Mods please delete if too long, just some thoughts of an excited Crusaders fan who is trying not to think ahead to a possible final next weekend...
This will be the Crusaders best chance to qualify for a final since 2011. Despite being a hugely successful team, the Crusaders have suffered through some relatively lean years since their last title 2008. The vast majority of the current squad have never won a Super Rugby title and will be extremely motivated to win a championship this year, and get that monkey off their back.
People often cite travel as being a huge factor in Super Rugby games, particularly with one team traveling from SA to NZ. But I don’t think it will play a big part in this game. The Sharks will be confident in CHCH, having won there previously this year. Moreover, they left Durban almost immediately after their game last Saturday night and have been in camp in Christchurch since Monday evening, thus giving themselves plenty of time to recover from jetlag and acclimatize.
As with most sudden death, high pressure games of rugby, the result will be decided in two areas, the set-piece contest and the breakdown.
The set piece will be absolutely crucial to deciding the outcome of the match. The Sharks’ victory last weekend against the Highlanders, despite being outplayed in general play, was built around a hugely dominant set piece. Their execution of the scrum, lineout and lineout-maul were scarily accurate and immensely powerful. And they showed that in high pressure games, even relatively limited teams with conservative gameplans can win off the back of dominant set piece.
The Crusaders are the only NZ team that could even contemplate competing with the Sharks’ set piece. Their lineout has been accurate all season, with Whitelock, Read and Bird all offering excellent targets for Flynn and Funnell. With Whitelock and Bird attracting the tallest defending jumpers, Kieran Read will be used heavily by the Crusaders hookers as the 3rd option. Whilst not as tall as either Whitelock or Bird, Read is lighter to lift and has an incredibly long wingspan. He tends to float around the lineout, jumping at 2, 4 or the back, and this makes him a very tough target to mark, especially when he’s partnered alongside two towering AB locks. Willem Alberts is one of the finest locks in SANZAR, and his work both at lineout time and in general play will be absolutely crucial to the Sharks success. Stephan Lewies is a young lock who has had a breakout season at this level. At over 2m tall he’s obviously going to be a key target. Like Read, I also expect the Shark’s no.8 Kankowski to offer a genuine 3rd lineout option and be used frequently. In fact as a one-on-one matchup the battle of the no.8s will be intriguing.
The Crusader scrum has generally been very strong this season, and certainly the strongest of the NZ franchises. Owen Franks has been his consistent self throughout the year, and Wyatt Crockett seems to be enjoying the new scrum rules and interpretations. In Janie and Bismark du Plessis, the Sharks boast two of the strongest scrummaging front rowers in SANZAR. Youngster Thomas du Toit played well in his last match against the Clan, but will be severely tested against Franks. If he can hold his own against the experienced All Black tight head, you’d expect the Sharks to gain a slight ascendency at scrum time.
The battle of the breakdown will be almost as important as the set piece contest. In Jean Deysel and Marcell Coetzee the Sharks boast two classy, hard working and battle hardened flankers who will bring a high level of intensity and physicality to every breakdown contest. Many pundits, myself included, questioned the inclusion of Richie McCaw at the expense of the in-form Jordan Taufua. However haven given this selection more consideration I’ve concluded that McCaw’s superior defensive and breakdown workrate were the principal reasons why he was selected. Taufua offers much more of a threat with ball in hand, but McCaw is still one of the finest defenders in the game and is a constant nuisance at the breakdown despite no longer being the pilfering threat he once was.
Key for the Sharks will be the performances of their halves, in particular young Patrick Lambie. Lambie’s return from injury has been timely for the Sharks. Whilst Frans Steyn manfully held the ship together wearing no.10 in his absence, he lacks Lambie’s temperament and game management. Lambie’s direct opponent is the inconsistent Colin Slade, who has looked brilliant at times this year but also struggled on other occasions. I expect Dan Carter, who is wearing the no.12 tonight, to rotate frequently with Slade into first receiver and then replace him at pivot late in the game.
This won’t be a high scoring affair and tries will be at a premium. Both teams are extremely well organised in defense, and I predict that try scoring opportunities will be few and far between. Goal kicking accuracy will also be extremely important and this is another area that in Frans Steyn, the visitors should hold a slight advantage. Overall I believe this game is too close to call, but I’d love to see a Crusaders triumph.
