France vs Wallabies, EOYT 2010

[DPK]

Heard a rumour that JOC (James O'Connor) is kicking because Barnes has a niggling injury persisting from the Italy game. Can anyone confirm?

 

[Groucho]

The only difference between their tackling percentages is that Giteau's success rate is higher.

Their tackling percentages might be equivalent, but Barnes is a much stronger tackler. He takes players on whereas Gits takes them effectively (but more passively) low. That can (and often does) mean the difference between a midfield runner making the gain line or not.

 

[daz]

How much of a goose is Robbie?

*Ahem* Well, if the weekend goes badly and Robbie is indeed made to look like a goose, he would start to look very attractive to the 80,000 Frenchies in attendance. Surely one of them will be a foie gras or pâté chef....

You know...pâté? Foie Gras? Goose liver? Good for nothing but...French food? See what I did there with Scarfy's post? Ah, forget it....

Another beer waiter, fucking toot sweet. Merci.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

FUCK!

I wish I knew that stupid Robbie has got JOC (James O'Connor) kicking goals before I put my tips in. I'm on the Wobs by 5, but not having a proper goal-kicker is about a -6 value. How much of a goose is Robbie? There's no fucking end to the ways he can piss me off.

You're pissed of?
How do you think I feel with Rugbysmartarse not only pinching 1/2 my avatar, but seems as if he is yet another of my relatives ( along with La Jarse, Bar Jarse, and Thai Tarse.

BTW welcome aboard to the good ship Gaggerland, Rugbysmartarse.

 

[sudrugby]

sudrugby

I hope you are right from our point of view. I saw Traille play some comic games at flyhalf for Biarritz last season - or maybe it was the season before. He looked like a cow playing the piano. He didn't embarrass himself against Argentina so let's see how he goes. He is certainly not a ball player but he may be handy to boot the ball 50 metres every time if it is raining or snowing.

It was a strange choice wasn't it? I know that Trinh-Duc was injured and Skrela hears voices, but others could have been used. I'm not sure who else is iinjured but Boyet, Wiznieski (is he fit now ?), Beauxis and Courrent would have been better than Traille. I'd even use Yachilli there first. The coach has a long game going which I don't understand. What do the French press say about it?

As I mentioned before: Rougerie has played 13 for Clermont a bit this year but he's always been a winger for France before last weekend. What are the French opinions about his playing him at 13?

The funny things about this two guys is that they can be pretty bad at many games, they will always have the confidence of the coaches whereas a guy like Skrela is dropped from the team when he misses a kick. Wisniewski is not fit yet, but Beauxis is available. His kicking abilities are much better than Traille's one.
Regardind Rougerie he has never been considered as the best winger we had. When he started playing people where considering him as the "white Lomu" but he has no skills. Now he is too slow on the wing (Malzieu and Nalaga are also stronger than him in Clermont) so he's playing as an OC. It is OK in Top 14 even if Clermont is not so great this year. But he doesn't have the level for the national team.
When I see that guys like Clerc, Poitrenaud, Bastareaud, Heymans, Malzieu were not even selected and that Medard is not even on the bench... it's unbelievable.

And last news, Nallet is injured and probably Domingo as well... so "Ze Scrum" won't be the one you are expecting.

 

[Lee Grant]

sudrugby

Agree - I wrote earlier that it was strange that Lièvremont chose those inexperienced wingers though I wasn't sure who was injured. I thought that Medard was hurt against Fiji but it didn't look too serious. As for Rougerie at 13: using him there against Argentina is one thing but to use him against a high ranked team like Oz is strange when Marty played against Fiji. He may be injured too though.

I think that Lièvremont is using the inexperienced wingers, and Rougerie at 13, simply as an experiment against Oz as his medium term aim is the 6N. On the other hand it could be that he is banking on the weight of his 2 centres to go through us like England did a few times. What do you think the coach's reasons are?

I wouldn't be too concerned about Nallet missing the test match with Thion and Millo-Chluski in the squad but the loss of LHP Domingo is a blow. He did a lot better for France after Barcella was injured a long time ago than I thought he would. LHP Schuster will come into the starting team instead, but I think our THP Alexander will have a better game than if he was going against Domingo.

The Top14 organisation is to be congratulated for the initiative of requiring 2 props to be on the reserves in an 8 man bench. There may be a problem when the national team plays though. When a Top14 team has 2 LHPs and 2 THPs in their 23 all the time, then props don't get to play on the other side of the scrum very much.

So what happens if Schuster starts and is injured during the game? The new reserve prop will probably be big bopper Dulcacon, but he, like Mas, is a specialist THP. I can't remember either of them playing on the LH side of the scrum; can you?

Or is that talk about the props not playing much on the other side nonsense?

 

[Langthorne]

Maybe Lièvremont is trying to outdo Deans in the puzzling selections department

 

[Hugh Jarse]

....snip......

I think that Lièvremont is using the inexperienced wingers, and Rougerie at 13, simply as an experiment against Oz as his medium term aim is the 6N. ........

Maybe Lièvremont is trying to outdo Deans in the puzzling selections department

I reckon Lee has hit the nail on the head. The Frogs have the rest of their domestic season to tweak the Tricolours. Plenty of time to experiment with combinations in the buildup. Lièvremont's selections are cromulent given these circumstances.

Conversely this is really it for Dingo. Following their return to our fair shores after the EOYT and their xmas break, RWC finalisation mode kicks in for the Wobs. The next games played by the Wobs will be RWC11 preparatory ones. No time for fartarsing around. This time it will be for real.

 

[fatprop]

Yeesh that ball to Mitchell was a dog, That's one of the reasons I'm ambivalent about seeing him there ...

Don't get me wrong, I've been a Barnes Booster since he was a Bronco, but this tour has not been an opportunity taken. Not that deans has given him a lot of opportunity. He has been at best servicable ball in hand, and often less than. For all of the strengths in his game.

The execution was average, but it was the correct option

 

[Joe Blow]

I reckon Lee has hit the nail on the head. The Frogs have the rest of their domestic season to tweak the Tricolours. Plenty of time to experiment with combinations in the buildup. Lièvremont's selections are cromulent given these circumstances.

Conversely this is really it for Dingo. Following their return to our fair shores after the EOYT and their xmas break, RWC finalisation mode kicks in for the Wobs. The next games played by the Wobs will be RWC11 preparatory ones. No time for fartarsing around. This time it will be for real.

and I reckon we are undercooked

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I reckon Lee has hit the nail on the head. The Frogs have the rest of their domestic season to tweak the Tricolours. Plenty of time to experiment with combinations in the buildup. Lièvremont's selections are cromulent given these circumstances.

Do you feel they will embiggen their chances of winning the 6N, these selections?

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Do you feel they will embiggen their chances of winning the 6N, these selections?

I don’t think this is about embiggening the Garlic Munchers tilt at the 6N, quite the opposite in fact. One could almost consider this a 6N disembiggermentarianism move by Lièvremont. Experimentation by Lièvremont - yes, but I feel it is a horses for courses selection by him. He has decided that the schwerpunkt is Quade Cooper and has selected a team of big ugly bastards to achieve that.

If he can get schadenfreude by targeting QC (Quade Cooper) with his monsters, then he will unmotivate Dingo to keep him in the RWC11 Squad. As our mercurial gamebreaker, if Lièvremont can get QC (Quade Cooper) disincluded in the Wobs RWC squad, then it will be to the betterment of all RWC teams less the Wobs. As an unpredictable player, QC (Quade Cooper) poses danger and presents discertainty for opposition coaches, making it harder for them to develop their game plans. Most textbook defenders struggle to deal with the saccade like jinking runs of QC (Quade Cooper) on attack. Much easier for the opposition if Dingo is deincentivised from including QC (Quade Cooper) in the RWC squad.

Weak inside backs are not characteristic of 6N, but the Garlic Munchers are likely to come up against these at RWC. Lièvremont is simply trying to experiment with his cattle to give him more options and flexibility in his RWC11 squad. The likely opposition and NZ conditions suggest that a capability grab bag approach will be needed in the squad to give the selectors and coaches the flexibility and options they will need.

 

[JJJ]

Fun fact: if we lose by 16+ points and England win by any margin we drop to 5th on the rankings. When were we last that low? A weather-affected low-scoring game in France may be a blessing in disguise.

 

[Reddy!]

Wow cool fact JJJ. I don't, however, want to draw any comparisons to the Australian Cricket Team if we drop to 5th. Anyway - I think the last time we were that low was either just after the 2007 RWC or at some stage last year.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

And if the Frogs beat us by less than 15 points, with the Poms winning by less than 15, the Frogs go to 5th and we stay 2nd.

IRB ratings for 2-5 are extremely fickle at the moment.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I don’t think this is about embiggening the Garlic Munchers tilt at the 6N, quite the opposite in fact. One could almost consider this a 6N disembiggermentarianism move by Lièvremont. Experimentation by Lièvremont - yes, but I feel it is a horses for courses selection by him. He has decided that the schwerpunkt is Quade Cooper and has selected a team of big ugly bastards to achieve that.

If he can get schadenfreude by targeting QC (Quade Cooper) with his monsters, then he will unmotivate Dingo to keep him in the RWC11 Squad. As our mercurial gamebreaker, if Lièvremont can get QC (Quade Cooper) disincluded in the Wobs RWC squad, then it will be to the betterment of all RWC teams less the Wobs. As an unpredictable player, QC (Quade Cooper) poses danger and presents discertainty for opposition coaches, making it harder for them to develop their game plans.

Weak inside backs are not characteristic of 6N, but the Garlic Munchers are likely to come up against these at RWC. Lièvremont is simply trying to experiment with his cattle to give him more options and flexibility in his RWC11 squad. The likely opposition and NZ conditions suggest that a capability grab bag approach will be needed in the squad to give the selectors and coaches the flexibility and options they will need.

That was a quality reply, replete with a veritable surfeit of esoteric words.

 

[JJJ]

Sorry, equal 5th/6th with South Africa. In that scenario (England by 0-15, France by 16+) SA and Australia would both end up with 84.45 points, overtaken by England (84.48 ) and France (84.66).

That's if I'm reading this right: http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/606/A77380040

 

[Newter]

And if the Frogs beat us by less than 15 points, with the Poms winning by less than 15, the Frogs go to 5th and we stay 2nd.

IRB ratings for 2-5 are extremely fickle at the moment.

They seem accurate to me. We're still better than England and the Boks and would win most Tests against them.

The IRB explanation of the ratings is actually pretty fascinating. The formula they use is tested on all Test match results from 1871 to see if it's good at predicting which nation will win each Test, and they say it is quite reliable.

According to the formula, Les Bleus are a marginally better team than the Wallabies this week, but that's only because the match is being played in France. It's basically 50:50.

http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html

 

[Newter]

Also England should beat the Boks at home. The weighted rating difference is +1.31 to England.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

I tried to follow the IRB.com calculations. I'm probably wrong (La Jarse continually reminds me of this fact) but here goes.

England win by 15+, France win by 15+
NZ now 93.19 will stay in 1 regardless of result with Wales
Australia now 85.9 (2) will be 84.35 (4)
South Africa now 85.31 (3) will be 83.76 (5)
England now 83.61 (4) will be 85.216 (2)
France now 83.21 (5) will be 84.7565 (3)

England win by 15+, France win by <15
NZ now 93.19 will stay in 1 regardless of result with Wales
Australia now 85.9 (2) will be 84.869 (3)
South Africa now 85.31 (3) will be 83.76 (5)
England now 83.61 (4) will be 85.216 (2)
France now 83.21 (5) will be 84.241 (4)

England win by < 15, France win by <15
NZ now 93.19 will stay in 1 regardless of result with Wales
Australia now 85.9 (2) will be 84.869 (2)
South Africa now 85.31 (3) will be 84.279 (4)
England now 83.61 (4) will be 84.74 (3)
France now 83.21 (5) will be 84.241 (5)

England win by < 15, France win by 15+
NZ now 93.19 will stay in 1 regardless of result with Wales
Australia now 85.9 (2) will be 84.35 (4)
South Africa now 85.31 (3) will be 84.279 (5)
England now 83.61 (4) will be 84.74 (3)
France now 83.21 (5) will be 84.7565 (2)

Things stay pretty much the same as they are if Wobs and/or Saffers win, but the bottom line is that the ratings for IRB 2-5 are like a bees dick.

For the uninformed 15 point victory/loss is awarded with 1.5 times the normal rate in terms of IRB rankings. Very important if you are actually concerned with the ranking. Many aren't.