Bledisloe #1 - AUS v NZL, ANZ Stadium, Sydney, August 8th

[qwerty51]

Cheika's in a pickle here. He's got to play his full strength/best side here and try to get a win. But if he does, we've got a Bledisloe the following week - how can you possibly not play the same team again?? That means heavier workload on his key players and some of the fringe guys won't have a played recently and untested for the RWC squad.

 

[Groucho]

​

Who's got the silver bullet ?​

​

They're choking on it.

 

[Groucho]

They are hard to bash because they are so damn clever and skilled. Attack their strengths might be a strategy for some of the game.

Sun Tzu: attack their weaknesses.

What weaknesses? Well, they almost lost on Saturday. I'm sure the Wallabies brainstrust will be busy deconstructing that.

Ironically, one weakness is the scrum. The Boks had it all over them before going for uncontested scrums. We should unrelentingly attack their scrum. Funny things start to happen after ten seconds of pushing. Maybe this time it won't be to us.

There are huge collateral benefits if it works.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I think we've got to take the AB's head on. There are no short cuts to beating them. You've got to start with a water tight set piece and as Groucho says, attack theirs relentlessly. The next thing is we've got to win the collisions and get consistent go forward. That means running hard and straight, smashing people off the ball at the breakdown and guys getting the ball out in front and hitting it at pace. We're also going to have to chase every kick very hard, because the Blacks love to play on quickly from the back, it's one of the primary way they get their points. It has to be total harassment for the full 80.

There will be lungs burning by the end but it's what will be required to even get close.

 

[ACT Crusader]

The big thing for both sides is who's bench will bring the most impact.

Most tests are pretty tight for the first 40, it's how the lungs hold up and how each use their subs, and then how they play which I think will decide things.

 

[light]

Picking a 23 for this one is tough.

I'd go with:
1. Sio
2. Moore
3. Holmes
4. Simmons
5. Horwill
6. Fardy
7. Pocock
8. McCalman
9, Phipps
10. Foley
11. Horne
12. Gits (assuming To'omua isn't fit)
13. TK
14. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
15. Izzy

16. TPN
17. Slipper
18. Kepu
19. Skelton
20. Mumm (assuming Hooper unavailable)
21. White
22. Beale/Cooper
23. Mitchell

I don't want to see Slipper start, nor do I want to see To'omua even if he is fit (minimum 2 weeks off). I reckon QC (Quade Cooper)/Beale could be a good combination at the death, especially with Skelton causing havoc in tight. Would also like to see what Big Kev can do/if Mumm's performance last week was a flash in the pan. Need to see what Mitchell's got too.

Hooper would have been ideal for the bench but I can't see SANZAR letting that punch slide.

 

[Marcelo]

I think To'omua needs rest in both games against ABs. He has too many blows on his head in the last months and he will be a very important player for the WC.

Without Hooper and To'omua. This is my team

1 Sio
2 Moore (c)
3 Holmes
4 Simmons
5 Skelton
6 Fardy
7 Pocock
8 McCalman
9 Phipps
10 Giteau
11 Tomane
12 Leali'ifano
13 Kuridrani
14 AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
15 Folau

16 TPN
17 Smith (Slipper needs rest)
18 Kepu
19 Horwill
20 Mumm
21 White
22 Beale
23 Horne

 

[Braveheart81]

Cheika's in a pickle here. He's got to play his full strength/best side here and try to get a win. But if he does, we've got a Bledisloe the following week - how can you possibly not play the same team again?? That means heavier workload on his key players and some of the fringe guys won't have a played recently and untested for the RWC squad.

If we win the first Bledisloe test, Cheika has to go all guns blazing at the second match.

After such a drought, a chance at winning the Bledisloe Cup shouldn't be passed up.

Hooper would have been ideal for the bench but I can't see SANZAR letting that punch slide.

I can see him getting one week though based on his clean record if he is found guilty which should make him available for the first Bledisloe test as he could technically play for Manly this weekend.

 

[Pfitzy]

Dreaming BH. Aussie player with a Bledisloe coming up?

"Banned from all rugby until 10:31PM on the 8th of August"

 

[Train Without a Station]

10 Giteau

12 Leali'ifano

Absolutely cannot see this happening. One player Cheika has clearly not been interested in during the lead ups, and another he has said he only sees him as a 10.

Most importantly the 3rd 10-12 combo in 3 games with not a single player maintaining the same position is pretty insane.

It's the old logic that Cooper and Foley didn't do great at 10 so Giteau must be better since he wasn't there to look bad.

 

[zer0]

I expect Shag has had this game marked in the calendar for a fair while now, where he'll play pretty close to the strongest team he's got available and if the AB's pull off a win, have the return NZ match as the last chance saloon game for the fringe players to book their tickets to the WC.

I envision the opposite. Let Slade, Milner-Skudder, Laulala etc... all have a decent run and then follow it up with the typical Eden Park monstering by the 1st XV.

Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if they play the match like we did in 2011; let the Australians run wild and just test out our defence (god knows it needs it). Maybe take it further and even just play nothing but some good old fashioned 10-man rugby, and pick all four first-fives and have each kick a couple of drop-goals for the sake of practice.

 

[Langthorne]

The Kiwis are beatable, but it won't be easy. One positive is that the Springboks had them on toast for much of the match on Saturday, but they switched off at critical moments, and then were a bit unlucky with the uncontested scrums.

We absolutely must select our strongest available side, as this is not the time to experiment with untried players.

I'm not saying the Kiwi scrum and lineout are bad, but I think the Wallabies could get some benefit from putting a lot of pressure on Coles - the South Africans did. Also, Allende and Kriel had a lot of success running through (and sometimes around) Kiwi defenders (including Nonu and C Smith). Most importantly, we have to play with maximum aggression whilst also completing the individual skills well (passes, tackles, kicks, clean outs).

Kicking a few penalties and conversions wouldm't hurt either.

 

[Fireworks]

1. Sio
2. Moore
3. Kepu
4. Simmons

If Hooper is cleared:
5. Horwill
6. Pocock
7. Hooper
8. McCalman

If not cleared:
5. Skelton
6. Fardy
7. Pocock
8. McCalman

9. Phipps
10. Foley
11. Horne
12. To'omua (?) / Lealiifano
13. Kuridrani
14. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
15. Folau

16. TPN
17. Slipper (?) / Smith
18. Holmes
19. Skelton (If cleared)/ Horwill (If not cleared)
20. Fardy (If cleared)/ Higgers or Palu (If not cleared)
21. White
22. Cooper
23. Beale

 

[fatprop]

I expect something like this (with injury/suspension options marked)

1 Sio
2 Moore (c)
3 Holmes
4 Simmons
5 Skelton
6 Fardy
7 Pocock
8 Palu
9 Phipps
10 Foley
11 Tomane
12 To'omua/Giteau
13 Kuridrani
14 Horne
15 Folau

16 TPN
17 Slipper/Smith
18 Kepu
19 Horwill
20 McCalman
21 Hooper/McMahan
22 White
23 Giteau/AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)

 

[fatprop]

Cheika's in a pickle here. He's got to play his full strength/best side here and try to get a win. But if he does, we've got a Bledisloe the following week - how can you possibly not play the same team again?? That means heavier workload on his key players and some of the fringe guys won't have a played recently and untested for the RWC squad.

Play your side and go for it, try to win some shit, our depth is good enough to cover some injuries (that doesn't mean we will be good enough to win, just that we should be trying to build momentum)

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

The big thing for both sides is who's bench will bring the most impact.

Most tests are pretty tight for the first 40, it's how the lungs hold up and how each use their subs, and then how they play which I think will decide things.

Yeah I think the first couple of rounds have shown that, which is why I'm feeling a little more optimistic this year -- our bench has been an asset.

 

[Tex]

Slightly off topic but for those in Melbourne on the 8th there's a screening of a Kiwi doco about rugby via the Melbourne International Film Festival. Might be a good way to get fired up prior to the evening's festivities.

http://thegroundwewon.com/
www.miff.com.au

 

[emuarse]

Yeah, but I'd have a quid on it that my "A team" is not the same as your "A team" in any number of positions. So I don't agree that its starting to select itself.

Cheika is still between a rock and a hard place. He needs to win at least once in the two Bledisloe games or have two very narrow losses. But he also needs to find out what his best squad is before the RWC and that means trying people out in different positions. Some of those mightn't work. I don't envy his task.

Just a sample of his dilemma's:

• Slipper is probably in the A team but on form you would not select him for the Bledisloes and you would have him in team rehab till the RWC. That means Sio and Smith for LHP. But, can either of them handle Franks?
• Skelton was so-so in the first game and much better in the second. But NZ are a huge step up from Argentina. Does he continue with him starting or try him off the bench?
• Horwill looked great off the bench but so did Mumm. Maybe if Hooper gets a holiday for the first game then both can be on the subs bench, but then Higgers is written off after one bad game where Cheika told him to play on the wing.
• Neither Foley or Cooper covered themselves in glory at 10. Foley was marginally better but his opposition was weaker. Unless Cheika takes a left field option like To'omua, Gits or Lilo then he needs to trial both against NZ to see how they really go under pressure.
• If To'omua fails the concussion test and Giteau doesn't recover from his sternum injury, Who goes to 12? Lilo?
• Is Tomane better than Horne? Only way to find out is to play them and see. But does Speight get a trial in Bledisloe 2?

Better him than me solving these puzzles.

It would seem that these two are the Wallaby fly-halves for the season, one backing up the other.
For the first Bledisloe in Sydney I'd start with Cooper, and bring on Foley in the second half, and then vice versa in the second game in Auckland for two reasons.
1) Cooper will be loudly heckled in Auckland in a run on side. You could say he should get over that (as indeed, so should the crowd), but in each case, they won't.
2) This alternating the flyhalves should happen, no matter whom the halfback, as injury could raise its ugly head at any time to any of the four players (2 flyhalves & 2 halfbacks).

 

[Brendan Hume]

I hope the Wallabies and the ARU do something special for Richie's last game on Australian soil. As much as he's been there to rain on our parade for so faaaaarking long, he is an incredible competitor - possibly the best ever - and deserves the appreciation of the Australian rugby and sporting community.

 

[Viking]

The Kiwis are beatable, but it won't be easy. One positive is that the Springboks had them on toast for much of the match on Saturday, but they switched off at critical moments, and then were a bit unlucky with the uncontested scrums.

We absolutely must select our strongest available side, as this is not the time to experiment with untried players.

I'm not saying the Kiwi scrum and lineout are bad, but I think the Wallabies could get some benefit from putting a lot of pressure on Coles - the South Africans did. Also, Allende and Kriel had a lot of success running through (and sometimes around) Kiwi defenders (including Nonu and C Smith). Most importantly, we have to play with maximum aggression whilst also completing the individual skills well (passes, tackles, kicks, clean outs).

Kicking a few penalties and conversions wouldm't hurt either.

How good are Allende and Kriel looking on attack. Very threatening. With our 2nd playmaker system our centres don't nearly look as threatening. Kuridrani could match it but we don't have the speed like they do. Once Allende starts reading defences well they'd be the top centre pairing going round. Scary stuff.