Wallabies 2023

[RugbyReg]

Thought I'd have a crack at building a team off Reg's stats to see if the stats align with what we and the selectors think.

WALLABIES STATS XXIII
1. James Slipper (best LHP in Tackle, Work Rate, Defensive King, and Uh-Oh as in least stuff-ups)
2. Longeran
3. Fa'amausili
4. Canham
5. Frost
6. Gleeson
7. McReight
8. Wilson
9. Fines-Leleiwasa
10. Gordon
11. Nawaqanitawase
12. Stewart
13. Foketi
14. Toole
15. Kellaway
16. Vailanu
17. Matt Gibbon (best LHP in Attack Inflluence, Disrupter)
18. Johnson-Holmes
19. Neville
20. Wilkin
21. J. Gordon
22. Kuenzle
23. Pulu

No loose heads received positive points

I summed the inverse ranking of each player, so Stewart got 1 in work rate, he gets 10 points. Petaia got 8 in disruptor he gets 3 points. Then I subtracted the Uh Oh ranking from their total. Honourable mention to Hodge & Van Nek who received -7 and -9 points each.

Caveats
- This rates all categories for all positions the same. For instance Hamish Stewart is easily the best centre off stats but that's all off a high involvement and good defense, he doesn't feature at all in the attacking rankings and maybe that's something you as a coach would want in a centre, so you' favour it more.

- These stats don't favour scrumhalves or props (props dominate the uh oh category). Fa'amausili was really the only prop who genuinely scored, same as Fines-Leleiwasa for scrumhalves. Assuming Ala'alatoa hasn't played enough, though interesting to see where is Slipper. Also where's Ikitau?

filled the gap for you

 

[7137]

Like it except for a few things for me:
- Don't know what Hanigan brings that Leota doesn't

Functional Achillies tendons.

 

[Slim 293]

Functional Achillies tendons.

But concussions...

 

[qwerty51]

The reason I'd pick Hanigan over Leota is if Holloway went down, I'd be more comfortable with Hanigan @ 6 over Leota assuming Skelton is at lock. For me, you're picking your RWC squad based on the best 23 and then the best back ups to those specific players.

After watching La Rochelle's recent matches against Saracens and Exeter - Skelton is the first picked for me. If we're to survive England in the quarters we need him.

 

[Dctarget]

The reason I'd pick Hanigan over Leota is if Holloway went down, I'd be more comfortable with Hanigan @ 6 over Leota assuming Skelton is at lock. For me, you're picking your RWC squad based on the best 23 and then the best back ups to those specific players.

After watching La Rochelle's recent matches against Saracens and Exeter - he's the first picked for me. If we're to survive England in the quarters we need him.

Let's hope Rob comes back to playing soon because I think he's pretty lethal at the lineout, we can watch and see

 

[qwerty51]

Let's hope Rob comes back to playing soon because I think he's pretty lethal at the lineout, we can watch and see

I don't think he's bad at all but does he have Hanigan's defensive ability to read and get up? I'll will keep a close eye on him when he returns though. I just don't think we need his extra carrying ability too if we're playing Skelton, Valetini, Gleeson too. I'd prefer someone stronger at defending mauls and lineouts and tiny extra height in the pack.

 

[Lightblue]

Thought I'd have a crack at building a team off Reg's stats to see if the stats align with what we and the selectors think.

WALLABIES STATS XXIII
1.
2. Longeran
3. Fa'amausili
4. Canham
5. Frost
6. Gleeson
7. McReight
8. Wilson
9. Fines-Leleiwasa
10. Gordon
11. Nawaqanitawase
12. Stewart
13. Foketi
14. Toole
15. Kellaway
16. Vailanu
17.
18. Johnson-Holmes
19. Neville
20. Wilkin
21. J. Gordon
22. Kuenzle
23. Pulu

No loose heads received positive points

I summed the inverse ranking of each player, so Stewart got 1 in work rate, he gets 10 points. Petaia got 8 in disruptor he gets 3 points. Then I subtracted the Uh Oh ranking from their total. Honourable mention to Hodge & Van Nek who received -7 and -9 points each.

Caveats
- This rates all categories for all positions the same. For instance Hamish Stewart is easily the best centre off stats but that's all off a high involvement and good defense, he doesn't feature at all in the attacking rankings and maybe that's something you as a coach would want in a centre, so you' favour it more.

- These stats don't favour scrumhalves or props (props dominate the uh oh category). Fa'amausili was really the only prop who genuinely scored, same as Fines-Leleiwasa for scrumhalves. Assuming Ala'alatoa hasn't played enough, though interesting to see where is Slipper. Also where's Ikitau?

Interesting, however Edd

My RWC squad with a 19 / 14 split. Bracketed are next guys up if injuries occur.

LHP: Bell, Slipper, Gibbon [Sio]
Hookers: Porecki, Mafi, Uelese [Lonergan/Fainga'a]
THP: Tupou, Ala'alatoa, Pone [HJ-H]
Locks: Frost, Skelton, Phillip, Rodda [Richie Arnold]
Backrow: Valetini, Holloway, Gleeson, Wilkin, Hanigan, Wilson [Wright/Leota]
Scrumhalves: White, Lonergan, McDermott [J Gordon]
Flyhalves: Quade, Foley [C Gordon]
Centres: Kerevi, Ikitau, Foketi, Hodge [JO'C]
Outside backs: Korobiete, Kellaway, Wright, Petaia, Mark Na. [Pietsch]

Backrow was the toughest, thinking below. No room for midgets Hooper and McReight for me.

6. Holloway | Hanigan
7. Gleeson | Wilkin
8. Valetini | Wilson

Look at these stats, we stand no chance against Ireland, France, NZ & SA with small 7s.

Hooper - 1.82
McReight - 1.84
--
Wilkin - 1.87
Gleeson - 1.88

Kolisi - 1.88
Papalii - 1.93
Josh vdF - 1.88
Cros - 1.90
Jelonch - 1.95

I sure hope Cooper is ok by then… will have had no Tests under his belt and his injury I suspect won’t make him super confident having a dash mid game? Don’t think they will pick Foley and Cooper.
Hooper and McReight will definitely be there.

 

[qwerty51]

Quade is on track to play in the TRC is he not? I read he's going to play for his club soon (or else they wouldn't have bothered trying to make him eligible) He's going to be match ready before Bell & Tupou and Kerevi(?)

 

[Braveheart81]

Quade is on track to play in the TRC is he not? I read he's going to play for his club soon (or else they wouldn't have bothered trying to make him eligible)

We'll find out if he plays in their first relegation match this Sunday.

 

[The Red Baron]

I would be very surprised if Hooper isn't starting...

Haven't you been reading mate? Hooper isn't 7ft tall and 120kg, so he's not big enough.

 

[upthereds#!]

Waiting to see if Rodda comes good, but Frost has a big head start and Eddie likes Ritchie. Need the big locks with a smaller starting front row. With the mobility in the 2nd and back row coming on to balance the big dog finisher front rowers. Skelton doesn't offer the running game off the bench (great article on the roar) but Frost could really shake things up in the last 30.

1. Slipper 2. Porecki 3. Ala'alatoa
4. Arnold 5. Skelton
6. Holloway 8. Valetini 7. Hoops
9. White 10. Quade 11. Koroibete 12. Kerevi 13. Ikitau 14. Kellaway 15. Wright
16. Fainga'a 17. Bell 18. Tupou 19. Frost 20. Samu 21. Mcdermott 22. Hodge 23. Petaia

24. Lonergan 25. pone 26. Leota 27. Gleeson 28. Mcreight 29. Gordon 30. Gordon 31. Paisami 32. Hodge 33. MarkyMark

Note: Depending on split and how Holloway is seen, Leota may give way to Rodda or Philip.

 

[qwerty51]

Haven't you been reading mate? Hooper isn't 7ft tall and 120kg, so he's not big enough.

You know it’s entirely possible in 2023 he actually is considered too small and previous performances in Test rugby are irrelevant? The trend of players getting bigger is a real thing, Test packs are more than 50kg heavier than they were 10 years ago. Every year the average has increased and going to lose power as he ages.

That’s just size, then there’s the difference in how the game is being and played and refereed which changes the effectiveness of pilfers. The ‘no hands on the ground’ interpretation has definitely nullified geniune fetchers effectiveness.

There’s a reason Kolisi is favoured over Kwagga Smith who would be the only other small 7 in Test rugby. Who else is performing well at Test level as a small 7 right now?

 

[Members Section]

If Leota is fit he is ahead of JH, for me R Lonergan plays before JG. We all saw last yr every time JG played under pressure go to water & either get carded or make desisions that put the result in doubt he is simply not upto test level

 

[qwerty51]

If Leota is fit he is ahead of JH,

Not better at lineout calling, not better at running a defensive lineout, not better at maul defence..

 

[Members Section]

Not better at lineout calling, not better at running a defensive lineout, not better at maul defence..

I dont agree with the 1st 2 & he offers a lot more in contact & a break down than JH, there are a lot more breakdowns than mauls

 

[qwerty51]

I dont agree with the 1st 2 & he offers a lot more in contact & a break down than JH, there are a lot more breakdowns than mauls

Breakdowns don’t directly lead to tries…

 

[The Red Baron]

You know it’s entirely possible in 2023 he actually is considered too small and previous performances in Test rugby are irrelevant? The trend of players getting bigger is a real thing, Test packs are more than 50kg heavier than they were 10 years ago. Every year the average has increased and going to lose power as he ages.

That’s just size, then there’s the difference in how the game is being and played and refereed which changes the effectiveness of pilfers. The ‘no hands on the ground’ interpretation has definitely nullified geniune fetchers effectiveness.

There’s a reason Kolisi is favoured over Kwagga Smith who would be the only other small 7 in Test rugby. Who else is performing well at Test level as a small 7 right now?

Sam Cane.

Seeing as you brought up South Africa, I checked the pack weights for the South African 2011 RWC QF team and the 2019 RWC Final team. The difference in pack weights was 19kg. South Africa have hardly ever played a small ball 7, because that's not the style of rugby that South Africa play. Interestingly, Heinrich Brussow, one of the best fetchers about at the time who could hardly get a game with the boks, was only 2kg lighter than Kolisi.

South Africa aside, you are watching way too much northern hemisphere rugby and thinking that their style is applicable to ours. This size fetish of yours is blinding you to the fact that if we try to compete with sides like England and South Africa in their areas of strength, it will end in tears.

 

[qwerty51]

Sam Cane is no chance play 7 for NZ. It’s either Savea or Dalton. And he’s got size on him albeit not tall.

Ireland and France and literally better than SA and NZ. I have no idea what your point is there, their style clearly works and is the best right now.

 

[The Red Baron]

Isn't Cane the current AB skipper? Why wouldn't he play?

My point is that this fetish on size and the power game isn't going to work for us. Australia trying to emulate Ireland or France with the cattle we have isn't going to work. I brought up the SA pack size because you used Kolisi to illustrate a some point.

Honestly, I'm done with you on this. You aren't going to change your mind, and I'm not going to change mine.

 

[qwerty51]

We do have cattle though? That’s the point of picking those players. If you agree our style is more similar to NZ and they lost to Ire & Fra what’s the point in trying to replicate that?

Only NZ and Eng have knocked us out of the RWC since 1995. All 3 times England monstered our pack.

Who are we likely to play in the quarters again? Who dominated NZ last RWC in the semi?

Not beefing up the pack could be an incredibly naive thing to do this RWC. Thankfully I have faith Eddie is aware of current Test rugby trends and what works and doesn’t.