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Reds v. Crusaders, May 29th, Suncorp - 2011R15

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Ali's Choice

Ali's Choice

Jimmy Flynn (14)
Hawko said:
But that was before they lost half their potent backline to injury. Those who are predicting that are basing it on the Chiefs game where the Saders had to go back to conservative to win it.
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Exactly. With Dagg, Maitland and a fully fit SBW playing, the Crusaders looked to counter-attack whenever possible. With Dan Carter's long kicking game also missing for seven weeks, the Crusaders had more reason to run the ball. However with the recent injuries to their outside backs, and Dan Carter now back on deck, the Crusaders changed their gameplan for the 2nd half against the Chiefs. They looked to play more conservatively, play for territory, and attack the Reds set piece and breakdown. However that is easier said than done. The Waratahs tried similar tactics, and failed.
 
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RuckinGoodStats

Guest
Hawko said:
But that was before they lost half their potent backline to injury. Those who are predicting that are basing it on the Chiefs game where the Saders had to go back to conservative to win it.
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Easy for me to wind it back a week or two to do a comparison. Ideas what weeks you'd like me to go back to so that we're comfortable with what the data is saying? Crusaders kicked higher than normal against the chiefs backing up you point.
 
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TheTruth

Guest
REDS by 6 - It should be a fantastic spectacle with both teams going hard at it - combine the intensity of the game nwith a possible 50,000 fans (half will be our little brothers from across the ditch).
 
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RuckinGoodStats

Guest
Hmmm just read that Steve Walsh is the ref for this game. He's had the Crusaders once in London v Sharks and the Reds when they played the Tahs. Calculating for the effect that he went off for the 2nd half in the Reds game, he is by my count the ref who:
on average, awarded the most penalties;
the most, on average for ruck/mauls penalties; and
the most, on average, for scrum penalties.

Hes one of the least awarders of free kicks, so it full arm all the way.

Wonder if that will be a factor in the game for the record crowd and this important clash????
 
Sandpit Fan

Sandpit Fan

Nev Cottrell (35)
RuckinGoodStats said:
Hmmm just read that Steve Walsh is the ref for this game. He's had the Crusaders once in London v Sharks and the Reds when they played the Tahs. Calculating for the effect that he went off for the 2nd half in the Reds game, he is by my count the ref who:
on average, awarded the most penalties;
the most, on average for ruck/mauls penalties; and
the most, on average, for scrum penalties.
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Could work both ways:
Ruck/Maul penalties - perhaps he will blow the whistle on Ritchie a bit :eek:
Scrums penalties - this could be a problem, if (sorry, when..) the saders start working over the scrum near our line.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hanson in the run on side to stiffen the scrums up a bit, similar to the Stormers game.
 
qwerty51

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Actually Reds fans would be encouraged if they saw the Crusaders/Chiefs game.

In the 2nd halve when Thorn came on the Saders scrum started to destroy the Chiefs scrum and penalties ensued. Late in the 2nd halve the Saders had a 5m scrum on the Chiefs line and again got a penalty 15m in from touch and Richie elected for the posts which was mind-boggling decision to me at the time. They had clear dominance and it was looking quite obvious that a penalty try/yellow card would occur if he kept the pressure on. The Tahs got one out of the Chiefs so I really don't know what Richie was thinking.

The Crusaders should really go after the Reds scrum this weekend. Just like the Tahs did, but they can probably be more successful. I don't think they will however.
 
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RuckinGoodStats

Guest
Sandpit Fan said:
Could work both ways:
Ruck/Maul penalties - perhaps he will blow the whistle on Ritchie a bit :eek:
Scrums penalties - this could be a problem, if (sorry, when..) the saders start working over the scrum near our line.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hanson in the run on side to stiffen the scrums up a bit, similar to the Stormers game.
Click to expand...

The thing about Ritchie is that he know the lowest probability penalty kick places on the field, so when he get pinged for a penalty he plays the odds. Hmm I wonder where he gets those numbers from...
 
Hawko

Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
qwerty51 said:
The Crusaders should really go after the Reds scrum this weekend. Just like the Tahs did, but they can probably be more successful. I don't think they will however.
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If the Crusaders can be more successful in destroying the Reds scrum then the supporters should be afraid, very afraid.
 
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daz

Guest
RuckinGoodStats said:
Yeah but who awards those points?
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I know what you mean. I did take note of your stats of Walsh's history, but in all honesty I find Walsh a pretty decent ref. He does give clear and fair warning of what he expects before he unleashes a penalty and/or card, and he is usually pretty consistent both ways. I'm sure there are those out there that may have a far different opinion.

As to my original comment, even though it was quite flippant, the truth is that if the players take heed of the warnings and play the game within the rules, the points will come from the team that plays the best.
 
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