Woah, didn't manage to watch last nights stage but did some reading about it. Cadel couldn't be better placed right now before tonights monstrous climb that will more than likely determine the tour de france winner.
My thoughts on who to watch.
-Alberto Contador doesn't have the firepower to make up that much time in the very few stages he has left, if he really felt like he could win it we would have seen challenges alot earlier than the penultimate stage. Will make time up in TT on everyone other than Evans. I've written this guy off, but beware the sleeping champion.
-Sammy Sanchez seems a good choice for this stage as it's a climb and he's done all the attacking so far, if given a lead he will jump at the opportunity. This is probably the last stage where he can gain time and so look for early attacks from the EE team.
-Andy Schleck is the main worry for Evans I feel, he's still very close and has the ability to leave everyone in his wake, BUT he's very well marked. Feel as if there's some kind of monkey on the back for him as he tries to carry his brother and watch nemesis Contador. He won't lose time tonight, but I don't expect him to gain time on Evans unless he goes for an individual assault.
-Cadel Evans, perfectly placed right now. He's gaining time on Voeckler but I feel he won't want the yellow jersey just yet. He's looking more towards the TT for that honour and tonight will be simply a task of staying with the big boys, something he looks able to do. In excellent form, if he can stay within a minute of Andy, he will fancy himself in the TT and the race is basically over. Will be watching Contador like a hawk but I don't think that's his main rival right now with the time gap and this being one of the last mountain stages.
- Thomas Voeckler, our beloved yellow jersey holder. As we all expected he's losing mountains of time during these stages and will probably struggle to stay with the pace tonight. He's not really feared by any of the GC riders but he's showing some ticker, evidence suggests that tonight he will probably lose the little time he has left and we will see a new leader tomorrow.
- Frank Schleck is one that I'm not sure where to predict. He doesn't seem to be where he was and by all reports and evidence Andy is sacrificing himself to keep Frank within reaching distance. This is so they get the 1,2 finish. Doesn't look to be in form and with a series of big attacks coming tonight I think we could see him dropped off the back. Will need to attack himself a few times to allow Andy the opportunity but I can't see Frank making time tonight and his race looks to be pretty much over, with the exception of getting his brother the win. Other GC riders won't want him up there so look for him to be shaken off early.
- Ivan Basso, by far my favourite rider in this years tour, the guy simply doesn't seem to go away. He's got far too much time to make up tonight and isn't the climbing type but I expect him to stay within reaching distance. Seems to have a big heart and the workrate to compliment it, should be thereabouts in Paris. Won't be attacking too much tonight, expect to see him up leading towards the end but he's not a threat overall. Could use this to his advantage and gain a lead, but impossible to predict.
I'm not liking tonights stage if I'm Cadel Evans, everyone will need to be watched closely and alot of energy will be exerted. If Andy or Alberto break away I don't think he should panic, he has enough time and specialties in the bag to catch them later in the tour (so long as Andy doesn't get over a minute and Contador doesn't get over about 20sec). He needs to hope the pack stays together until the final climb and see how his legs feel, the other contenders will be throwing everything at him so it's important he doesn't get dropped off the pack of 7 or so riders that will be left by the final climb. The BMC boys need to stick with him for as long as possible and he can't be looking for a stage win.
Tonight's stage prediction: 1. Contador + 20sec A.Schleck + 30sec Evans, Sanchez, Basso + 2min Voeckler, F.Schleck
Yellow Jersey: 1. A.Schleck, + 16sec 2. Evans, 3. ??
