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Ukraine

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Hugh Jarse

Rocky Elsom (76)
Staff member
Didn't Ukraine "inherit" a large portion of the former Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal?

If so, how desperate are they, how far with Putin push them, is the interim government stable and rational?

Is Putin (and his hawks) stable and rational for that matter?
 

JSRF10

Dick Tooth (41)
Didn't Ukraine "inherit" a large portion of the former Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal?

If so, how desperate are they, how far with Putin push them, is the interim government stable and rational?

Is Putin (and his hawks) stable and rational for that matter?

I would be surprised if anything the Ukraine got off the USSR still works!

IMO the potential conflict is fuelled by Russia being wary of Ukraine joining NATO and their Black Sea bases having the ol Stars and Stripes hoisted up when the Russian lease ends (2040 I think). If Putin can agree some deal where his bases aren't included in any Ukraine/NATO deals and Crimea can become autonomous he'll pull his forces out.
 

BPC

Phil Hardcastle (33)
Didn't Ukraine "inherit" a large portion of the former Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal?

If so, how desperate are they, how far with Putin push them, is the interim government stable and rational?

Is Putin (and his hawks) stable and rational for that matter?

I think that the Ukrainian missile arsenal was removed after 94.

Interestingly, Merkel has alleged told Obama that, having spoken to Putin, she is worried that his mind doesn't occupy the same reality as the rest of us.
 

ChargerWA

Mark Loane (55)
Talk about a potential cluster fuck.

The scariest thing is that the United Russia party is the most ideologically sound party in Russia and they currently hold government by a wide margin. Individual Political association in Russia has largely been based on leader popularity until now, but there is a real swing under way as younger generations identify with the party that best represents their interests.

But nationalism is still a strong force in Russia and the main opposition party are vocally supportive of a united Slavic nation.

I doubt Putin will invade anywhere except Crimea, but if he does would the international community have political will to go to war over it? Unfortunately I would say yes.
 

boyo

Mark Ella (57)
Interestingly, Merkel has alleged told Obama that, having spoken to Putin, she is worried that his mind doesn't occupy the same reality as the rest of us.


Putin is considered a moderate FFS.
 

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Crimea for the Crimeans

Russia and the US – out of Ukraine!

byJustin Raimondo, March 03, 2014

Americans do not learn from history because they don’t know history, either their ownor anybody else’s. That’s why they are so ready to swallow the narrative now being sold to them about what, exactly, is occurring in Ukraine.

According to the Official Version, the Brave People of Ukraine are holding off the voracious Russian Bear in the person of Stalin Vladimir Putin, who wants nothing more than to corral the long-suffering Ukrainians back into a post-cold war equivalent of the Warsaw Pact – the somewhat sinister-sounding "Eurasian Union." The "pretext" – a Russian majority population in Crimea, which wants out of Ukraine. What should be the US position in this latest overseas crisis?

The near universal view, certainly among the political class both left and right, is summed up by Sen. John McCain’s all-too-predictable war cry: "We’re all Ukranians now!" The problem is that we’re not all Ukrainians now, and especially not the key players in this unfolding drama: the Crimeans.

While Western headline-writers are telling us Russian troops are moving into Ukraine, in reality they are moving into Crimea – which is not the same thing. While Crimea is officially an autonomous region formally within Ukraine, it has its own Parliamentand, up until 1995, its own President. The majority of Crimeans are Russian-speakers, and they have voted repeatedly for close relations with Russia.

.........
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2014/03/02/crimea-for-the-crimeans/
 

No4918

John Hipwell (52)
Talk about a potential cluster fuck.

The scariest thing is that the United Russia party is the most ideologically sound party in Russia and they currently hold government by a wide margin. Individual Political association in Russia has largely been based on leader popularity until now, but there is a real swing under way as younger generations identify with the party that best represents their interests.

But nationalism is still a strong force in Russia and the main opposition party are vocally supportive of a united Slavic nation.

I doubt Putin will invade anywhere except Crimea, but if he does would the international community have political will to go to war over it? Unfortunately I would say yes.

Clusterfuck indeed.

Intervention is going to get very messy. They have two options; either let Russia take control of part of another country or start a war with one crazy mofo with China supporting him. The first would be a dangerous precedent to set, the second is just too crazy to contemplate. It is one thing to go into Iraq and Afghanistan and flex your muscles, against a country with a real army though?

Diplomatic action is likely going to be the only way out. How would most Russian citizens feel about being isolated from the west? Putin will end up with a revolt of his own.
 

Runner

Nev Cottrell (35)
The people who are worried will be Poland , Hungary etc as they still have some Russian minorities. Sounds like Adolf and Austria and China and Tibet.
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
The people who are worried will be Poland , Hungary etc as they still have some Russian minorities. Sounds like Adolf and Austria and China and Tibet.

If the people in Poland and Hungary have something to worry about then the entire world should be worried about WWIII.
 

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
The people who are worried will be Poland , Hungary etc as they still have some Russian minorities. Sounds like Adolf and Austria and China and Tibet.


It's the Ukraine that's currently overrun with Nazis.........
 

JSRF10

Dick Tooth (41)
The people who are worried will be Poland , Hungary etc as they still have some Russian minorities. Sounds like Adolf and Austria and China and Tibet.

They don't have a strategic naval base on the Black Sea which is what this is really about. If Russia can guarantee this bases future beyond its current lease they'll happily withdraw their troops from Crimea.
 

ChargerWA

Mark Loane (55)
They don't have a strategic naval base on the Black Sea which is what this is really about. If Russia can guarantee this bases future beyond its current lease they'll happily withdraw their troops from Crimea.

Which would be the best outcome for us. Russia just gave the Ukraine $15B so I'm pretty sure they can offer him a long term lease extension and consider it repayment. They will then be able to forge on ahead with membership to the EU.

The rest of the world now needs to work quickly to tie up the other former soviet nations to the EU and destroy the hopes of the Russian movement who's goal is to see a reunited Soviet block.
 

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
The rest of the world now needs to work quickly to tie up the other former soviet nations to the EU and destroy the hopes of the Russian movement who's goal is to see a reunited Soviet block.


The last thing the world needs is more western puppet states.........
 

USARugger

John Thornett (49)
US sent a handful of F-15s over to Poland to begin helping Lithuania, etc patrol their air space. Turkey has also given permission for an unidentified-as-of-yet American warship to enter the Black Sea (not USS GHWB - it displaces too much water).

Funny enough Russia may have legal ground to be occupying Crimea right now based on an agreement they signed with the Ukraine in 1997. Crimea also has a pretty huge ethnic Russian population and wasn't really all that supportive of the protests or joining the EU to begin with.

Crimea is also already an autonomous parliamentary republic functioning within the borders of Ukraine anyway. They identify as Russians, not Ukrainians.

Like JSRF said though, this is just a lot of posturing by Russia to get their hands on Sevastopol. It would be outrageously expensive/potentially impossible for them to build a similar warm, deep-water port. There's also implications here for Russia's fossil fuel industry.

But, will Ukraine fight to keep Sevastopol for $$$ or just let Crimea effectively cede to Russia and solve the conflict and make all parties (relatively) happy?
 

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Russia is not the enemy........

Let's not pretend we're "saving" these countries..........
 
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