2013 Giro d'Italia

[Ash]

To get an idea of the freezing conditions, here's a video of the Galibier being prepared for the riders:

 

[Braveheart81]

So there's 6 stages to go. Tonight and tomorrow night are both relatively flat and I expect will end in sprint finishes.

Of those two, tonight's stage is probably more conducive for a breakaway with an early climb that will let riders get away.

Thursday night has the uphill time trial which should be fun to watch.
Friday and Saturday are both monster mountain stages which will decide the race and then there's the victory lap flat stage on Sunday.

I personally can't see anyone but Nibali winning now. I think he's got too much of a lead and isn't likely to crack. It would be great to see Cadel get close though. Hopefully he's got plenty left in his legs.

 

[Ash]

So there's 6 stages to go. Tonight and tomorrow night are both relatively flat and I expect will end in sprint finishes.

Of those two, tonight's stage is probably more conducive for a breakaway with an early climb that will let riders get away.

Thursday night has the uphill time trial which should be fun to watch.
Friday and Saturday are both monster mountain stages which will decide the race and then there's the victory lap flat stage on Sunday.

I personally can't see anyone but Nibali winning now. I think he's got too much of a lead and isn't likely to crack. It would be great to see Cadel get close though. Hopefully he's got plenty left in his legs.

Yeah, my money is on Nibali now too.

Evans needs Nibali to have a bad day in the mountains, which is possible as Nibali has been holding his form since the Classics.

But, I think it's likely Evans will see a bad day too as his recovery ability will be deteriorating due to his age. If Evans hangs on to second, it's a fantastic achievement and one which many would have considered unbelievable when Evans entered the Giro.

Evans needs to take time on stage 19 or stage 20, but Evans' doesn't have the explosive ability required to attack and distance other climbers, so he really needs to hope that Nibali stumbles and that he can ride Nibali off his wheel.

Stage 19: A short stage at 139km, but it's all either up mountains or down mountains. All the climbs are asbolute beasts: 17.6km, 21km, 20.0km. They pass the highest point in the Giro in the second climb. I bet team Sky will put the hammer down on the second climb. Sky's strength will need to work in Evans' favour, as Sky will try to shed Nibali, Evans and Santambrogio to get Uran onto the podium.

Stage 20: A decent length at 203km, and 5 nasty climbs - 3 cat 2s, and 2 cat 1s (equivalent of 3 cat 1s and 2 HCs in TdF), although I'd almost classify the last cat 2 and last cat 1 all as one climb. While the last climb is not overly long, it is very steep for the last few km, and the first cat 1 climb is over 16km in length. The legs will be burning from the three huge climbs the previous day, so anyone who hasn't recovered enough will be burnt.

 

[Ash]

Interesting last few days. Bit of action on the transition stage, and Stantambrogio was the loser. Podium now looks set, assuming none of the three (Nibali, Evans and Uran) have a bad day. Cavendish didn't win the last stage as the final climb was too much for him, so Evans also now has a real chance of picking up the red points jersey as well. Evans sits just 3 points behind Cavendish, and the next three stages favour Evans, and the last stage Cavendish will likely win. If Evans can get within the top couple of places in two of the next three stages then he might steal the points jersey from Cavendish.

Unfortunately, it has been snowing in the Dolomite mountains, so the two key mountainous in the Giro may be neutered somewhat. Bizarre weather for the time of the year, which is really unfortunate. I think it's almost certain that they will be neutered.

Tonight's stage is the mountain timetrial (MTT). You don't see too many MTTs, so this should be good. The last MTT Evans rode was in the 2010 Giro on the Kronplatz. Evans, despite being sick, managed to come in in second place. However, there was a nasty section of the Kronplatz that favoured Evans: a steep (up to 24%!) non-asphalted section covered in a loose gravel. Here was the result for that day. Expect Nibali to give a better performance today than he did on the Kronplatz.

Here's the profile for tonight's MTT, up the Polsa:

A 19km climb, with about 1km of false flat at the start. Not overly steep, with the steepest ramp at 10%, and large sections averaging 6.6%. If Wiggins had been around, this sort of climb is his cup of tea: long, steady gradients that are not very steep.

Hopefully the MTT will favour Evans and he can take some time on Nibali, and not lose any time to Uran and Scarponi.

 

[Ash]

Here were the profiles of the next two stages.

Stage 19:

Stage 20:

Unfortunately, I don't think they will be able to find similar challenging stages on such short notice, although the Mortirolo may be available...

 

[Gagger]

So Ash - is Cadel in with a shout? What's best but realistic case scenario? (i.e. should I be staying up tonight?)

 

[cyclopath]

Looks like too much time to make up in 20km, albeit 20 frikkin' hard km. Bridge too far I think.

 

[Ash]

So Ash - is Cadel in with a shout? What's best but realistic case scenario? (i.e. should I be staying up tonight?)

Nope. He may get some time tonight, but it likely won't be much. Nibali is just as likely to take more time off of Evans.

Friday and Saturday should have been the days to watch, but the stages are going to be ruined thanks to the unseasonal snow. Big shame.

I'll post the new profiles of Friday's and Saturday's stages once they are announced.

edit: Best but realistic case scenario might be 20 - 30 seconds if Evans has a really good day. I would bet on it being close between Cadel and Nibbles, though.

 

[Ash]

Over the first 5km or so Nibali took 20s on Evans. Looks like Evans will lose some time tonight.

 

[Ash]

Uran slow at the first checkpoint, well back already. Scarponi was the fastest, so Uran may slip off the podium.

Samu Sanchez is currently holding the best time. Raining at the finish now, that will make it harder.

Meanwhile Nibali has taken an astonishing 1:23 out of Evans! Evans back in 22nd at the first checkpoint - shocking. Even worse than Uran. Evans may fall off the podium with this ride. If this is indicating his form for the following stage, he could tumble down the rankings.

 

[Ash]

Nibali, meanwhile, smashes it at the first checpoint, 30 seconds faster than everyone else.

Sanchez looking on nervously from the hot seat!

Nibali has won the Giro, without a doubt.

Hopefully Evans can turn it around in the second half, but the GPS shows him still leaking time quickly to Nibali.

 

[Ash]

If it continues like this, Nibali will catch Evans.

 

[Ash]

Nibali up 2 minutes on Evans.

Evans slipping significantly. Evans going to finish well back in the field, poor ride from him so far.

This ride will also cost Evans the red jersey, Cavendish favourite to hold onto that now.

 

[Ash]

Scarponi was in fourth, 3:53 back to Nibbles, 2:27 back to Evans. Scarponi faded in the second half, but it may be enough to take significant time out of Evans.....we will see. Good ride from Scarponi.

 

[Ash]

Uran with a good second, he has made up some of the time he lost. Uran loses just 5 seconds to Scarponi.

Uran was 1:20 behind Evans. Evans will lose significant time to Uran I think here.

 

[Ash]

Nibali has Evans in sight with just 1km. So close to catching him - but looks like he will fall just short.

Shocking time from Evans, as he struggles to the end. Evans loses an incredible 1:10 to Uran, keeping in second by a narrow 10 seconds.

I reckon Evans may fall off the podium in the final few days, if that ride was any indication.

Meanwhile, Nibali takes victory by an amazing 58 seconds over Samu Sanchez.

The battle for the GC for this Giro is over, with Nibali a comfortable winner. Nibali now leading Evans by 4:05, with Uran a further 10 seconds back, followed by Scarponi another 1:10 or so back.

 

[Oz-pat]

I'm sure the Aussie bandwaggoners will drop off this thread quicker than they did during the 2012 TdF

 

[cyclopath]

Not as fast as you, goose. See ya!

 

[Ash]

Evans is 36 years old; I think that your ability to recover gets lower as you get older, meaning bad days are much more likely. Evans' (and Contador's and many other top GC riders) often say that their key strength is their recovery.

I think that Evans is definitely on the down side ability wise, but hope that he can hold in there for 2nd in the Giro and a decent finish in the Tour de France.

The good news is that Evans is still holding second, even if it is by a slim margin. As long as Evans can at least mark Scarponi then he will stay on the podium, which is a great result, all things considering.

I'll post the profiles of the next stages once they are confirmed.....

 

[Ash]

Here's the likely final for tonight:

Although not an overly steep climb, that's a nice, long drag - 22.3 km of fun with changing gradients.