COVID-19 Stuff Here

[Pfitzy]

https://www.covid19data.com.au/deaths-recoveries

Cool - lists current cases and recoveries (and deaths, which is NOT cool).

But it is what the people asked for!

Today we're going along at just under 2% as of 6PM EST. Slightly higher than yesterday.

 

[cyclopath]

The wife got one of those knee pillows, and my immediate response was to point out that, if I got between her legs every night, I'd be a lot happier.

Last time I made that joke. The stitches are out.

What did she use as prostheses for you - a couple of lychees?

 

[Dismal Pillock]

The wife got one of those knee pillows, and my immediate response was to point out that, if I got between her legs every night, I'd be a lot happier.

It's a good line.

I'll be sure to use it next time she's around here.

 

[Teh Other Dave]

It's a good line.

I'll be sure to use it next time she's around here.

You mean as a way for her to find you amongst the columns of tentacle porn mags and spare Japanese toilets?

---

'Honey, I'm ducking out to buy some milk. On an unrelated topic, have you seen my passport and Japanese phrase book?'

 

[Lindommer]

Our wallopers here in New South Wales have put out a notice driving with mum on yer Ls won't get you into trouble. I'd wager that fine will eventually be dropped when common sense kicks in, there again, it did happen in Victoria involving their police. Luckily, the young lady wasn't shot.

And it was.

 

[Dctarget]

Day 26 Scoreboard for Tuesday 7th April (8:40pm data):
5,919 total Australian confirmed cases.
124 new
+2% single day increase.
TODAY WE LOWERED THE CURVE (-1%)
+2% daily increase (rolling 3 day average).
Today we earned our third Suppression Flag by maintaining the 3 day average growth rate at or below 3%. Given that we have also maintained our confirmed case growth at or below 3% for 3 out of 4 consecutive days, this signals that we have entered…
Phase 3: Suppression


Over our 15 day long Mitigation Phase (which started on the 24th of March) we averaged a -1.5% daily rate of reduction of cases. We have reduced our daily case growth (3 day average) from +24% to +2% today.
8 new deaths in the past 24 hours means that the

AU death toll has now risen to 48.​

 

[Dctarget]

In this phase, our model estimates our potential future case growth at 1%, 2% and 3% per day, with these growth rates remaining steady into the future. These rates will be indicated as Scenarios S1, S2 and S3 respectively.
Maintenance of the Suppression phase cannot be assumed. A return to Phase 1: Exponential Growth phase would be signalled by three out of four days with an increase in the 3 day average growth of 1% or more (i.e. the reverse of our Mitigation flags).

 

[Up the Guts]

Dr Birx has just confirmed anyone dying with the virus in the US is being added to the total fatality count.

In better news, Stanford scientists have rolled out antibody testing in California and are waiting to collect the samples. They are planning to sample across the country to get a better idea of the death rates.

 

[Braveheart81]

Dr Birx has just confirmed anyone dying with the virus in the US is being added to the total fatality count.

One thing that needs to be considered with all these statistics is how representative they are of reality.

This graphic came out a few days ago and is relevant. As you can see, the actual extent of COVID-19 related deaths in regions that have had their hospitals overwhelmed will likely be far higher than official figures.

Some of those excess deaths are not going to be specifically due to COVID-19 but other issues which would ordinarily be treated in a hospital but aren't being attended to at the moment.

Most will be COVID-19 though but because they didn't have a test and get admitted to hospital, they aren't an official case/death at this time.

On the other end of the spectrum some of the far right pundits in the US in particular are trying to argue that the number of deaths is being overstated because the official cause of death should be something else like pneumonia or heart failure etc. but they are all being counted as COVID-19 deaths. This line of argument is clearly misleading because it's the same as saying that zero people have died as a result of AIDS because that isn't the cause of death.

 

[Braveheart81]

Dr Birx has just confirmed anyone dying with the virus in the US is being added to the total fatality count.

This from New York:

 

[Tex]

Here's the official modelling presented to the government in the early stages that informed policy making.

https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/McVernon_Modelling_COVID-19_07Apr1_with_appendix.pdf

It presents the potential for a catastrophic spread of the disease that would overwhelm the health system, and offers likely scenarios outlining what would happen if different stages of intervention were applied.

 

[Up the Guts]

On the other end of the spectrum some of the far right pundits in the US in particular are trying to argue that the number of deaths is being overstated because the official cause of death should be something else like pneumonia or heart failure etc. but they are all being counted as COVID-19 deaths. This line of argument is clearly misleading because it's the same as saying that zero people have died as a result of AIDS because that isn't the cause of death.

I haven't heard any reports of pundits saying that, however, there is well-documented concern amongst the scientific community that those dying with COVID-19 are being recorded as deaths from COVID-19 in national databases regardless of the ultimate cause of death. Your AIDS example is quite pertinent, under current practices if someone is already in a critical condition from AIDs complications and also has the coronavirus then their death will be recorded in national databases as being from the coronavirus whether or not this is the ultimate cause of death the treating doctor cites on their death certificate. Obviously, as you point out, this is ridiculous and in general those with severe underlying conditions who die from complications with the flu or pneumonia do not have their deaths attributed to the flu or pneumonia in national databases.

I understand your point about people dying at home and that this may mean some coronavirus deaths are missed. Clearly, this is problematic in trying to gauge an accurate death rate. However, this doesn't take away from the fact that there are issues with overestimating deaths by poor record keeping from national databases, you don't cancel out bad statistical measures by implementing bad statistical measures on the other side of the equation.

 

[Kenny Powers]

What will be interesting on the other side of this is will governments move on cigarettes (as in ban them) and a sugar tax? There is a lot of reporting around a high percentage of deaths and intensive care cases already having other underlying health conditions some of which are preventable primarily smoking and most Type 2 Diabetes.

So does the government move to gradually phase out cigarettes to a total ban and tax high sugar foods? Does the reduction in individual liberties outweigh the burden of a Covid19 type situation on society?

 

[Derpus]

Hey so what do we do if we can't develop a vaccine?

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

What will be interesting on the other side of this is will governments move on cigarettes (as in ban them) and a sugar tax? There is a lot of reporting around a high percentage of deaths and intensive care cases already having other underlying health conditions some of which are preventable primarily smoking and most Type 2 Diabetes.

So does the government move to gradually phase out cigarettes to a total ban and tax high sugar foods? Does the reduction in individual liberties outweigh the burden of a Covid19 type situation on society?

Re: cigarettes, NZ has an official "Smokefree By 2025" policy yet a factory in Lower Hutt that makes the things is still operating on the basis they supply to supermarkets & are therefore part of that Essential Service category. Was odd seeing our overtly anti-tobacco Health Minister being forced to publicly defend what many saw as an clear anomaly in the definition of "essential"!

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

Hey so what do we do if we can't develop a vaccine?

Look to develop more effective treatment options.

 

[Tex]

Here's a paper published recently that estimates the basic reproduction number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 to be 5.7, which is far higher than earlier models suggested.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/2...20mA1dJmE_VoHJBVm-NCf9Oe6hRGmM9mD9aMw0M7VrDuY

For reference (from Wiki):

Disease R0​

Measles 12–18​

Chickenpox 10–12​

Polio 5-7​

Rubella 5–7​

Mumps 4–7​

Pertussis 5.5​

Smallpox 3.5–6​

HIV/AIDS 2–5​

SARS 2–5​

Common Cold 2–3​

Diphtheria 1.7–4.3​

Influenza​

(1918 pandemic strain) 1.4–2.8​

Ebola (2014 Ebola outbreak) 1.5–2.5​

Influenza (2009 pandemic strain) 1.4–1.6​

Influenza (seasonal strains) Airborne droplet 0.9–2.1​

MERS 0.3–0.8​

 

[Tex]

A potentially good news piece with research testing the effectiveness of plasma therapy in severe (ICU/ventilated) COVID-19 patients. Shared by my big brain uncle, who's a retired research scientist in this field.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/...Eq9hG4ctsuLBx9fcvPlMMKsEo9j4KEyshpikqSA6lPtvQ

'COVID-19 is currently a big threat to global health. However, no specific antiviral agents are available for its treatment. In this work, we explore the feasibility of convalescent plasma (CP) transfusion to rescue severe patients. The results from 10 severe adult cases showed that one dose (200 mL) of CP was well tolerated and could significantly increase or maintain the neutralizing antibodies at a high level, leading to disappearance of viremia in 7 d. Meanwhile, clinical symptoms and paraclinical criteria rapidly improved within 3 d. Radiological examination showed varying degrees of absorption of lung lesions within 7 d. These results indicate that CP can serve as a promising rescue option for severe COVID-19, while the randomized trial is warranted.'

 

[formerflanker]

What will be interesting on the other side of this is will governments move on cigarettes (as in ban them) and a sugar tax? There is a lot of reporting around a high percentage of deaths and intensive care cases already having other underlying health conditions some of which are preventable primarily smoking and most Type 2 Diabetes.

So does the government move to gradually phase out cigarettes to a total ban and tax high sugar foods? Does the reduction in individual liberties outweigh the burden of a Covid19 type situation on society?

The state should stay out of peoples' choices about cigarettes and sugar. Those are individual decisions and should be left at that.
Getting the Wuhan Flu is not a choice. The difficult decision for our governments is at what level do we stop the lockdown on the economy and individual liberties and let the public make their own choices about risking contracting the virus.
We already allow people to travel, meet, and congregate despite road deaths and influenza deaths. At some stage we must have the freedom to participate in Australian society despite the risk of contracting another deadly virus.

 

[Braveheart81]

We already allow people to travel, meet, and congregate despite road deaths and influenza deaths. At some stage we must have the freedom to participate in Australian society despite the risk of contracting another deadly virus.

Yes, but look at the efforts taken to mitigate the numbers of road and influenza deaths.

Currently there is only one measure we have to limit the spread of the pandemic and that is reducing the contact we have with other people as much as possible.

At some point we will start gradually relaxing the measures we have in place but it will be on the basis that we have limited the number of new cases enough to make it safe (and if it leads to a substantial rise in case numbers we will reintroduce them).

The reality is that there is not really an achievable midpoint between trying to avoid new cases of COVID-19 altogether and allowing it to run rampant. The exponential nature of the way the virus spreads essentially makes it akin to an uncontrollable reaction.