COVID-19 Stuff Here

[WorkingClassRugger]

Curently sitting at 136 cases for today with NT and Tas still to report. So as it stands we have our first sub 3% day. Currenlty at 2.45%.

 

[cyclopath]

Walking around Coogee after my run this arvo, disappointing to see multiple groups of backpackers ranging up to 10 at a time lolly-gagging around; they kind of stood out as most people seemed to be following the rules pretty well. I'd have no problem with some of them being told "Holiday's over, go home".

 

[Up the Guts]

I didn’t realise backpackers were allowed in Coogee in peace times let alone now.

 

[cyclopath]

I didn’t realise backpackers were allowed in Coogee in peace times let alone now.

Ha ha. There are fewer than previously, and to be honest they usually are not an issue (used to be a nightmare in terms of alcohol related violence etc when there were big numbers). But the blatant disregard for the current rules is kind of shitty. And right now, I don't think they need to be given a lot of leeway.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Ha ha. There are fewer than previously, and to be honest they usually are not an issue (used to be a nightmare in terms of alcohol related violence etc when there were big numbers). But the blatant disregard for the current rules is kind of shitty. And right now, I don't think they need to be given a lot of leeway.

Especially when the rest of us are being asked to make sacrifices. One in all in.

 

[Pfitzy]

Curently sitting at 136 cases for today with NT and Tas still to report. So as it stands we have our first sub 3% day. Currenlty at 2.45%.

Finished at 2.47%

The March 1st start to March 10th start differential is now 0.11% so no point tracking both any more

We're out near 10-day case doubling BUT the Rugby Princess hovers off our shores with 200 sick crew members...

 

[Dctarget]

Day 24 Scoreboard for Sunday 5th April (6:00pm data):
5,688 total Australian confirmed cases.
136 new
+2% single day increase.
TODAY WE LOWERED THE CURVE (-2%)
+3% daily increase (rolling 3 day average).
Today we earned our very first Suppression Flag by reaching the 3 day average growth rate of 3%. If we can maintain our confirmed case growth at or below 3% for 3 out of 4 consecutive days, this will signal we have entered Phase 3: Suppression
However for the moment we are still in the Mitigation Phase. Since the start of this phase (on the 24th of March) we have averaged -1.6% daily rate of reduction of cases.

5 new deaths in the past 24 hours means the AU death toll has risen to 35.​

 

[Tex]

I know there's still a lot of water to run under the bridge but I'm feeling so #blessed to be in Australia right now.

Looking at the nightmare unfolding in the USA and continental Europe, and not even beginning to contemplate what will happen in South Asia and Africa, I feel that the sacrifices being made by the vast, vast majority of us are going to pay dividends.

 

[Froggy]

In response to Tragic, I think the last restriction you will see lifted will be overseas travel, which, the way the rest of the world is going, it's hard to see changing until we have a vaccine. It will be like it was in the 70's, when you had to have your smallpox vaccination to travel overseas, only now it will be COVID-19.
That means a long time before we see a full recovery in the tourism sector. Hopefully when things open up again we'll see an uplift in domestic tourism, particularly as overseas won't be an option.
It might be supreme optimism, but it gee it would be good to see pubs, cafes, gyms etc re-open by July. There's a heap of people in that industry won't survive much longer than that. I get what Scomo's talking about with hibernation, but there will be a point where hibernation turns into death for a lot of these small businesses, they won't come back. Not suggesting they will be back by then, just a hope!

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I think what we'll see is a last-in, first-out on the restrictions. That is, the most recent and toughest restrictions will be released first, like here in WA the intra-state and inter-state travel bans, assuming that things flatten right off. Then we might see outdoor gatherings loosen up a bit, then pubs/restaurants. I agree with Froggy that until the situation with other countries is sorted out that international travel is going to be locked down.

 

[cyclopath]

I think what we'll see is a last-in, first-out on the restrictions. That is, the most recent and toughest restrictions will be released first, like here in WA the intra-state and inter-state travel bans, assuming that things flatten right off. Then we might see outdoor gatherings loosen up a bit, then pubs/restaurants. I agree with Froggy that until the situation with other countries is sorted out that international travel is going to be locked down.

Look, do you guys want to secede, or not? Make up your minds!

 

[Garry Owens]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/20/world-order-after-coroanvirus-pandemic/

Great read that takes in the views from a range of Academics on what the world looks like socially , economically , and politically , on the “other side”

 

[Tex]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/20/world-order-after-coroanvirus-pandemic/

Great read that takes in the views from a range of Academics on what the world looks like socially , economically , and politically , on the “other side”

One thing's abundantly clear to me, and that's that the US emperor has no clothes. Their system of organising an economy and democracy was already wounded, perhaps fatally, but this will be the death-knell.

Some argue the first role of a government is to protect its people; their problem is that they've been constructing boogie-men to be protected from for decades while letting the social safety nets needed in times of actual crises erode and rust, often intentionally.

Time for Australia to forge a path according to our own priorities, not those set when Japan was riding roughshod over the Pacific and SE Asia.

 

[Garry Owens]

The US Emperor may have no clothes.

But he sure as shit got a big ass Military and a broken mass that wouldn't take much to be easily manipulated and galvanized.

Part of me thinks this could be the last card they have.

 

[Tex]

The US Emperor may have no clothes.

But he sure as shit got a big ass Military and a broken mass that wouldn't take much to be easily manipulated and galvanized.

Part of me thinks this could be the last card they have.

Scary combination.

 

[Up the Guts]

Wall Street will still be the centre of the financial world when this is over. The greenback is still the predominant safehaven currency. As long as this is the case the US will still hold its position in the world order.

If anything, the fact that shit is hitting the fan now in the US means it will be out of lockdown before anyone else and its economic power will likely increase.

 

[Braveheart81]

If anything, the fact that shit is hitting the fan now in the US means it will be out of lockdown before anyone else and its economic power will likely increase.

I'm not really sure it's going to work like that. It will still have only gone through a fraction of their population. Certainly way less than would provide any level of herd immunity.

Getting new case numbers down to close to zero seems like a faster way back towards normal than letting it run rampant through the population.

Australia's goal (and we're so far tracking in the right direction) is to get new daily cases down as close to zero as possible. As there is less need to test potential cases testing should shift to a more randomised nature (which the ACT has started today) to see the extent of unknown cases in the community.

Hopefully we get to the point where we can re-open domestic travel routes and then travel to and from New Zealand as they will most likely be in a better place than us in terms of low case numbers sooner.

Ultimately bringing in antibody testing to help work out how much of the community had the virus with no symptoms and should now be immune will also play a big role.

 

[Up the Guts]

I'm not really sure it's going to work like that. It will still have only gone through a fraction of their population. Certainly way less than would provide any level of herd immunity.

Getting new case numbers down to close to zero seems like a faster way back towards normal than letting it run rampant through the population.

Australia's goal (and we're so far tracking in the right direction) is to get new daily cases down as close to zero as possible. As there is less need to test potential cases testing should shift to a more randomised nature (which the ACT has started today) to see the extent of unknown cases in the community.

Hopefully we get to the point where we can re-open domestic travel routes and then travel to and from New Zealand as they will most likely be in a better place than us in terms of low case numbers sooner.

Ultimately bringing in antibody testing to help work out how much of the community had the virus with no symptoms and should now be immune will also play a big role.

We know from previous pandemics that performance in the first wave is negatively correlated with performance in the second wave. Obviously, it is much easier to track cases now so that relationship may not be as strong.

There is a chance Australia can beat the virus via lockdowns, given our apparent low community transmissions compared to North America and Europe, but it is unlikely we see total eradication. Countries with higher proportions of their population infected in their first wave are likely able to ease lockdown measures more quickly and ramp them up more slowly as more of the population is immune. Australia will have to be more stringent given a smaller fraction of the population have had the virus.

I am not trying to make a value judgment on optimal outcomes/policies just stating how I see the unravellings of lockdowns play out.

 

[Garry Owens]

On 60 minutes last night, Joe Hockey curiously referred to " 2 to 3 blocks" that would emerge on the other side of this - and sort of referred to the importance of (for Australia) not being forgotten about by the US.

Geo-politically speaking, Australia is an interesting spot.

 

[Dctarget]

Day 25 Scoreboard for Monday 6th April (4:00pm data):
5,795 total Australian confirmed cases.
107 new
+2% single day increase.


TODAY WE STAYED ON THE CURVE
+3% daily increase (rolling 3 day average).
Today we earned our second Suppression Flag by maintaining the 3 day average growth rate at or below 3%. If we can maintain our confirmed case growth at or below 3% for 3 out of 4 consecutive days, this will signal we have entered Phase 3: Suppression
However, for at least one more day, we are still in the Mitigation Phase. Since the start of this phase (on the 24th of March) we have now averaged -1.5% daily rate of reduction of cases.
5 new deaths in the past 24 hours means that the

AU death toll has now risen to 40.​

As of today Australia has:​

• Conducted 297,411 tests in total (+10,000 last day)​
• Tested 1,188 people per 100,000 of population (1.17%)​
• Returned 1.91% positive tests​

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