WorkingClassRugger
David Codey (61)
Um, the concept of a lockdown is not for what's happening now, it's for what is to come.
Our current mortality rate, which is kind of meaningless due to immature data, is good. 1%.
If we look at a 20% infection rate, in 25 million people that's 5 million getting at some stage over the next 3-6 months maybe. 1% of those die, it's 50 000. Not small.
If 5% of those need acute level care (not you, not most of the people saying "it's not a death sentence") that's 250 000 needing an acute level (read ICU or similar) bed at some point.
We have about 2 000 in Australia.
We can ramp that up to maybe 4000 by using cardiac ICU, neurosurgical ICU and tasking a lot of operating theatre ventilators to create ICU level beds.
Then we need acute care nurses to staff them, intensivists to oversee it (anaesthetists will be recruited, in Italy even people like me - surgeons - were all brought in), more equipment to replace parts that fail.
250 000 into 4 000 needs to be really spread out to work.
Now, admittedly it might end up better than that. I hope so. Maybe infection rates will plateau, although it would buck the trend from most other countries based on the measures we are, and are not, undertaking.
Don't forget in all this the rationalisation of other medical care - the UK are triaging Urological cancers with the aim that many will be on surveillance for up to 6 months which would normally be treated within 1-3 months. Can't speak for other specialties.
And hope the usual run of acute patients requiring ICU for all the normal stuff that happens somehow disappear. They won't.
Sorry to be a downer, but I think there is far too much complacency going on right now. Witness the AFL and NRL. Spoke to my sister in Ireland tonight - they shut all the pubs and people basically went, "OK, probably makes sense". Here we have pubs, restaurants, bars and cafes plugging along. She'll be right.
Yep. Looking at the data and some people's comments that we are doing ok and kind of wondering are they reading the same thng as I am. Because at present that curve doesn't seem to be flattening. It would appear that we're entering the exponential growth period.
In regards to Ireland. They've also locked down the hospitals. My aunt had until recently spent 10 weeks in hospital for liver failure (which she seems to have made an almost biblical recovery from) when right near her leaving all family and friends were restricted from visiting. She was able to go home duri ng this but isn't allowed to leave the house. At all.