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Jim Lenehan (48)
Interesting article in Times. Mostly referring to Wales in last 15 minutes but interesting re Nh in general methinks.
Our coaches have analysed metres run per minute and have come up with some interesting stats and explanations why we lose games in the final 10/15 minutes.
John Westerby
Last updated at 12:01AM, November 27 2014
When is a game of rugby won and lost? No two matches are the same, clearly, but when a northern-hemisphere team meet one of the southern-hemisphere heavyweights, the final quarter increasingly seems to be the time when New Zealand, South Africa or Australia are able to press home an advantage.
Sam Warburton, the Wales captain, was unequivocal in the aftermath of his team’s defeat by New Zealand last weekend. “The most important part of a Test match is the last ten minutes,” Warburton said. “That’s where we need to improve.”
Time and again the big three from the southern hemisphere prove their ability to make match-winning plays in the dying moments. Think Ryan Crotty’s try for the All Blacks against Ireland this time last year, or Conrad Smith’s late score against England in Auckland. Wales have been ahead after 68 minutes in their most recent games against South Africa, Australia and New Zealand, but lost all three. In the endurance race of international rugby, more often than not it is the southern-hemisphere team who last the distance.
The ability to conjure late scores is so often put down to character, heart or spirit. The numbers now being provided by GPS technology, though, are offering a more scientific explanation: southern-hemisphere teams perform better in the last ten minutes because they are more accustomed to the pace at which an international game is played.
The GPS statistics gathered by Wales’ coaches show that during a match involving New Zealand, South Africa or Australia, players will typically cover about 80 metres per minute. The step up from European domestic rugby is clear: in the Guinness Pro12, an average distance would be 50 to 55 metres per minute, the Aviva Premiership is rather higher, while in the European Champions Cup, an average would be 65 to 70 metres per minute.
The most startling figure, though, is that players in the Super 15 will cover 85 metres per minute. The effect on lungs and legs is obvious, but the minds of Super 15 players are used to making decisions under the levels of fatigue experienced in the closing stages of an international match.
As Rob Howley, the Wales assistant coach, said this month: “It’s very difficult for our players to step up over 25 metres per minute. What this means is that in the final minutes of a game against one of those three teams, fatigue sets in, mental and physical, decision-making under pressure suffers and crucial mistakes are made.”
Those figures, provided by the devices sewn into the back of the players’ shirts, are an average calculation across a whole team for a typical game. The front-five forwards, evidently, will not cover as much ground as the back three. The scrum half and inside centre will often cover the greatest distances. For Wales’s international against Australia this month, one player covered 94 metres per minute.
The statistics will, of course, vary from game to game, depending on the weather, the quality of the pitch and the tactics employed by both teams. They do, however, demonstrate the scale of the challenge for the likes of Stuart Lancaster and Warren Gatland, whether they choose to match their southern-hemisphere opponents for pace or endurance, or coerce them into playing a slower game based more around the set-piece.
Gatland, the Wales head coach, has set his mind on closing this gap before the World Cup next year. The first two weeks that Wales spent in camp this autumn featured an extra training session each day in an attempt to boost his players’ endurance. After an intensive session on Wattbikes in an altitude chamber, they would undergo decision-making exercises in a fatigued state. “Warren has manufactured that intensity in training and what we face this month is different to when you play northern-hemisphere sides,” Howley said.
Eyebrows were raised when this intensive regime continued into the week of the Australia game, but Gatland was unapologetic, asking to be judged on results at the World Cup, not the autumn internationals. Few coaches are granted the luxury of being judged over the long term, but Gatland’s record with Wales has earned him the right. With a full summer of preparation next year, Gatland, Lancaster and all their coaching rivals will be trying to build their players towards an athletic peak for the World Cup.
For southern-hemisphere players, the requirement to cover 85 metres per minute does not suit everyone. Richard Cockerill, the Leicester director of rugby, observes that players whose game is based on power rather than pace may gravitate towards the northern hemisphere. “Brad Thorn [the former New Zealand lock, now at Leicester Tigers] is a good example, he’s 39 now and probably a bit slow for the Super 15, but the Premiership suits his game,” Cockerill said. “The southern-hemisphere players who settle best in the Premiership are often considered not quite athletic enough to be considered top-end in their country.”
Finding the right balance of power and pace — in terms of personnel, in terms of game plan — remains the coach’s constant conundrum.
Come the last ten minutes of an international, though, they want players whose minds remain clear enough to spot the opportunity for that match-winning try. The World Cup could depend on it.
Our coaches have analysed metres run per minute and have come up with some interesting stats and explanations why we lose games in the final 10/15 minutes.
John Westerby
Last updated at 12:01AM, November 27 2014
When is a game of rugby won and lost? No two matches are the same, clearly, but when a northern-hemisphere team meet one of the southern-hemisphere heavyweights, the final quarter increasingly seems to be the time when New Zealand, South Africa or Australia are able to press home an advantage.
Sam Warburton, the Wales captain, was unequivocal in the aftermath of his team’s defeat by New Zealand last weekend. “The most important part of a Test match is the last ten minutes,” Warburton said. “That’s where we need to improve.”
Time and again the big three from the southern hemisphere prove their ability to make match-winning plays in the dying moments. Think Ryan Crotty’s try for the All Blacks against Ireland this time last year, or Conrad Smith’s late score against England in Auckland. Wales have been ahead after 68 minutes in their most recent games against South Africa, Australia and New Zealand, but lost all three. In the endurance race of international rugby, more often than not it is the southern-hemisphere team who last the distance.
The ability to conjure late scores is so often put down to character, heart or spirit. The numbers now being provided by GPS technology, though, are offering a more scientific explanation: southern-hemisphere teams perform better in the last ten minutes because they are more accustomed to the pace at which an international game is played.
The GPS statistics gathered by Wales’ coaches show that during a match involving New Zealand, South Africa or Australia, players will typically cover about 80 metres per minute. The step up from European domestic rugby is clear: in the Guinness Pro12, an average distance would be 50 to 55 metres per minute, the Aviva Premiership is rather higher, while in the European Champions Cup, an average would be 65 to 70 metres per minute.
The most startling figure, though, is that players in the Super 15 will cover 85 metres per minute. The effect on lungs and legs is obvious, but the minds of Super 15 players are used to making decisions under the levels of fatigue experienced in the closing stages of an international match.
As Rob Howley, the Wales assistant coach, said this month: “It’s very difficult for our players to step up over 25 metres per minute. What this means is that in the final minutes of a game against one of those three teams, fatigue sets in, mental and physical, decision-making under pressure suffers and crucial mistakes are made.”
Those figures, provided by the devices sewn into the back of the players’ shirts, are an average calculation across a whole team for a typical game. The front-five forwards, evidently, will not cover as much ground as the back three. The scrum half and inside centre will often cover the greatest distances. For Wales’s international against Australia this month, one player covered 94 metres per minute.
The statistics will, of course, vary from game to game, depending on the weather, the quality of the pitch and the tactics employed by both teams. They do, however, demonstrate the scale of the challenge for the likes of Stuart Lancaster and Warren Gatland, whether they choose to match their southern-hemisphere opponents for pace or endurance, or coerce them into playing a slower game based more around the set-piece.
Gatland, the Wales head coach, has set his mind on closing this gap before the World Cup next year. The first two weeks that Wales spent in camp this autumn featured an extra training session each day in an attempt to boost his players’ endurance. After an intensive session on Wattbikes in an altitude chamber, they would undergo decision-making exercises in a fatigued state. “Warren has manufactured that intensity in training and what we face this month is different to when you play northern-hemisphere sides,” Howley said.
Eyebrows were raised when this intensive regime continued into the week of the Australia game, but Gatland was unapologetic, asking to be judged on results at the World Cup, not the autumn internationals. Few coaches are granted the luxury of being judged over the long term, but Gatland’s record with Wales has earned him the right. With a full summer of preparation next year, Gatland, Lancaster and all their coaching rivals will be trying to build their players towards an athletic peak for the World Cup.
For southern-hemisphere players, the requirement to cover 85 metres per minute does not suit everyone. Richard Cockerill, the Leicester director of rugby, observes that players whose game is based on power rather than pace may gravitate towards the northern hemisphere. “Brad Thorn [the former New Zealand lock, now at Leicester Tigers] is a good example, he’s 39 now and probably a bit slow for the Super 15, but the Premiership suits his game,” Cockerill said. “The southern-hemisphere players who settle best in the Premiership are often considered not quite athletic enough to be considered top-end in their country.”
Finding the right balance of power and pace — in terms of personnel, in terms of game plan — remains the coach’s constant conundrum.
Come the last ten minutes of an international, though, they want players whose minds remain clear enough to spot the opportunity for that match-winning try. The World Cup could depend on it.
