Numbers add up for Waratahs' down state
July 13, 2012
Paul Cully
It is almost over for the Waratahs. Eighty more minutes of a desperate season that might yet contain one final twist of the knife at the hands of traditional rivals who have something positive to play for.
Waratahs fans have already made their own conclusions about their side's failings: a lack of physicality at the contact area and a laboured attack feature heavily among the complaints. Various mitigating circumstances have been offered by the organisation in its defence, some more convincing than others.
But with one game to go in the regular season, do the grumbles of the disenchanted stack up?
Let's take a closer look at the statistics, starting with the most important facet of the modern game, the breakdown. And the Waratahs are at the wrong end of the Super Rugby table on almost every key indicator of breakdown clout.
In possession, they average 4.1 lost ruck or mauls per game this season, the second highest in the competition.
They concede a turnover in the ruck every four minutes and 57 seconds - that's the worst record in Super Rugby.
But what about when the opposition has the pill? It's a similar story.
On average, the Waratahs effect 2.4 ruck/maul steals per game, ranking them the second-least proficient outfit in this area. It takes the Waratahs nine minutes and 52 seconds per steal, which is a full three minutes greater than the average.
To compound the problem,
Michael Foley's side are conceding an average of 6.7 penalties at the ruck/maul, the second highest number this year, which also raises questions about accuracy and discipline.
Little wonder then that NSW's record against the Kiwi sides - who pour so much intensity into the breakdown - is a miserable 0-4 this year. The Tahs came into this season with a reputation of having a handy pack, but that view might have been out of date in opposition changing rooms.
It suggests - strongly - that the Waratahs have been passive in supporting the ball carrier and cleaning out their targets. The amount of slow or stationery ball they have produced this year backs that up. The sight of big men with low numbers loitering without any great intent has been no mirage. Punters are no mugs when they bemoan the lack of dynamism.
Dave Dennis, on his two ''dicky knees'' no less, will end the campaign with his head held high. Others have been up and down. Given their woes at the breakdown, it follows that the Waratahs' statistics on both attack and defence suffer.
The sky blue wall of strong Waratahs teams in the past is no more. NSW concede 2.5 tries per game, the sixth leakiest defence in Super Rugby.
The attack throws up a few surprises. The Waratahs run the ball 14.5 per cent of the time from five-eighth, which is a relative sign of adventure given their reputation. The Reds - deprived of their pilot Quade Cooper for much of the year - are at 11.1 per cent. NSW make 25.1 tactical kicks per game, lower than the average.
In fact, they are one of the teams that other sides apparently favour kicking to. They receive a kick every 37 seconds - only two sides are kicked to more - which might be an indication that oppositions fear little from their counterattack.
The Waratahs enjoy 52.1 per cent of possession but don't know what to do with it. They are second in the table of teams who complete more than 10 phases, but that is a sign of impotency rather than control. These days most tries - with lineout and scrums often the source - come within four phases.
It is not all bad news. To give as complete a picture as possible, the positives have to be included, too. Despite his suspect lineout throwing (the Tahs have the highest number of not-straight calls), Tatafu Polota-Nau is part of a rock-solid scrum. They concede fewer penalties in the set-piece than any other side.
It is one building block the Waratahs can use when they start planning for next year. But when the breakdown stats show they have been beaten in the collision, and for urgency, the size of that task becomes clear. The Waratahs, this year, have not worked.
Statistics provided by
ruckingoodstats.com
