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Shute Shield 2015

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Hugh Jarse

Rocky Elsom (76)
Staff member
^^^ Ignoring those in the "Wallabies 50 squad", The Corporation can still wheel out Waratah Tolu Latu at hooker to replace the US Eagles hooker Tom Coolican.

Southern Districts - Currently 56 points. Penrith (H), West Harbour (A) - Should win 2/2 and take 2 4T BP to finish on 66 points

Warringah - Currently 56 points. Sydney University (H), Eastwood (H) - Could lose 2/2 and take 1 4T BP with 1 <7 point loss BP to finish on 58

Sydney University - Currently 48 points. Warringah (A), Northern Suburbs (H) - Should win 1/2 and take 2 4T BP to finish on 54 points. They may win both with 4T BPs which would see them on

Hobbits and Rats are currently on 56 points. The Corporation can not make the predicted 66 points to knock the Hobbits out of 3rd place, but could end up in 4th place on 58 if they take 5 points from this weekends game against the Rats, and stop them from taking any BPs.

I reckon they will face either Manly or Souths in week 1 of Finals. A tough gig, but not insurmountable especially given MMM's recent form and their previous wobbly finals campaigns.
 

Johnno40

Allen Oxlade (6)
Here come Uni again bugga,
Have to agree with HJ regarding the Marlins wobbly when it counts,One of the best all season has gone OS, number 10 they have to hide when its time to defened , and the worst front row in the top six.
Eastwood back to back
 

I like to watch

David Codey (61)
I base it on the fact that the ball runner usually maintains their line & speed after contact with him.
They don't put him at hooker in defensive lineouts because he is a strong tackler.
They don't hide him on the wing in D,because of his brilliant counter either.
 

the coach

Bob Davidson (42)
3 way battle for the final top 6 spot between Wicks, Pirates and Norths IMO.

I'm assuming Uni will at least beat Norths in the last round even if the Rats beat them this weekend so they will finish on at least 52 points.

Unlikely Wicks will add to their current points total of 48.

Norths will probably miss out as they play Uni in the last round and would need to win both games. Finishing level with Wicks (by beating Easts with a bonus point and picking up 1 bonus point agaist Uni) is no good as they have only won 7 games to Wicks 9. Likely finish with 46 or 47 points.

The Pirates could catch the Wicks with 2 bonus point wins against MTB and Southern, but unlikely they will beat Southern so probably finish on 43 or 44 points.

So it's possible the Wicks will sneak into 6th spot without picking up any points in the last 3 games.
 

Hugh Jarse

Rocky Elsom (76)
Staff member
Finals Watch Update:
<snip>

Warringah - Currently 56 points. Sydney University (H), Eastwood (H) - Could lose 2/2 and take 1 4T BP with 1 <7 point loss BP to finish on 58
Randwick - Currently 48 points. Eastwood (H), Manly (H) - Could lose both and take 1 x 4T BP with 1 x <7 point loss BP to finish on 50 points
Sydney University - Currently 48 points. Warringah (A), Northern Suburbs (H) - Should win 1/2 and take 2 4T BP to finish on 54 points
Northern Suburbs - Currently 42 points. Eastern Suburbs (H), Sydney University (A) - Should win 1/2 and take 2 4T BP to finish on 48 points.

Manly and Eastwood seem to have the top two slots booked, with Southern Districts highly likely to take the 3rd position. It's anyones guess what the order of the next three will be.

50+ points seems to be the cut off for the top six. To get there or close, these folk need to win 2/2 with 4T BPs in each game.
West Harbour on 38 points are probably out of the running for a top 6 finish given that they face: Parramatta (A), Southern Districts (H).
Gordon on 37 points are probably out of the running for a top 6 finish given that they face: Manly (H), Penrith (A).


The Jarseometer prediction for Finals week 1 is now:
Eastwood vs Randwick, Manly vs Sydney University, Southern Districts vs Warringah.

I reckon the wicks will end up in 6th place on 49 or 50 points.
1,2,3 will go to Woodies, MMM,and Hobbits.
Rats will probably get 4th with The Corporation in 5th.

Shoremen, Pirates, and the others have probably missed the boat.
 

Marlin Boy

Bob McCowan (2)
I base it on the fact that the ball runner usually maintains their line & speed after contact with him.
They don't put him at hooker in defensive lineouts because he is a strong tackler.
They don't hide him on the wing in D,because of his brilliant counter either.
I've watched every Manly game this year and despite my bias I disagree. Sam is an excellent slide defender and front on. He's been carrying a significant knee injury all year and I think this is the basis of his positional play at lineout and defensive situations.
 

Tah and feathered

Watty Friend (18)
I heard some info that will have this forum lighting up
In 2016 there is going to be a 200k salary cap on all clubs to run there rugby season.
This cap covers grade and colts and includes things such as match payments, cars, petrol money,accomodation, sign on fees etc etc plus the big one Scholarships and costs associated with Scholarships.
I have not heard how its going to be managed etc etc.
thinking about this i would imagine if put too the clubs 10 clubs would vote for the salary cap and 2 against
If uni and Randwick had say 20 full scolarships each at 5k thats half there money gone.
Not included in the salary cap is coaches payments and S&C costs.
 

Dave Beat

Paul McLean (56)
I heard some info that will have this forum lighting up
In 2016 there is going to be a 200k salary cap on all clubs to run there rugby season.
This cap covers grade and colts and includes things such as match payments, cars, petrol money,accomodation, sign on fees etc etc plus the big one Scholarships and costs associated with Scholarships.
I have not heard how its going to be managed etc etc.
thinking about this i would imagine if put too the clubs 10 clubs would vote for the salary cap and 2 against
If uni and Randwick had say 20 full scolarships each at 5k thats half there money gone.
Not included in the salary cap is coaches payments and S&C costs.


Will be interesting, the turn over between clubs (sponsorship / gate / catering) is substantially different, then there maybe the contra uni deals etc that maybe hard to police. Then how do they measure the Izzy Scholarship type one. Will be interesting trying to police and the associated costs on a comp which is closer to amateur, than professional.
Then given most players need to work, and some jobs come from club involvement - thus another aspect which is very blury.
 

Brian Westlake

Arch Winning (36)
I base it on the fact that the ball runner usually maintains their line & speed after contact with him.
They don't put him at hooker in defensive lineouts because he is a strong tackler.
They don't hide him on the wing in D,because of his brilliant counter either.
Listen up boys and girls.... This is the sledge of the year!!!
If you want to learn, learn from a master. I doff my hat @ILTW.
:)
 

Hugh Jarse

Rocky Elsom (76)
Staff member
$200K Player payments cap? Good luck with that.

Like pure communism, it is a bloody good idea, but IMHO the practical application of it will not work. It will lead to more and more creative ways of attracting and retaining talent, and will require yet another administrative effort and staff to manage and police.

The NRL and AFL have full time forensic accounting staff and investigators in their Integrity Units and they can't keep up with what their member clubs are doing. How clever are the unpaid interns at SRU? I can really see them making a difference.
My gut feel is that the intended targets (Uni, and Wicks) will manage to stay within guidelines quite easily, and the clubs hit most will be the ones that can least afford to reduce their player payments. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
 

the coach

Bob Davidson (42)
Does anyone really believe that a spending cap will level the playing field as I assume is the intention? Will kids leaving school decide to join Penrith or Parramatta instead of Uni or Randwick as a result? Most likely outcome IMO is players leaving rugby and going to league where they can still earn some money. And, as has been mentioned above, how on earth would it be policed? For those with longer memories, how many clubs / players were sanctioned for earning money from the game when it was amateur? In my memory, the only players who were impacted were those trying to return from a stint in league. Sounds like the wise heads at NSWRU have been raiding the cellar again.
 
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