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Waratahs vs Reds - Round 1 - 2012R01

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Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
The more I look at the one-on-one match ups and the Waratahs injury list, the more I want to put a sneaky $100 on Queensland.

Daley vs Robinson= Robinson
Hanson vs Polota-Nau= Polota-Nau
Slipper vs Kepu= Even
Simmons vs Douglas= Simmons
Horwill vs Mumm= Horwill
Higginbotham vs Dennis= Even
Robinson vs McCutcheon= Robinson
Samo/Shatz vs Palu= Palu (if he plays to his potential)
Genia vs Pretorious= Genia
Harris vs Barnes= Barnes
Ioane vs KH= Ioane
Tapuai vs Carter= Tapuai
Fainga'a vs Horne= Horne
Shipperely vs Kingston= Shipperely
Morahan vs Ashley-Cooper= Even (given AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)'s injury).

Reds Bench vs Tahs Bench= Reds Bench

This sort of analysis is helpful but needs to be added to if it is to be complete. I'll take just one example of many to illustrate my point. Everyone, me included, thinks Taps has huge potential and could be another Tim Horan. But.... in matching up to Tom Carter he is playing against a 12 who has not been bested by anyone in Super Rugby and he has played against Nonu, SBW and de Villiers who would be three of the very best. I think that although Carter's attacking flair may not equal Taps that their battle on Saturday night may well end up with neither in the ascendancy.

I would point out that it will be Daley vs Kepu and Robinson vs Slipper when they pack down. In scrummaging at least this puts the whole Tah front row as superior to the Reds, though around the park it will be more even. I also expect that Douglas at TH lock might be at least scrummaging equal to Horwill, though Horwill is clearly superior around the park.

My main concern with the Tahs is that our top three wingers are out and we are going to replace them with two young, inexperienced players who are actually not wingers but who mainly play at 13. This weakness is so glaring that I'd actually play Trist this weekend with BKH on the bench, because Trist is more rugby mature and has played wing far more often, so he naturally knows where to stand in defence and where to run lines in attack without losing the half seconds they'll take to think it through.

I also think the Reds bench is significantly stronger in a number of key positions.

That said, if the Tahs forwards get on top, which I think they might, then the Reds will struggle no matter how much better their backs are. Few backlines operate well on back-foot ball. If it was not for the one piece of Cooper magic, the Brisbane game last year would have been a Tah win and a Red loss.
 
T

tranquility

Guest
But it wasn't I am afraid - and it is getting very tiring.

If it wasn't for a Palu run you would have lost. etc etc

See how nauseating it is?

Very well thought out prose other than that...
 

tigerland12

John Thornett (49)
Mind you I'm just too fucking lazy to write up my reasoning behind those comparisons:)
I'm thinking Digby and Morahan will have a field day if they get space out wide against the two inexperienced Tahs wingers. Carter and Horne will really need to shut down Taps and Harris early.
 

Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
But it wasn't I am afraid - and it is getting very tiring.

If it wasn't for a Palu run you would have lost. etc etc

See how nauseating it is?

Very well thought out prose other than that...

My point was obviously not clear.... However well the Reds defended in Brisbane last year, you would have to say the Tah forwards got on top, especially in the second half. They just couldn't finish off. But the team whose forwards get on top is usually the one that wins on the scoreboard. That it didn't turn out that way was down to one piece of extrordinary Cooper magic. That is unlikely to be repeated this time, though someone else like Ioane may pull it off. But the match in my opinion is very likely to rest on the forward battle, both in the tight and at the breakdown. That's where I think the Tahs will get on top, though its not one I have any certainty about. I think the result is on a knife-edge and the bookies odds are bollocks but I lean slightly towards the Tahs forwards getting the better of the battle.
 
T

tranquility

Guest
I could not agree in more earnest that it will be up to the forwards to determine who wins this game. I am just hoping that the experience of long international seasons on players like Slipper, Simmonds, Higginbum, Saia (if he plays) and even Horwill for that matter will have improved our pack from last season. Not in terms of body positions or positioning, but rather fair dinkum footy nous, physicality and composure. Should be a belter.
 

tigerland12

John Thornett (49)
The Reds tight forwards have had a lot more game time in the past 12 months in comparison to the Tahs. I can guarentee it will be alot more even then previous encounters.
My only major concern is Daley and Hanson's scrummaging, I really hope they have improved since last season because I feel Slipper mayaswell have been a one man army at scrum time last year.
 
W

Waylon

Guest
Tahs by 20

The Cooperless Queenslanders will stutter and splutter

The tah lineup looks pretty tasty. The tahs historically start well, get their fans in a lather after 5 rounds and then the wheels fall off
 

Bruce Ross

Ken Catchpole (46)
in matching up to Tom Carter he is playing against a 12 who has not been bested by anyone in Super Rugby and he has played against Nonu, SBW and de Villiers who would be three of the very best.

Spot on, Hawko. In this sense Carter is almost certainly the most consistent of all the Australian Super Rugby players. Whatever people's opinion of him, in terms of matching up to his opposite number, he "has not been bested by anyone in Super Rugby" over the four seasons since he made his debut in 2008, a period during which he has hardly missed a game. That's why it is so totally incomprehensible that he has never been selected in an Australian A squad, let only in a Wallabies squad.
 

No4918

John Hipwell (52)

Maybe referring to the injury he has had all career. You know the one that restricts movement in his left shoulder which means he can't pass, it did help with the strength in his right side though that makes that fend so good. Still, can't help but wonder how good he could have been without it.
 

emuarse

Desmond Connor (43)
With kick-off under a week away I thought it was time to have a proper match thread.

Given each sides current injuries, combined with the fact it's only the first round, I am expecting a pretty dour match that will be settled through goal kicking, but maybe that's the pessimist in me talking.

Injuries:

Queensland: Wallace-Harrison, McDuling, Humphries, Cooper, S.Fainga'a *, Higginbotham *, Davies*
*= Unsure on current injury status.

NSW: Vickerman, Elsom, Mitchell, Turner
Just a tad disappointing, tigerland12, that you start a thread very similar to 'Reds vs Waratahs - the war before the war', creating confusion for members with two almost identical threads.
Freedom of speech should always be encouraged, but not so cronyism
 

fatprop

George Gregan (70)
Staff member
My point was obviously not clear.... However well the Reds defended in Brisbane last year, you would have to say the Tah forwards got on top, especially in the second half. They just couldn't finish off. But the team whose forwards get on top is usually the one that wins on the scoreboard. That it didn't turn out that way was down to one piece of extrordinary Cooper magic. That is unlikely to be repeated this time, though someone else like Ioane may pull it off. But the match in my opinion is very likely to rest on the forward battle, both in the tight and at the breakdown. That's where I think the Tahs will get on top, though its not one I have any certainty about. I think the result is on a knife-edge and the bookies odds are bollocks but I lean slightly towards the Tahs forwards getting the better of the battle.

I expect/hope the Tahs to be a little bit smarter at converting pressure into points this year. Taking the points on offer and getting on with it.

The 3 million scrums for no return mindset was dumb, kick the penalty, go for the try or kick the drop kick and just keep ticking over the scoreboard
 

Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
Just a tad disappointing, tigerland12, that you start a thread very similar to 'Reds vs Waratahs - the war before the war', creating confusion for members with two almost identical threads.
Freedom of speech should always be encouraged, but not so cronyism

This thread was for those who wanted to rationally discuss how the game might go. The other thread was primarily designed to allow supporters to vent at the supposed inadequacies of the other team.
 

SuperGrover

Darby Loudon (17)
If I were a gambling man I would put money on the fact that Genia and Harris are going to put a tonne of pressure on Pretorius in defense. When you consider that Sarael missed one in every three tackle attempts last season its hard to imagine his channel will not bleed its fair share of points against the Reds.

Some interesting comments from the Tahs coaching staff regarding Pretorius' defensive frailties. Feel free to chalk them up to pre-match diversionary tactics if you will, but food for thought nonetheless.

HE'S no Quade Cooper so targeting Sarel Pretorius as a speed-hump in defence will be a waste of time.

That was the free advice on offer to Queensland from Scott Bowen yesterday as the NSW backs coach threw his support behind the defensive ticker of the Waratahs' new import.

Pretorius' bona fides as a quality attacking player have been more than proven in two impressive trial performances for the Waratahs but Queensland have already hinted they'll be looking for ways to test his tackling in their opening round clash with NSW at ANZ Stadium on Saturday.

Question marks about the defence of the Tahs' South African import have been raised since he tallied the most missed tackles (48) in Super Rugby last season while with the Cheetahs.

But Bowen said after going back through the tapes - and watching Pretorius in training - the stats are not an accurate reflection on the defensive capabilities of the 85kg No.9. "We have no issue or concern whatsoever with the way he defends," Bowen said.

"There's absolutely no lack of courage or commitment, it is just more a technique thing."
Interested more in his spark in attack and superb support play, Bowen said NSW had not heavily investigated Pretorius' defence prior to signing him. But after stories about his tackling surfaced based on the missed tackle stats, they dug deeper.

"This bloke is as tough as they come," Bowen said. "You look through them and it's because he's so quick he's getting up on players fast, he's charging up and coming through rucks. He can be too enthusiastic and get into position too early and get stepped. It's a bit like Nick Phipps, who is second on that list but is also a solid defender."

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sp...fine-by-waratahs/story-fnbzp42o-1226275152267
 
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