COVID-19 Stuff Here

[Up the Guts]

Deaths at the same number of cases is a good stat to watch, Aus and NZ both a lot lower than Europe. Could indicate less undocumented spread or that the virus strain is not as strong or possibly even both.

 

[Up the Guts]

You guys seemed to enjoy the graph I posted yesterday, so I'll upload today's. All credit to Dr. Scott Wordley (a former lecturer of mine) and his team at Monash.

This is great stuff, very insightful getting stats/eng/econometrician analysis on the growth numbers like this.

 

[cyclopath]

Deaths at the same number of cases is a good stat to watch, Aus and NZ both a lot lower than Europe. Could indicate less undocumented spread or that the virus strain is not as strong or possibly even both.

I think more the former.
Worldwide death rate is around 4.5%. Skewed up by Italy, Spain and to an extent China and now USA.
Aus around 0.4%.
Certainly, overwhelming the acute care capacity will bump that a lot, and has in Italy and Spain. But I think our testing regimen is probably giving more accurate numbers, although there are obviously a lot of factors besides those I mentioned.

 

[tragic]

Deaths at the same number of cases is a good stat to watch, Aus and NZ both a lot lower than Europe. Could indicate less undocumented spread or that the virus strain is not as strong or possibly even both.

I don't think theres much difference in the virus itself - it's apparently not mutating yet. No selection pressures as its a pretty effective pathogen in its current state
It's probably that our denominator is more accurate whereas the denominator in Italy is wrong with rampant undetected community spread.
There is also talk also that there may be some sort of predisposition in the latin genetics but it's all speculation.
Our mortality will catch up a bit as the median time to admission was 7-8 days and death 17 days so some of the early infections are yet to succumb. Even more so if out health services are overwhelmed.

 

[Up the Guts]

Yep, agree that the testing is likely the difference, that has been my hypothesis since the start.

Time will tell if we catch up on the mortality rate.

Something else now being raised in regards to mortality rates is that upper respiratory illnesses are usually not specifically defined as cause of death unless they are identified as a 'rare and notifiable disease' ( this is the terminology used in the UK).For instance, if a cancer striken patient eventually succumbs to a respiratory illness like the flu the ultimate cause of death will not be listed as the flu but cancer. However, if any patient dies after having tested positive for COVID-19 it will be recorded on the death certificate, this potentially gives it the appearance it is causing an increasing number of deaths, whether it is true or not. That is, if a patient with underlying conditions dies with the coronavirus then it will be recorded as if the death was from the coronavirus even though this may not be true.

 

[tragic]

Yep, agree that the testing is likely the difference, that has been my hypothesis since the start.

Time will tell if we catch up on the mortality rate.

Something else now being raised in regards to mortality rates is that upper respiratory illnesses are usually not specifically defined as cause of death unless they are identified as a 'rare and notifiable disease' ( this is the terminology used in the UK).For instance, if a cancer striken patient eventually succumbs to a respiratory illness like the flu the ultimate cause of death will not be listed as the flu but cancer. However, if any patient dies after having tested positive for COVID-19 it will be recorded on the death certificate, this potentially gives it the appearance it is causing an increasing number of deaths, whether it is true or not. That is, if a patient with underlying conditions dies with the coronavirus then it will be recorded as if the death was from the coronavirus even though this may not be true.

When you fill out a death certificate you document the primary cause of death. There are then several lines where you can list contributing morbidities.
So if you died of a heart attack whilst being COVID +ve cause of death would be myocardial infarction with COVID as a concurrent morbidity (and cancer as well if you had it too)
But if you died of respiratory failure from COVID then it would be listed as the primary cause of death with coronary artery disease and cancer as comorbidities)
So it should be fairly clear

 

[boyo]

Which is why nobody was suggesting it.

The fact is the Libs - being "superior economic managers" - refused to take pragmatic financial measures to keep a society on an upward trajectory. Rising debt, no real wage growth, denial of increases to Newstart, and a raft of tax cuts (mostly for people who didn't need them) put on the table as some kind of salve.

They've done nothing to arrest the upward motion of net debt against GDP that Labor left them after the GFC, and chained themselves to the anchor of a future surplus which in real terms - at $7B - meant very little when the previous treasury under Joe Hockey declared a Budget Emergency but the red arrows kept heading north.

Interest rates at all time lows. National consumer debt at all time highs (housing going mental) and very few levers left to pull for the RBA and others.

The most probable outcome was a recession under ScoMo at some point, or at best a break in the 29-year growth. Whether it could have been rescued by stimulus is up for debate BUT if it was stimulus in the form of infrastructure building, well we could use some in the energy sector. Heap of easy yards to be made politically in decarbonisation via wind farms and transmission upgrades.

Yes, and a government (which is a currency-issuer) can afford to buy whatever is for sale in its own currency.

 

[boyo]

It's all very well talking about prioritising the health outcomes over the economic, particularly if you are in a job/profession unlikely to be dramatically impacted.
What I can tell you out here in the real world of small business, is that there would be lucky to be one in 20 small businesses that could sustain any more than three months without an income. The decisions that people like me make (in my business once we return to 'normal' conditions it will be three more months without any income) are about putting off people with children and a mortgage. This is a human cost, which, if done on a large scale, manifests itself in depression, substance abuse, domestic violence and at the worst end, suicide. As I've said before, the long term effects could dwarf anything the pandemic does to us.

In order to avoid that the federal government needs to subsidise all wage and business costs for the time being.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

If you could just get everyone to comply, that would be great. I'm booked to see COBRAs v Waihou on June 6th!

Yesterday ~200 peeps went swimming or surfing at Brighton beach near CheeChee, several hundred did the same at various other locations incl Raglan (30km from my place) & New Plymouth. Something like 300 were in Auckland's main park at one point doing things like touch rugby, frisbee & cricket. I promise to try harder today......

 

[boyo]

"In the meantime, faced with a PR disaster, the government is now presented with the challenge of wringing efficiency and helpfulness out of a system designed to provide neither."

The Australian welfare system has always been needlessly cruel. Now it’s punishing half the country


https://www.theguardian.com/comment...u_email&utm_campaign=BestOfGuardianOpinionAUS

 

[Ignoto]

With Parliament being stood down for 6 months, why are we paying their salaries? They should join the rest of the country being forced out of work and tell them to claim any help from Centrelink.

 

[Derpus]

With Parliament being stood down for 6 months, why are we paying their salaries? They should join the rest of the country being forced out of work and tell them to claim any help from Centrelink.

Yeah this infuriates me. Work from home like the rest of us.

That said - working or not i seriously doubt any State or Federal government will be sacking or pausing employee payments any time soon.

 

[Up the Guts]

With Parliament being stood down for 6 months, why are we paying their salaries? They should join the rest of the country being forced out of work and tell them to claim any help from Centrelink.

The problem with that logic is that it assumes they do work when Parliament is in session.

 

[Pfitzy]

Yesterday ~200 peeps went swimming or surfing at Brighton beach near CheeChee, several hundred did the same at various other locations incl Raglan (30km from my place) & New Plymouth. Something like 300 were in Auckland's main park at one point doing things like touch rugby, frisbee & cricket. I promise to try harder today..

Having been out today to grab a couple of things, I'm of the opinion we're fucking doomed. Ducked into Bunnings to grab a replacement door lock for a house I'm fixing up for a relative (looters) and stupid fucking idiots all walking right next to me despite all the signage Bunnings had in place.

Supermarket not much better.

 

[kiap]

They now believe patient zero contracted the virus on Dec. 10. Still, well above the graph. Pretty sure it was inaccurate even when published.

30.8k deaths for last ~110 days -> average 280 deaths per day

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

30.8k deaths for last ~110 days -> average 280 deaths per day

Though I suspect that is was wrong when published. It does certainly look to be accelerating in the number of deaths. Will be interesting to see where it sits in a week.

 

[Derpus]

Having been out today to grab a couple of things, I'm of the opinion we're fucking doomed. Ducked into Bunnings to grab a replacement door lock for a house I'm fixing up for a relative (looters) and stupid fucking idiots all walking right next to me despite all the signage Bunnings had in place.

Supermarket not much better.

Was waiting the appropriate 1.5m behind a lady, waiting to pick up some garlic, watching as she fondled about 20 bunches of garlic. What the fuck was she looking for? Garlic all looks the fucking same on the outside!absolute fucking moron.

 

[Lindommer]

Typical female retail behaviour, they're very tactile while shopping. Have to run their fingers/hands over every item in their path of vision even if they have no intention of buying it. My wife does it, constantly, which has made me observe other women out shopping. Weird.

 

[Up the Guts]

Yes, and a government (which is a currency-issuer) can afford to buy whatever is for sale in its own currency.

Sure it can, if you like inflation.

Wait a month for even more businesses to shutdown and people out of work to get the stimulus money in their pocket, then we’ll see inflation rocket up and shit really hit the fan.

 

[Garry Owens]

Was waiting the appropriate 1.5m behind a lady, waiting to pick up some garlic, watching as she fondled about 20 bunches of garlic What the fuck was she looking for? Garlic all looks the fucking same on the outside!absolute fucking moron.

Should have tied a bunch around your balls