Somewhat deeper data below re Foxtel and the FFA media rights talks breakdown as have been reported in AFR (and referenced here for potential indirect relevance to Foxtel and Super Rugby 2021+):
- Foxtel pulled archive footage of FFA-related video material not through some kind of negotiating tactic (as leaped upon above by the I Hate Foxtel & Murdoch Brigade without any affirmed evidence .....as usual), but rather their legal view was one that as they had withdrawn from their FFA contract under force majeure contractual clauses, they automatically had no extant legal ights to FFA images and such material
- Foxtel pre-COVID was paying FFA $A57m pa under a deal through to 2023 (just wow really) which of course post COVID they now want out of
- Post COVID Foxtel offered FFA $11m for 2020 ongoing broadcast rights. FFA rejected this, talks collapsed. Foxtel withdrew.
The $11m is interesting for rugby (if proven to be true, AFR reporting of such matters is usually good). (Btw: $11m is higher than I would have guessed in these circumstances.) Why?
Well as of 2019 FFA A-League matches were achieving Foxtel viewership nos way under those of Super Rugby. (NB: I have not checked out the no of annual A-L matches involved, a potentially relevant variable vs Super Rugby game nos.)
If we take that $11m as a rough marker for the awful A-L Foxtel viewership nos that could be anticipated for 2020, and remembering FFA have little equivalent to the TRC and Bleds* (and assuming the 2021 comp is TT) on top of Super Rugby, it _may_ be able to be sensibly speculated that Foxtel would offer for 2021 all-in rugby in the approximate order of $18-$23m pa. FTA may top this up to the extent of $3m or so (assuming any Foxtel deal is non-inclusive of FTA anti-siphoning with Foxtel to on-sell-to-FTA rights).
What posters here often forget is that, in a 2021+ scenario that does not include SA rugby in any form - highly likely -, then RA lose the big US$ gain of the 3-4-way media rights pooling split whereby all 4 SANZAAR parties' media rights $s are pooled and then, by and large, divided such that the bigger 3 get the lion's share as an average and a smaller % share is left over for Argentina. This has always very materially benefitted RA disproportionally and partly why they became lazy leeches to the SANZAAR model. Now, in a TT comp, what new pooling formula (if any) would apply is very uncertain today as SKY SPORTS NZ paid a truckload in late 2019 for SANZAAR & Bled etc media rights post 2021 and the NZRU are not likely to give up the lion's share of those $s (which now may be reduced contractually if SA leave the comp) in a simple 50/50 total media rights pooling deal with RA, especially if the Aust media rights $s obtained for 2021+ are poor pro-team-rata as compared to NZ's.
The final complication is what media $s any new TT pro rugby comp for 2021+ could extract from Nth Hem media players. These $s were boom-bonanza level huge for 2015+ for various reasons and will be way, way less this time round and diluted further by the lack of SA games which are perfect for Nth Hem TZs. But there will be some 2021 +Nth Hem rugby media rights $s nonetheless, these are additive to RA's and the NZRU's coffers.
So the holistic picture is complicated but nonetheless still points to any Foxtel offer for post 2020 to RA being materially below the 2015-2019 levels and the total aggregate $s also being way less for all the reasons noted above.
The big question remaining of course being whether whatever total media $s RA can gain are enough to fund 4 Aust top pro teams and fund them not just for raw survival day-to-day but, critically, in a manner that ensures their viability in terms of coaching and squad quality. RA is surely smart enough** to know: they MUST be able to fund teams to a level of base delivered playing quality or any TT comp will see little but Aust teams being routinely smashed by NZ ones and thus the vicious circles of fan disengagement - proxied by crowd and viewership nos - will be just accelerating further downwards versus being arrested and improved.
(* It may be that Foxtel will wait to bid on RA's 2021 pro rugby plans until they see what the viewerships for 2020's TRC and Bleds are like, who could blame them if so.)
(** Did I just say that?)
