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The Climate Change Thread

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boyo

Mark Ella (57)
Facts: not in the Coalition playbook (especially if they are inconvenient)

Fiction: is in the Coalition playbook

Bureau warned Greg Hunt about climate change before he cited Wikipedia

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bureau-warned-greg-hunt-about-climate-change-before-he-cited-wikipedia-20141006-10qyg0.html#ixzz3FPymCM49


From the comments:-

Welcome to the only backwater on earth where this topic is still a "debate". So much for the clever country... I wonder how much longer our luck will last?
 

formerflanker

Ken Catchpole (46)
Facts: not in the Coalition playbook (especially if they are inconvenient)

Fiction: is in the Coalition playbook

Bureau warned Greg Hunt about climate change before he cited Wikipedia

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bureau-warned-greg-hunt-about-climate-change-before-he-cited-wikipedia-20141006-10qyg0.html#ixzz3FPymCM49

From the comments:-

Welcome to the only backwater on earth where this topic is still a "debate". So much for the clever country. I wonder how much longer our luck will last?

Anyone who uses Wikipedia as an authoritative source is not credible themselves.
However a reliable source has said "The Earth’s temperature has “plateaued” and there has been no global warming for at least the last 18 years, says Dr. John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at the University of Alabama/Huntsville."
Most of the Australian Schoolboys have never experienced Global warming.
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article...atellite-data-no-global-warming-past-18-years
 

boyo

Mark Ella (57)
The slowing of the increase in surface temperatures has been found to have been caused by the oceans capturing most of the temperature increases.

This wasn't previously understood because the necessary volume of measuring devices didn't exist.

Increased study and measurement of these things has led to an improved understanding of what is happening. That is essentially what scientific research is all about. Trying to better understand and explain what is happening through observation.

On the other hand, the denialists will pick one isolated piece of data (such that the US hasn't been warming) and then use that as evidence that climate change is not being caused by humans. There is no scientific method here. It is purely trying to pick one piece of data and use that as evidence to refute scientific research relating to the entire climate system. That is why every single denialist argument is easily refuted by the rest of the scientific community.


This emphasises Braveheart81's point:-

Southern Hemisphere ocean warming 'underestimated'

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2014/10/06/4100264.htm
 

formerflanker

Ken Catchpole (46)
And just to prove how unsettled is the science, your reference goes on to show that NASA have just found that the cold waters of earth's deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005. The temperature of the top half of the world’s ocean — above the 1.24-mile mark — is still climbing, but not fast enough to account for the stalled air temperatures.
Source: NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology.
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4321


A concern I have about the first study mentioned is its strong reliance on climate models - the same ones I assume that were wrong in not predicting the pause in global warming.

Until the climate scientists get their field of study into a mature state of analysis, we shouldn't be committing trillions of dollars world-wide into schemes which attempt to mitigate theoretical, as opposed to actual, harm.
 

sarcophilus

Charlie Fox (21)
and we should not make commercial airlines or Ocean going vessels carry life rafts until we are sure they are going to sink
 

sarcophilus

Charlie Fox (21)
How much will it cost to buy our way out of trouble if the plateau is just another similar to those at the beginning of last century

or if as the missing heat not found where it was expected article pointed out that the sun is heading for a "grand Minimum" that may replicate the "little ice age" of the 18th century

this too will only buy some time as per previous discussions.

I still note that the no change scientist still talks about the isolated affect of the SOI as if it is global. He also note he looks out the back window.

I hope the next Taxi I catch doesn't keep telling me "see we went through another red light and nothing happened, breaking costs time and money and wears out tyres, lets go a little faster"
 

boyo

Mark Ella (57)
Didn't the COALition (aka the organisation for mining, the military, and the Murdoch-media) say that Australia is open for business?

"Australian businesses want the Abbott government to set tougher emissions reduction targets and fear the country's economy will suffer if it does not move away from fossil-fuel intensive industries, a new analysis shows."

"More than 70 per cent of businesses thought Australia's economy would be disadvantaged if the government did not set targets in line with other countries and did not price carbon in line with major countries.

"Business is telling us you can't ignore what the rest of the world is doing and think we'll get away with it," Dr Jotzo said."


Businesses want tougher climate action, low carbon economy: survey

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/businesses-want-tougher-climate-action-low-carbon-economy-survey-20141010-114eq1.html#ixzz3FnP71FCr

 

wilful

Larry Dwyer (12)
Models are based on assumptions. If you change the assumptions it could be the world is cooling
This is such a bollocks argument. The reductio ad absurdum of your argument is that you cannot model anything and strict experimental evidence is the only standard for science. Really? Is that what you really believe?

(Though I have to say, it's a truism that all models are wrong, it's just that some models are less wrong than others)

In the first place, we do have the temperature records anyway, as well as all the other biological and geological evidence that climate change is occurring. But sticking with the 'flawed' models, what alternative can you offer?

You can back-cast the models, without having to "fit" them, just using the data and the calculations, and in fact they fit very well with observations. That works even in the 1800s. So obviously something is going right. Risby et al. (2014) checked model accuracy just this year, and found them to have excellent predictive power.

Keep coming up with zombie ideas, we've heard them all before, they've all been thoroughly investigated and refuted in the scientific literature.
 

wilful

Larry Dwyer (12)
Oh and happy news about 2013 in Australia. A special report of the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society was just published.
  • January 7 was our hottest day on record – 40.3°C.
  • January was the hottest month on record.
  • The 2012-13 summer was the hottest on record.
  • September was the hottest on record, exceeding the previous record by more than a degree; this was the largest temperature anomaly for any month yet recorded.
  • September-November was the hottest on record.
  • The whole year of 2013 was the hottest on record.
Human fingerprints are all over these records.
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
Well we just had the hottest September on record globally but keep banging on about problems with climate models and leftist conspiracy theories.
 

formerflanker

Ken Catchpole (46)
Well we just had the hottest September on record globally but keep banging on about problems with climate models and leftist conspiracy theories.

But why did we get those figures? Logical arguments can include:
  • adjustments to raw data by the data suppliers, and as with all adjustments the temperatures rose;
  • a naturally occurring and persistent blocking high caused an unusual warming of the North Pacific
  • the effect of the sun.
The climate models predicted rising global temperatures and we didn't get them, despite rising CO2 emissions. That's no leftist conspiracy theory. That's a reason to be skeptical.
 

sarcophilus

Charlie Fox (21)
"If we are wrong in so speaking, let anyone of our University friends step

down for a moment from his high pedestal of learning, and let him give us

one proof in support of the popular view that we are living on a whirling

globe flying through something called “ space ” at the fearful rate of about

eleven hundred miles in an hour, or nineteen miles a second 1 Or to simplify

matters, we will waive the question of the shape of the earth, if any

of our savants, with all his boasted University education, can give us one

decent proof that the earth has any motion at all. We only ask for one,

if it be a good one. Who will give it ? Our “ space ” shall be at his

disposal; at least a fair share of it. Now, ‘‘ Scientists’’ to the rescue;

and if you can give us only one proof of the Earth’s supposed motion, we

will yield your right, and advocate your claim, to the modest sum of

j^3o,ooo to ;^4o,ooo which you are asking in support of your University

Extension Scheme. But if you cannot give us the proof asked for in support

of one of your favourite “ Sciences,” and one, too, which is positively

asserted to be an “ exact ” Science, then you must excuse us saying that

we think you are unworthy of the support demanded ; and that, moreover,

your boasted system of education is unsound, unscientific, and misleading,

and must sooner or later give way to the true Zetetic mode of teaching

advocated by us."
this society still exists waiting for definitive proof they are
 

Mr Doug

Dick Tooth (41)
I vowed that I would 'stay away from' this thread, however, I have an emergency at home and need the help of like-minded souls such as Runner, Scotty, etc. Do any of you know of a good electronics tech. on the southern Gold Coast?

When I tuned in to the SE Queensland weather report on ABC 612 on my bedside radio this morning, "Rick, the BOM guy" said that it was "a chilly morning in SEQ, with light frosts on the Granite Belt, which is unusual at this time of year". My radio is obviously buggered, with such poor reception, and can be binned and replaced, but more concerning is the fact that last night, my Toshiba laptop started showing impossible images on the Sydney (Terry Hills) BOM radar site. It was all different colours, which one could assume may have been heavy rain, but given that Prof. Dim Fluffery has said on numerous occasions, that good rains around Sydney would be 'just a memory', and Warragamba Dam would dry-up, it means my bloody laptop has a "credibility problem" by failing to transmit data from the hard drive to the screen! More bloody expenditure, damn it!

(The shitty weather is too much for Jarrod Hayne, who's off to the USA to play NFL)!!

But wait, there's more. This morning our (not very old) wide-screen TV set has packed it in! When watching ABC News 24, the reception was crap. They were showing scenes of the beautiful Blue Mountains, but all I could see was "snow", shit, we only had our aerial and co-axial cables replaced last month for $600-00. Somebody, please, I need help!! I'm worried that my heart pacemaker might fail, which will mean this will be my "last post"!
 

wilful

Larry Dwyer (12)
I keep coming back to this issue like a dog to his sick.

We can constantly post new evidence from around the globe, not only temperature records that are being smashed upwards all the time, but all the other things like changes in flowering times, antarctic sea ice, sea level rises, glacier retreat, the list goes on. Countless streams of evidence across a broad range of fields, all pointing in the same direction, all thoroughly scrutinised by experts.

And against that we get a few mealy complaints about second order issues, never novel, never insightful, always refutable.Never any novel science, never any reasonable counter explanation for what's going on (sunspots? Puhleez).

I don't think the light will ever shine in, I don't think denialists can ever be honest with themselves, they've painted themselves into a corner so many times that their identity and their ego are too wrapped up in the issue to see the plain unvarnished truth of what they're refusing to see.

So I've said this heaps of times already, and this time I'll try to make it stick. I won't comment on this climate change thread again, I think I'll stick to the rugby (oh god I don't want to think about the Wallabies)
 
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