Where to for Super Rugby?

[KOB1987]

And reduction helps opportunities, broadcasters wanting content regularly at prime time spots (therefore money) and general visibility how?

Dropping to 3 teams would still mean some weeks where only 1 game is played on fri or sat night here in Aus. This is not the answer to attracting sponsorship and building habits for fans to be guaranteed to sit down and watch a game on a fri/sat night every week.

just to allay your concerns slightly, IF (and it's not my preference) we were to have only 3 teams, I think it would make too much sense to base the third team out of Melbourne, not Canberra.

I think we need to be realistic about the current environment. We need to keep our best players on our shores and it's possible that to achieve that we have to cut to 3 teams. We might have to shrink the pro level in order to grow the game. I'm not in favour of it in terms of being a supporter, just being realistic.

 

[dru]

NZ has central contracting so there's no salary cap per se: although there's a cap on how much an individual player can earn, there's no limit on how many top-$ players a side can have. The conventional wisdom is that NZ teams spend less on players than Australia does, even without allowing for the exchange rate: I think our total Super Rugby salary budget is around $20Mn. Even if skyTV can honour the $100Mn p.a. contract they signed last year, I don't see NZR being able to suddenly budget $32Mn for player payments but they could maybe stretch it to $24Mn at which point a sixth team becomes theoretically feasible $-wise but obviously begs the question of where to base it & what its catchment area looks like.

<snip>

Detailed and thought provoking as usual, WoB.

Unfortunately where it points is that an Aus pro rugby future with NZ is untenable. And NZ should seriously consider the ramifications of that. They can kick the can down the road, with a likely supportive RA, but ultimately it defaults in Australia to shrink to greatness. This might achieve a few more seasons for NZ but ultimately Aus fails and NZ achieves the same result, though with a strategy of slow speed train-wreck.

International connection has no reason to change. And perhaps a Champions Cup style TT conclusion to independent domestic comps can be arranged. Much more even playing field there if the Aus teams become rep teams, SOO or some format.

Back in Aus, plans for a broader domestic comp involving PI, or Japan, etc. These would likely be negotiated in competition with NZ - a competition we are hilariously unlikely to win. So should plan with NZ.

Increasingly, and disappointingly, I am resigned to the “slow speed train crash” strategy. In part because I have no reason think that RA are in sufficiently stupid to endorse it. And in part because NZRU are more likely to prove the decision maker.

There are no good solutions, but in Aus, if possible I would prefer a broader domestic comp, with short Super conclusion to the season. Thence internationals.

 

[dru]

just to allay your concerns slightly, IF (and it's not my preference) we were to have only 3 teams, I think it would make too much sense to base the third team out of Melbourne, not Canberra.

I think we need to be realistic about the current environment. We need to keep our best players on our shores and it's possible that to achieve that we have to cut to 3 teams. We might have to shrink the pro level in order to grow the game. I'm not in favour of it in terms of being a supporter, just being realistic.

Surely the 3rd team would be Perth based.

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

A solution could be to concentrate the Wallabies and the majority of Australian players within 3 teams and allow the other 2 Australian based teams to recruit players from anywhere. If that's the Force and Rebels then you'd still want those teams to have a strong contingent of locally developed players, but something like half their squads could be foreign players. There's plenty of good Pacific Islander, South African and Argentinian players out there and they can't all play in Europe and Japan.

Yep. In fact, another option at least from an Australian point of view is to look to recruit much of the Jaguares squad into our squads if reports of their disbanding turn out to be true. I actually thought that this was the better method of including Argentina when they joined SANZAAR. Each of the then S15 teams recruiting 5 or so Argentine players.

 

[KOB1987]

Surely the 3rd team would be Perth based.

Not if your primary motivation is financial viability

 

[KOB1987]

A solution could be to concentrate the Wallabies and the majority of Australian players within 3 teams and allow the other 2 Australian based teams to recruit players from anywhere. If that's the Force and Rebels then you'd still want those teams to have a strong contingent of locally developed players, but something like half their squads could be foreign players. There's plenty of good Pacific Islander, South African and Argentinian players out there and they can't all play in Europe and Japan.

I actually don't mind this idea. Force's starting point could be a GRR 'rep' side, and the extra Eastern team pick up the surplus from the other 3 sides, much like the Brumbies started out.

 

[dru]

Not if your primary motivation is financial viability

Eh? The only club/franchise in Australia that is independently funded? Serious?

 

[hoggy]

If this is the force podcast? If so I have listened and he doesn’t indicate anything about a reduction to teams in Australia.

His desire was for an elite competition below the Wallabies and a strong club base, he was never going to venture down the rabbit hole of which teams especially on a Force podcast, but the whole premise of an elite competition will bring that question into play. The issue is will that approach in regards to Australian rugby work and generate growth, Super rugby hasn't exactly achieved that outcome.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

I actually agree with Wayne Smiths article that twiggy holding all the cards here and doubt he won’t take the opportunity to play them on the old notion never let a crisis go to waste.

He will play RA and other stakeholders hard to see if can get best outcome for force and his wider vision for rugby. The messaging I took from Johnson in rugby podcast plus recent chairman meassaging is RA prepared to play ball to create best competition which maybe trans Tasman, rapid rugby mark 2 or whatever else twiggy pushes for.

I can’t see twiggy not taking advantage of this perfect storm despite all the rehtoric on Twf site. Twiggy just about has his hands on the keys to the car he can play a role in designing. Delusional I reckon to think he would rather press on with his fledgling rapid rugby comp with teams from 6 different countries in covid 19 world.

I think Johnson made it clear trans Tasman rather than domestic competition is path heading down as well

 

[Forceright]

I actually agree with Wayne Smiths article that twiggy holding all the cards here and doubt he won’t take the opportunity to play them on the old notion never let a crisis go to waste.

He will play RA and other stakeholders hard to see if can get best outcome for force and his wider vision for rugby. The messaging I took from Johnson in rugby podcast plus recent chairman meassaging is RA prepared to play ball to create best competition which maybe trans Tasman, rapid rugby mark 2 or whatever else twiggy pushes for.

I can’t see twiggy not taking advantage of this perfect storm despite all the rehtoric on Twf site. Twiggy just about has his hands on the keys to the car he can play a role in designing. Delusional I reckon to think he would rather press on with his fledgling rapid rugby comp with teams from 6 different countries in covid 19 world.

I think Johnson made it clear trans Tasman rather than domestic competition is path heading down as well

Dream on

 

[Rebels3]

His desire was for an elite competition below the Wallabies and a strong club base, he was never going to venture down the rabbit hole of which teams especially on a Force podcast, but the whole premise of an elite competition will bring that question into play. The issue is will that approach in regards to Australian rugby work and generate growth, Super rugby hasn't exactly achieved that outcome.

Once again he does not mention anything about a reduction. We can’t be imagining things and putting words or context into a conversation that didn’t exist. I agree there is a real threat to dropping teams however it has not been indicated by anyone at RA at present. Let’s live with facts and appropriate context than creating our own rhetoric especially when representing someone in a comment.

 

[KOB1987]

Eh? The only club/franchise in Australia that is independently funded? Serious?

Oh the Force will be fine. But at the expense of the east.

 

[Rebels3]

When did we get back into the shit fight of force vs the rest? Shows that any decision that doesn’t include all will just cause continued division. Let’s just hope the decision that’s made involves all and that tokenism isn’t used to justify inclusion in certain areas.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Dream on

Nah I think you are dreaming if you think a smart businessman like twiggy in our new covid world just going to continue to press on with his rapid rugby as is as opposed as to be opportunistic and take advantage of the crisis to get wa rugby and force at much better and higher seat at the table.

Sure assumption is has RA over the coals so they would bend to his wishes but reality is RA in a weak position for Twiggy to leverage for own gain out of this. What that looks like who knows but it will be obviously more what suits the party with the upper hand which irony is now this is twiggy where 6 months no way you would have said that

 

[KOB1987]

When did we get back into the shit fight of force vs the rest? Shows that any decision that doesn’t include all will just cause continued division. Let’s just hope the decision that’s made involves all and that tokenism isn’t used to justify inclusion in certain areas.

I like the Force, and they are going to be my second team in the upcoming domestic comp.

My issue with the Western Force is nothing to do with their players or their management. It’s their location on the map with regards to where the rest of either a TT or domestic pro comp will be played.

If they are to be included in either, so as not to affect the viability of the rest of the comp, the only solution I see is for them to cover the travel expenses, their own, and for visiting teams. Maybe not completely, but at least subsidised so they are similar to closer locations. And Twiggy may well be prepared to do this. But we know that will come with conditions.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

I like the Force, and they are going to be my second team in the upcoming domestic comp.

My issue with the Western Force is nothing to do with their players or their management. It’s their location on the map with regards to where the rest of either a TT or domestic pro comp will be played.

If they are to be included in either, so as not to affect the viability of the rest of the comp, the only solution I see is for them to cover the travel expenses, their own, and for visiting teams. Maybe not completely, but at least subsidised so they are similar to closer locations. And Twiggy may well be prepared to do this. But we know that will come with conditions.

With wa closed borders message is will play in a bubble out in east - that was why in wa podcast talking about Newcastle, Tamworth etc

 

[KOB1987]

With wa closed borders message is will play in a bubble out in east - that was why in wa podcast talking about Newcastle, Tamworth etc

Yes, I mean in a future comp

 

[Joe King]

Talk of Aus and NZ seriously looking to go to a TT option. Which seems to be somewhat supported by a report out of Argentina in La Nacion that Jaguars players having been given the go ahead to chase overseas contracts.

Is there a source for that, WCR? Thanks.

 

[Quick Hands]

Detailed and thought provoking as usual, WoB.

Unfortunately where it points is that an Aus pro rugby future with NZ is untenable. And NZ should seriously consider the ramifications of that. They can kick the can down the road, with a likely supportive RA, but ultimately it defaults in Australia to shrink to greatness. This might achieve a few more seasons for NZ but ultimately Aus fails and NZ achieves the same result, though with a strategy of slow speed train-wreck.

International connection has no reason to change. And perhaps a Champions Cup style TT conclusion to independent domestic comps can be arranged. Much more even playing field there if the Aus teams become rep teams, SOO or some format.

Back in Aus, plans for a broader domestic comp involving PI, or Japan, etc. These would likely be negotiated in competition with NZ - a competition we are hilariously unlikely to win. So should plan with NZ.

Increasingly, and disappointingly, I am resigned to the “slow speed train crash” strategy. In part because I have no reason think that RA are in sufficiently stupid to endorse it. And in part because NZRU are more likely to prove the decision maker.

There are no good solutions, but in Aus, if possible I would prefer a broader domestic comp, with short Super conclusion to the season. Thence internationals.

Unfortunately I think that you are right and what we are going to get is the slow train wreck.

One day there will be a domestic professional rugby competition in Australia (or we won't survive as a Tier 1 nation). The only real question is whether or not it is done now with the imminent collapse of Super Rugby or we try to cobble something together with NZ.

The NZ option will not work as you note because it either involves fewer Aus teams and thus reduces fan engagement or we have more teams in it who are uncompetitive with the NZ teams.

Following that we then move to the RugbyReg scenario of Wallabies and club rugby with nothing in between before we are able to structure a national domestic competition at some point in the future.

In short, the end result will be the same, just whether we do it now or spend millions trying to keep a state-based competition going until reality hits.

 

[Quick Hands]

just to allay your concerns slightly, IF (and it's not my preference) we were to have only 3 teams, I think it would make too much sense to base the third team out of Melbourne, not Canberra.

I think we need to be realistic about the current environment. We need to keep our best players on our shores and it's possible that to achieve that we have to cut to 3 teams. We might have to shrink the pro level in order to grow the game. I'm not in favour of it in terms of being a supporter, just being realistic.

I can't see how 3 or 4 teams or even 5 teams is going to be financially viable. Shrinking the number of teams to the bare minimum doesn't seem to be a way of generating sufficient revenue to keep pro-rugby alive.

If they aren't already, alarm bells should be ringing loudly at this.

The current $57m a year broadcast deal with Fox Sports looks like a river of gold that is about to dry up. There is speculation Fox will only pay $10m to $18m a year or even put rugby on a performance-based deal, and these rumours are making players nervous. The fear is that Australian rugby will become a semi-professional sport with the Wallabies the only marketable product remaining. In that event, players could not be blamed for wanting to leave.
RA has let go consultants Shane Mattiske and Michael Tange with chairman-elect Hamish McLennan to drive the broadcast negotiations as a “matter of urgency”. That could be an understatement. Fox Sports – or whoever RA negotiates with – may believe they hold all the cards, but RA does have one card up its sleeve – the gold Wallabies card. That needs to be leveraged for all it is worth and then some.
With the exception of the Reds trio, the players have kept their heads down so far, but they will follow the broadcast negotiations closely, keeping their options open. There will come a time around the end of September or the beginning of October when the players will demand certainty about the financial future of the game here or look elsewhere.
If RA is unable to deliver a sustainable broadcast deal, more and more players will leave, not just a few Queenslanders, placing enormous pressure on the shape and structure of Australian rugby. The clock is ticking.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...ustralia-to-avoid-mass-overseas-player-exodus