14 title in 2010 to the Brumbies will start a gradual climb for the code. The Code will then only keep climbing if the suggested turning points are addressed properly.
These codes are weather you like it or not businesses and hence need to be run with the ‘consumers’ (the fans) as a top priority. In Australia we have the most competition for fans (and that’s why other countries look to us for their future trends), and although one fan can support two things at once, they are always going to pump more money into their favourite. Some codes are currently taking steps in the right direction, such as Cricket and Soccer. Some at least look like they’re trying, like Aussie Rules and Rugby League. But still ‘others’ need to draw a line in the sand and ‘unite’ as their name suggest move forward and really show the fans what they can do for them!
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sorry bobas,
AFL will remain number 1 for a long time, moving into western sydney and gold coast will sure up there national comp and provide home derbys for each state to help build profile, its a great marketing move regardless of the iitial start up cost and one the other codes can only dream of.
rugby league is a television sport, always has been, most of the sydney teams are looking to move to 20000 seat stadiums and return to the 80’s style home grounds, there revenue comes from television plane and simple and this wont change, your never going to get 90 thousand at homebush for a club game like the afl does repeatedly.
soccer has the support at ground level and expansion will mean alot of contracts for alot of kids, i played soccer throughout my youth and i played with alot of people who kicked on (i didnt cos i was fat and shite!) but in reality if a few of them had had the a-league they would have stuck around and gone professional.
rugby union, dispite all the death talk is in a great state, the wallabies are shite, it happens, we had a golden run and even though that was five years ago or so were still getting over it. as fans we will adjust to being underdogs and our time will come again. having more local derbys and games in australia will help the code and we have the right ceo for the time (and it dont matter if you like him or not, he will make money and secure the future of the code like no other!) the only thing i really agree with is the need for an advertising company to get tehre balls out and do something risky to attract people, we need a catch phrase or popular song that can sell the game for the next few years.
so in relation
2020
1-afl
2-soccer
3-rugby league
4-union
cricket is its own thing and i dont really think it competes at all, most kids who play it play a winter sport to, it will be talent identification that will be important.
i dont think there is any reason that all of these sports wont achieve success for years to come and make this great gaggerless land all the better for it!
What the article says and what you say dont disagree with each other. you say,
“the only thing i really agree with is the need for an advertising company to get tehre balls out and do something risky to attract people, we need a catch phrase or popular song that can sell the game for the next few years.” and then you list in order the pecking order for sports.
You dont say what you do disagree with.
you then just write your own finite predictions, like you know its gonna happen. When the article never disagrees just outlines what factors could play a roll in their positions?
i did, your post just attacks me instead of addressing why, i think you should find a new hero then buy a subway footlong!
Bobas I thought AFL already has a state of origin albeit it doesnt capture the imagination in the same way the league version does.
Good article.
see http://www.kick2kick.net/afl/state-of-origin-history
the last ’state of origin’ match was played in 99.
In a bid to get it up and running again they played a 08 tribute match, ‘Victoria v The Rest’ of the states. I thought this worked well as an exhibition match, however, they need to make it serious and have the best players available. Weather they will try it again anything again isn’t certain.
Until the best players are available and there is some passion on the line I wouldn’t call it state of origin, even though the term is used loosely in aussie rules.
Soccer will probably become Australia’s number one sport. The domestic game is constantly improving and more youth play it than any other sport in Australia. On top of that the problem with soccer in OZ is that there is not any proper national coverage, this will end in 2013 and it can be expected to see all socceroos games on TV the same with the A league. If the A league keeps improving in quality and its shown to the clubs local audiences then the league will dramatically improve.
The A-League is going backwards.
The reason the sport is played in large numbers is because its simplistic nature and lack of violent contact makes it appealling to a diverse range of people across many age groups. Sports like rugby league, rugby union and Australian rules football are enjoyed by many people but played by few of them because only they are so demanding on the body. Just about anyone can kick a ball around in a friendly social competition (soccer), but few people can play in an organised rugby league competition, regardless of its level.
actually the a-league is declining in crowds u idiot. the gold coast could only manage 2500 to see a game. THAT IS ABSOLUTE SHIT! do we really want a fucking foreign sport becoming no.1 which it wont because it is pussy and boring.n PLAY AND ATCH REAL FOOTBALL – AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL our only native sports. But if u want to be UN-AUSTRALIAN go watch your THUGBY or Shitty boring pussy soccer
Aussie Rules invented SOO, the number of states and the reluctance of clubs to make their players available has sent it into hybernation – there is a good grass roots demand for it but until clubs fully support it, it is not likely to return in any significant way.
that’s true! but to better their position it should address those problems and come out of hibernation.
AFL – Expansion time is always risky. The ARU can tell you that the blaze of publicity when a player crosses codes is only matched by the publicity when he switches back. The Gold Coast club is a sure thing, but the western Sydney club will find it a hard slog.
RL – Will contract somewhat, but will thrive on its base if it embraces it – see the Bulldogs are now re-renaming themselves Canterbury-Bankstown. See the popularity of the Eels late this year. But a significant financial reckoning is coming.
Soccer – Has been the most popular kids winter sport for decades, but that doesn’t translate to the popularity of the pro game. And neither does the “World Game” concept – hasn’t stopped American football, gaelic football, hurling, baseball, AFL being hugely popular in their own backyards. Getting the World Cup here would be massive, otherwise interest in the Socceroos will plateau once people realise we are a long way from being a world power in the sport. The A-League is facing a real struggle, with the initial excitement waning.
Free to air coverage for A-League and Super 14/15 would be huge, but can the FFA/ARU take the short-term hit to finances that losing Foxtel would entail?
Rugby – The Wallabies only need to beat the All Blacks once really – at the RWC in 2011 – for all to be forgiven. They will improve. I think the Super 15 will be a winner, providing a greater quantity of good rugby deeper into the winter, rather than one Wallaby test every three weeks like this year. The problems with the rules are less of a problem than the Aust teams not winning – if they leave the rules alone for a couple of years, coaches and players will rediscover the fact that you win by hanging onto the ball and scoring tries. I think the ARU is in a better financial situation than the FFA or NRL.
Australia is like Ireland with all the codes but in truth i could see 4 codes of
AFL as it is the all australian and national sport now.
Cricket as it has always been the summer sport and doesn’t have a oval ball in sight.
Soccer as sadly it is the world game and the WC is in my eyes the number one comp in the world.
Rugby but which one,one with a big international set up which Rugby Union has or one with a good club set up like the NRL which the ARU would love to have??????,as i don’t think there is room for 2 codes of Rugby but League is becoming a niche sport in England yet Union is getting bigger in the NH but one thing i don’t want to see is any form of Rugby dying in Australia and being bottom of the list because in truth Rugby Union and Soccer are joint number 4 but by next year the aussie bandwagon will make Soccer number 2 for at least 4 weeks.
Rugby league has grown exponentially in Europe over the last few years. The RLEF and RFL have done a great job.
There might be a professional competition in the USA next year.
dont forget, in 2013 the BI lions are coming to australia. this may be a shot in the arm for rugby, even if its short term.
I did forget about that. Yes that would work in rugbys favour. However it needs good promotion and the lions need to the best, not a b side.
a few thing need to go right- hopefully, there isnt a mass exodus of british players after the next world cup (suspect players; odriscoll, shane williams, wilko), these players are crowd attracters. also, if the wallabies dont perform at the world cup in en zud, then public expectations will be low, leading to poor attendances.
i would love to see the cauldron like atmosphere of the first and second lions tests in sa 2009 replecated at the sfs or suncorp, or in melbourne. terrific atmosphere, reminiscent of a state of origin atmosphere.
Definitely,
remember the comm games, the 7’s under the Melbourne dome had such a good atmosphere,
They had some wallabies in their team.
I would have picked different super 14 players, Mark Ella chose, Latham, Tuqiri, Gits, Fava and Cam Shepherd.. and they finished 4th
yes! that was a great atmosphere, until fava broke his leg…
for the lions, we need to get the british expats to fork out and come watch the games to boost up crowd numbers even more, but for 7’s event, islanders need to show. particularly fijians.
he has convulsions hey, on the field…
yeah, i cant watch when that happens, call me soft if u want. julian huxley was worse though, i liked him…
AFL doesn’t have the behavioural issues as rugby league?
What a load of BS and that statement in itself shows the author to have no journalistic clue at all.
Carlton rape coverups and the AFL refusing to investigate.
Albert Proud glassing and assaulting women on the Gold Coast and not punished by the AFL.
Brendon Fevola’s sexual misconduct at the brownlows and the failure of the AFL to immediately act on it.
Essendon player Michael Hurley kicking a cabbie in the groin after refusing to pay the fare.
AFL star player Dane Swan not paying the compensation he owes a cleaner that he and 2 mates viciously assaulted.
Hawthorne ruckman Brent Renouf has a booze-fuelled vandalism spree smashing up 2 cars….
Need I go on?
Tuchman, I said was they were not the SAME behavioural issues.
Not that AFL didn’t have any similar behavioural issues.
All sports have their bad eggs.
NRL has MORE problems per player number and the BIG DIFFERENCE is that these problems can be from near whole teams ( coaching and other staff included in some cases) are on rampage like the Knights in Bathurst or the sharks in NZ.
I have no journalistic clue… yet your first quote from me is incorrectly worded and doesn’t make sense, it also finishes with a question mark and you refer to it as a statement.
I don’t understand your motive, are you just a hater or do you want people to think ALF has more behavioural problems/misogyny than League?
Lets also, ‘journalistic-ally’ (albeit wikipedia) back up my claim in terms of abundance of player incidence.
2009 – AFL/VFL player incidents = 19
2009 – off feild NRL player incidents = 31
see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_involving_VFL/AFL_players#2009
&
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_off-field_incidents_involving_rugby_league_players#2009
Senior player numbers:
NRL 16 x 25 = 400
AFL 16 x 32 = 512
“It [AFL] does not have the same behavioural issues as rugby league”
Sorry, but your comment cannot be taken seriously as it’s untrue and biased. Quite a few AFL players have been accused of committing serious crimes against women: a fair few have been accused of raping women; the Carlton Football Club paid money to women in exchange for their silence over rape allegations against Carlton players; the CEO of the AFL admitted that the AFL and its clubs have kept many issues on player behaviour from the media over the last 10 years; an Adelaide Crows player hit his spouse; three Adelaide Crows players were accused of raping a woman in the early 00’s; a Collingwood player, Ben Holland, punched a woman who was trying to hail a taxi and; a Lions player glassed a woman in public; a former AFL player has been accused of trying to murder a woman!
No player from the NRL has ever been accused of trying to murder another Human being! There is no crime worse than murder, and the only code that has any link to a crime of that magnitude is Australian rules football! Plus, an AFL player was caught associating with a murderer!
Can you now see why your comment upset Max?
I cannot see rugby union rising from its slump any time soon. The only reason it was somewhat popular in the past was because a) the Wallabies have always been the underdogs since Australia’s playing numbers are lower than many of the other nations and b) the international scene in rugby union has enough depth to draw genuine interest to its world cup. The rise of football (soccer) has led to people turning away from rugby union and the Wallabies because football is a global sport and the Socceroos are competitive.
The ABS’s data on sport show that most of the people who play rugby union in Australia were born in other English speaking countries. Rugby union only has a sizeable following among the private schools that are a) anti-rugby league and b) part of the upper class network that has an affiliation with rugby union. For example, a comment I saw on the internet — from a bloke who I do not know — that claimed John Eales was successful at convincing the high school he attended into shutting down its recently formed rugby league team. According to the person who made the comment, over 60-plus players signed up to play for the school’s rugby league team!
Paranoid much?
Haha, Eales shut down the school league team!
and your source is a random comment on the internet.
and that’s how you argue that rugby union is anti league cos someone wrote a comment about evil eales on the net! haha, where’d you get it, youtube?
‘Its Fricken Helium’
for the record Soccer has more claim to the name than any other sport.
Not in Australia it doesn’t. I speak Australian English, it’s a recognised variant of the many forms english. Soccer is soccer here, always has been. Unless you’ve got some cultural cringe and think only British English is ‘proper’ english? Not me. Footy is footy, league is league, soccer is soccer. They all have well functioning labels in Australian english, it’s marketing BS or shame about your own culture that wants to change that.
As for the analysis, yeah probably about right, though I just wish Rugby would get its act together sooner, and I think AFL will unquestionably remain #1 in winter.
yeah rugby should get it together now.
I just think Soccer has the most claim cos the ball is actually on the foot most of the time.
I’m happy call it soccer and the best soccer game in the world calls it soccer, I dont really think its an issue.
I cringe when I see Americans call gridiron ‘Football’. Sports should have the same name in all parts of the world. Surely each one can come up with an original name.
I don’t really care, but an interesting bit of trivia, the name Soccer actually has its origins in England:
Wordorigins.org
http://www.wordorigins.org/index.php/site/comments/soccer/
Soccer is an abbreviation for Association Football. The Football
Association was formed in London in October 1863 when representatives
of eleven clubs and schools met in an attempt to standardize the rules
of the game. One of the rules prohibited the carrying of the ball, a
rule that would lead to the Rugby-oriented clubs leaving the
Association several months later. The name Association Football was
coined to distinguish it from Rugby.
By 1889, the abbreviation socca’ was in use, and the spelling soccer
had made its appearance by 1895.”
’bout the time they were improving the game by letting you pick up the ball!!!
I like both games, but as Bob Dwyer has said, the Physicality of Rugby make it the better game (to me, and apparently Bob too.)
its interesting to look at the history of the names of positions in rugby union, halfback, fullback, flyhalf etc and their origins in the eton wall game and other games like this.