• Welcome to the Green and Gold Rugby forums. As you can see we've upgraded the forums to new software. Your old logon details should work, just click the 'Login' button in the top right.

The Climate Change Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.

wilful

Larry Dwyer (12)
I'm hoping for the upset of the year on Saturday. It could quite easily happen!
yeah but that's the constant vain hope of sports fans isn't it? The upset, think about the upset! Wont happen. Until it does of course. But as a fan, I have to watch anyway. Oh god it's painful. I made my son follow the demons in footy, now he's barracking for another loser team. Maybe I should go and read BaaBaa's post again about Wallaby fans unite.
 

Runner

Nev Cottrell (35)
This is such a bollocks argument. The reductio ad absurdum of your argument is that you cannot model anything and strict experimental evidence is the only standard for science. Really? Is that what you really believe?

(Though I have to say, it's a truism that all models are wrong, it's just that some models are less wrong than others)

In the first place, we do have the temperature records anyway, as well as all the other biological and geological evidence that climate change is occurring. But sticking with the 'flawed' models, what alternative can you offer?

You can back-cast the models, without having to "fit" them, just using the data and the calculations, and in fact they fit very well with observations. That works even in the 1800s. So obviously something is going right. Risby et al. (2014) checked model accuracy just this year, and found them to have excellent predictive power.

Keep coming up with zombie ideas, we've heard them all before, they've all been thoroughly investigated and refuted in the scientific literature.


Once again I point out that I have not said climate change is not happening but to place it all at the feet of one gas is short sighted and incorrect. Also other factors can explain sea level changes . Ah for the days when it was all the result of atmospheric atom bomb testing and models on nuclear winter.

Many of the records are historical as you say back to 1800 but 200 years when compared to geological records is a bit short. Also as Prof Plimer points out geological record donsn't agree with most of the modelling.

Explain the previous periods when the earth heated and man was NOT even present.
 

wilful

Larry Dwyer (12)
Once again I point out that I have not said climate change is not happening but to place it all at the feet of one gas is short sighted and incorrect.
Actually it's at lest six gases. and "incorrect" when the basic premise was worked out in the mid-19th century and confirmed by the 1950s. And subsequently backed by everyone. If not the greenhouse effect, then what?

Also other factors can explain sea level changes.
I look forward to your forthcoming publication
Many of the records are historical as you say back to 1800 but 200 years when compared to geological records is a bit short.
but of course air records from ice samples go back much farther than that, and there are many other ways of effectively reconstructing the data.
Also as Prof Plimer points out geological record donsn't agree with most of the modelling.
Cite? Not by Plimer but by a real working geologist.

Explain the previous periods when the earth heated and man was NOT even present.
CO2 levels, planets orbit, position of continents, many reasons. But never as fast as observed now.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period-intermediate.htm
 

boyo

Mark Ella (57)
TA couldn't be wrong about something, could he?

Why Abbott's faith in coal could be wrong - very wrong

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/why-abbotts-faith-in-coal-could-be-wrong--very-wrong-20141017-117k1b.html#ixzz3GRw2ACcy


"The reality is demand for coal in the developed world is declining, and the developing world is turning as fast as it can to other sources of power"

"As it stands, as many as half of Australia's coalmines are unprofitable.

Most continue to pump out coal because they are tied to long-term transport contracts that would require them to pay out rail and shipping companies whether they are loading coal or not."
 

formerflanker

Ken Catchpole (46)
TA couldn't be wrong about something, could he?

Why Abbott's faith in coal could be wrong - very wrong

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/why-abbotts-faith-in-coal-could-be-wrong--very-wrong-20141017-117k1b.html#ixzz3GRw2ACcy

"The reality is demand for coal in the developed world is declining, and the developing world is turning as fast as it can to other sources of power"

"As it stands, as many as half of Australia's coalmines are unprofitable.

Most continue to pump out coal because they are tied to long-term transport contracts that would require them to pay out rail and shipping companies whether they are loading coal or not."

It would be great if an entrepreneur finds a way to produce cheaper electricity, but until that becomes a fact then PM Abbott is pulling the right reins.
Note the article you referred to is an OPINION piece, not hard reporting - and even then uses the evasive word "could" in the headline. I don't think it is a useful article, especially on a day that sees Monash University acknowledging the pause in global warming.
Michael Asten, from the school of earth atmosphere and environment at Monash University, says there have been 15 articles commenting on and analysing the pause, or hiatus, published by the top journal group Nature in the past two years.

“While opinions on causes differ, existence of the pause is settled; only activists dare claim the pause in global temperature does not exist,” Asten says.
 

sevenpointdropgoal

Larry Dwyer (12)
Michael Asten, from the school of earth atmosphere and environment at Monash University, says there have been 15 articles commenting on and analysing the pause, or hiatus, published by the top journal group Nature in the past two years.

“While opinions on causes differ, existence of the pause is settled; only activists dare claim the pause in global temperature does not exist,” Asten says.


I don't understand the fuss about a pause. Short term variations in climate trends show up regularly in historical climate data. Basically all it amounts too is a flattening of the rate of surface temperature increase in measured temperate regions and, according to a few (but not all) measurements, bits of Antarctica.

Stratospheric warming, deep ocean warming and surface warming in the Arctic have not slowed down, and these are all more important predictors in virtually all viable climate models.

On top of this, the flattening of the rate of warming and temporary cooling in parts of Antarctica are completely in keeping with the long term global warming modelling.

Also, Asten is a part time geophysics Professor who specialises in mineral exploration. He is perfectly entitled to his opinion, but it's a stretch to claim that Monash University in it's entirety has accepted the idea of a pause in warming.
 

boyo

Mark Ella (57)
Search for a source: Contemplating Australia’s energy future

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/ockhamsrazor/5843978

"Deep cuts to emissions are needed soon.
In Australia, the worst contributor to greenhouse gas emissions is fossil fuelled electricity generation. Australia is one of the world's top 10 emitters of carbon dioxide from electricity and heat production—ranked seventh in tonnes of emissions from coal fuelled power.
On a per capita basis, we are the worst of all OECD nations, more than double the OECD average, and our electricity is the most emissions intensive per kilowatt-hour of any developed nation.
It’s not just that we rely heavily on coal. We burn it in a fleet of ageing power stations using obsolete technology, making them some of the developed world's dirtiest."
 

boyo

Mark Ella (57)
The Coalition had to have a different plan to Labor's, to separate themselves.

Nevermind that an E.T.S. is a market-based mechanism - they had to be different.

Here's an idea: Let's pay the polluters

I am going to say it one more time, simply on the grounds I still can't believe it. Because you know it, and I know it. This country had a perfectly good system for reducing emissions, based on the premise that the big polluters had to pay us, the people, for polluting. It fitted exactly with the thesis co-authored by Greg Hunt in 1991, entitled A Tax to Make the Polluter Pay.
Tell 'em, Minister, what you wrote: "Ultimately it is by harnessing the natural economic forces which drive society that the pollution tax offers us an opportunity to exert greater control over our environment." And he was demonstrably right. As proven in July this year, when in operation, we saw "the greatest emissions decline since records began ... as the economy continued to grow."
And yet, after a very skilful campaign by the Coalition - if we all close our eyes, and ignore it, it might just go away - the tax was abandoned. Now, Hunt, our "Environment Minister" (and I am not making that up), is championing the new scheme, of "Direct Action". It rests on the premise that we, the people, pay the polluters not to pollute. Yes'm, instead of them paying us for polluting, we give them taxpayer money and in return they promise to reduce emissions. I get that this is insane. You get that this is insane. How is it that Minister Hunt doesn't get that, when he wrote the freaking book on it in 1991!?!?

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/heres-an-idea-lets-pay-the-polluters-20141031-11ew5u.html
 

boyo

Mark Ella (57)
Fossil fuel industry’s dirty tricks campaign exposed

http://www.independentaustralia.net...-industrys-dirty-tricks-campaign-exposed,7064

"Berman described the job of convincing people as he sees it — introducing just enough doubt that even if people don’t support an issue, they’re confused enough to write it off.
Instead of getting the ‘he said she said’ debate, what you will get with the factual debate, often times, you’re going to get into people get overwhelmed by the science and ‘I don’t know who to believe. But if you got enough on your side you get people into a position of paralysis on the issue. You get into people’s minds a tie. They don’t know who is right. And you get all ties because a tie basically ensures the status quo.”

If you can't blind them with science, baffle them with bullshit.
 

boyo

Mark Ella (57)
1962691_10152822256035797_20696365721077000_n.jpg
 

boyo

Mark Ella (57)
https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-AK (Andrew Kellaway)-xap1/v/t1.0-9/p526x296/10686860_738514482900525_1068602266277297870_n.jpg?oh=b3bfe676e85d464a68ef95c950e2f6e7&oe=54D79FB4&__gda__=1424729066_a9983c94a324c8e7b51a5639888326c3
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top