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COVID-19 Stuff Here

Lindommer

Lindommer

Steve Williams (59)
Staff member
Dctarget said:
Day 25 Scoreboard for Monday 6th April (4:00pm data):
5,795 total Australian confirmed cases. 107 new, +2% single day increase.

5 new deaths in the past 24 hours means that the AU death toll has now risen to 40.
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41 dead as at 8:50 AEDT. 21 in March and now 20 in the first six days of April, which, sadly, shouldn't be unexpected as patients become ill some time before they die. Another report had around 95 patients in various ICU wards in Australia today, which means that figure of 41 will rise, quickly, in the immediate future. Let's hope that 95 ICU figure comes down in the next fortnight.
 
tragic

tragic

John Solomon (38)
Mortality rate is playing catch up now the denominator isn’t growing as fast and the infections in the last few weeks take their toll. Hopefully it will settle at 1-1.5%.
It would be nice to see the infection rates drop through the 1% plateau the model predicts but it’s been pretty accurate so far. If it’s right it’s going to be a long year.
 
WorkingClassRugger

WorkingClassRugger

David Codey (61)
tragic said:
Mortality rate is playing catch up now the denominator isn’t growing as fast and the infections in the last few weeks take their toll. Hopefully it will settle at 1-1.5%.
It would be nice to see the infection rates drop through the 1% plateau the model predicts but it’s been pretty accurate so far. If it’s right it’s going to be a long year.
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It will be interesting to see what happens if they manage to get case growth down to zero for an extended period. Not just a couple of days but weeks. Could permit a change in strategy in terms of how they manage the outbreak. Would be interested to see the modelling.

That said, there was a chance of killing off the Spanish flu after its 2nd wave but rushed reopening society which saw a deadly 3rd wave. So.
 
Pfitzy

Pfitzy

George Gregan (70)
Yesterday was 1.8% growth - lowest since Feb.

Total of 107 new cases identified which is the lowest case count increase since we crossed 500 cases identified in mid March.
 
Garry Owens

Garry Owens

Alan Cameron (40)
Up the Guts said:
We know from previous pandemics that performance in the first wave is negatively correlated with performance in the second wave. Obviously, it is much easier to track cases now so that relationship may not be as strong.

There is a chance Australia can beat the virus via lockdowns, given our apparent low community transmissions compared to North America and Europe, but it is unlikely we see total eradication. Countries with higher proportions of their population infected in their first wave are likely able to ease lockdown measures more quickly and ramp them up more slowly as more of the population is immune. Australia will have to be more stringent given a smaller fraction of the population have had the virus.

I am not trying to make a value judgment on optimal outcomes/policies just stating how I see the unravellings of lockdowns play out.
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Australia will stay tight through the next 2-3 months and cautiously phase back in very slowly. The main thing is to make it through the middle of Winter and make sure management of re-boot and phase in , economically , equals load management capacity in the health sector ( with a very wide margin )

The Northern Hemisphere is more at risk of 2nd and 3rd Waves than we are heading into their Autumn and Winters in 6 months , if , as we are led to believe we are 12 or so months away from treatment / vaccine
 
Up the Guts

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
Garry Owens said:
Australia will stay tight through the next 2-3 months and cautiously phase back in very slowly. The main thing is to make it through the middle of Winter and make sure management of re-boot and phase in , economically , equals load management capacity in the health sector ( with a very wide margin )

The Northern Hemisphere is more at risk of 2nd and 3rd Waves than we are heading into their Autumn and Winters in 6 months , if , as we are led to believe we are 12 or so months away from treatment / vaccine
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We’ll be shutdown till they raise the ICU bed capacity sufficiently. Then it will be about opening up to the extent that infection increases are manageable with herd immunity the goal.
 
Garry Owens

Garry Owens

Alan Cameron (40)
Up the Guts said:
We’ll be shutdown till they raise the ICU bed capacity sufficiently. Then it will be about opening up to the extent that infection increases are manageable with herd immunity the goal.
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4,000 beds by the end of May right? (double capacity)

Or so said Greg Hunt a week or so ago
 
Rob42

Rob42

John Solomon (38)
I'm intrigued that the positive test rate remains so stable. Looking at the NSW figures for the past week or more, they've been unwavering, ticking slowly up from 1.9% to 2.1%. With all the variabilities of a disease outbreak like this, that figure seems amazingly stable. Why is that?
 
Garry Owens

Garry Owens

Alan Cameron (40)
If <10,000 recorded infections and <1,000 live cases are the goal by the end of May then this roughly translates to managing projected need of < 50 ICU Beds or roughly 2.5% of current national capacity before you take into account a doubling of capacity within the next 2 months.

I guess the trillion dollar question is what is the target tolerance of live case load (in accepting it would expand in a gradual re-opening of things)
 
Teh Other Dave

Teh Other Dave

Alan Cameron (40)
There seems to be this fixation on ventilators and ICU beds. There are two major issues with this simplistic line of thinking: Firstly, staff need to be trained in ICU, particularly operating ventilators. Nurses and intensivists spend years in training, pulling staff from Cyclo's team and ward won't equate to an ICU registrar or nurse, it fills the ward with people who are learning on the run. Secondly, ICU and ventilation won't necessarily save patients, many will still die - in isolation.

Primary prevention (either through isolation or a vaccine) is still the best way to save lives.
 
Up the Guts

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
Teh Other Dave said:
There seems to be this fixation on ventilators and ICU beds. There are two major issues with this simplistic line of thinking: Firstly, staff need to be trained in ICU, particularly operating ventilators. Nurses and intensivists spend years in training, pulling staff from Cyclo's team and ward won't equate to an ICU registrar or nurse, it fills the ward with people who are learning on the run. Secondly, ICU and ventilation won't necessarily save patients, many will still die - in isolation.

Primary prevention (either through isolation or a vaccine) is still the best way to save lives.
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Nope, costs are marginal. Increasing ICU bed capacity doesn't require training new staff at any sort of comparable rate to the increase in beds.
 
Tex

Tex

Greg Davis (50)
Teh Other Dave said:
There seems to be this fixation on ventilators and ICU beds. There are two major issues with this simplistic line of thinking: Firstly, staff need to be trained in ICU, particularly operating ventilators. Nurses and intensivists spend years in training, pulling staff from Cyclo's team and ward won't equate to an ICU registrar or nurse, it fills the ward with people who are learning on the run. Secondly, ICU and ventilation won't necessarily save patients, many will still die - in isolation.

Primary prevention (either through isolation or a vaccine) is still the best way to save lives.
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A century on, the same as it ever was.
 
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