2013 Giro d'Italia

[Ash]

Who is watching this year's Giro?

Will likely be a battle between Nibali, Wiggins and Hesjedal. Hopefully Evans can be up there too, but he hasn't raced too much in the last 10 months due to sickness and age may be catching up to him.

Not really a fan of Wiggins, so I'll be cheering on Nibbles, Ryder and Cadel for the Giro.

There's plenty of Aussies riding too, spread across 1/3 of the teams.

 

[sammy3191]

I'm watching it or trying to watch it, usually get to about 30kms from the finish then fall asleep.

Wiggins not a happy camper following the loss of time a couple of nights ago, Cadel looks good, just don't think hes in it to win it, just getting some form back.

Think Nibali will take the honours this year.

 

[Gibbo]

One of the Italian's should win it. Wiggin's doesn't have the support to get through the hills. Nibali will drop him - Cadel will stay with Nibali similar to the way he stayed with Alberto in the TdF in. ie Drop me if you can. Heijsdal looks strong too.

So good to see Wiggin's struggle on a 'flat stage'. I don't think their race management is at all there without the holy trinity of Froome/Porte/Rogers.

 

[Ash]

I think that tonight's stage is one that could catch Wiggins out. Profile:

Very hilly classic type stage, similar to one from TA this year.

Unfortunately, it's the day before the TT, so the main GC contenders may take it easy because of that, allowing a breakaway win. That being said, I hope Hesjedal goes on the attack with Nibali.

If we're really lucky, we could see something similar to the epic stage in the 2010 Giro that saw a massive breakaway of 50 (!) riders get 30 minutes up on the main contenders at one stage. Porte (who came 7th thanks to the breakaway) and Arroyo (who came second thanks to the breakaway) both gained 13 minutes on the main GC riders! All we need is some nasty nasty rain (although I hope Evans doesn't get sick like he did in 2010, as it ruined his chances at victory).

Wiggins' squad is actually not bad for the hills - the Columbians Henao and Uran are very good riders in the hills and mountains. I'd like to see Uran getting the chance at a GC one day.

 

[Ash]

If anyone is waiting for the mountains, then stage 9 (Sunday I think) and stage 10 (Tuesday I think) are the first stages to start watching.

 

[Ash]

Good stage last night, lots of rain.

Wiggins lost over a minute, which he will take back on the time trial but really opens it up.

Good stage for Australians - Adam Hansen took a great win, and Cadel was up with the other favourites. Adam Hansen is a great domestique who does all the shit work for the sprinters, spending ages on the front of the peloton, so a well deserved win. Those domestiques don't often get a chance for a big win.

Unfortunately for Cadel he lost a helper, but fortunately not one of his key guys. Santaromita, Morabito and Cummings will be the key guys for Cadel as the race goes on, while Oss and Phinney will do a lot of the grunt work for him on the flats. He can't afford to lose those guys.

edit: SBS highlights here:
http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/video/29872707652/Giro-d-Italia-highlights-Stage-7

 

[Ash]

TT tonight, it's a bit technical and lumpy.

Profile:

That's actually a big, nasty ramp at the end.

Here's the profile of that ramp:

Some nasty gradients in the last 1km.

The TT is also pretty technical, with a lot of turns. Here's the route:

What does this mean?

It means guys like Nibali won't lose nearly as much time to a TT specialist like Wiggins. Although a long TT giving Wiggins a lot of chances to put time into Hesjedal and Nibali, being up and down and lots of technical corners lessens the advantage of a big turbo diesel like Wiggins.

For Evans, this is where we find out if he has any form or not. You can't hide in long TTs or on big mountains, and this is his first real test. Evans and BMC have been talking down his form a bit, but it looks like Evans has come pretty well prepared so far and I hope he goes well.

 

[cyclopath]

That is a nasty ramp!! Eeek!

 

[Ash]

Wiggins having a shocker of a TT. Apparently crashed, mechanical and looking to be struggling as he's well down at the first TT. Team mates Uran and Henao faster at first checkpoint. Sky made both of those guys wait for Wiggins, costing them both one and a half minutes yesterday.

Eurosport commentators can't tell the difference between Henao and Wiggins for a long time.

Evans is off and nearly hits a wall on the first turn. Can't tell how Evans is going yet, looks OK but hard to tell.

 

[Ash]

First half was really technical though and Wiggins looked very nervous through the corners, but he doesn't look good up a hill right now - over 50 seconds down on Dowsett, current leader.

 

[Ash]

Evans second at the first check point, 22 seconds behind Dowsett.

Wiggins meanwhile made up fantastic time in the second half, as he came in second fastest of the finishers so far, just 10s down on Dowsett. He saved what looked like a horrible TT into quite a good one. Wiggins does have a habit of back ending his TTs.

edit: It was that last ramp that did it for Wiggins. He flew up it, like a prologue. He took nearly 50 seconds out of Dowsett's time on the last ramp! Changed finishing 1 minute down into just 10 seconds down.

 

[Ash]

Nibali comes in at 1st in the first intermediate split, 8 seconds up on Dowsett and 30 up on Evans. Ryder was further back on Evans.

 

[Ash]

Scarponi was about the same as Wiggins, so it appears that Dowsett died in the last ramp more than some of the others flew up it, but still a good finishing effort from Wiggins.

Wow, Evans really really poor through the second section, and he hits the bottom of the ramp just 8th fastest, 1 min 33 seconds behind Dowsett.

Good final ramp from Evans, but still disappointing over all. Comes in 39 seconds down on Dowsett, but more importantly, 29 seconds down on Wiggins. He recovered nearly a minute up that final ramp. Evans not in top form, or age is catching up, but still a damn good effort nonetheless. 6th fastest for Evans, which will probably end up as 7th once Nibali comes in.

Meanwhile, Hesjedal is struggling, coming in at 2:44 down to the final checkpoint.

 

[Ash]

Nibali comes in at 6th, 1.07 down.

Evans in virtual pink currently, 46 ahead of Gesink, with Wiggins a further 1 second behind.

Think Nibali will be in pink after the stage, but not by as much as it appeared just before. Nibali not looking as good as Evans up the ramp so far.

Dowsett has the stage by the looks, well done to the Englishman on Movistar. Early in the day it looked like he had no chance to hold on.

 

[Ash]

Evans took a few seconds out of Wiggins on the final hill, too. Good finish from Evans, he paced himself pretty well.

Hesjedal struggling up the ramp in comparison to Evans. Hesjedal comes in 17th so far, 2:23 down on Dowsett.

Meanwhile, Nibali looks better coming up the ramp. Great final effort, but short of Dowsett and Wiggins. Nibali comes in 4th, 21 seconds down. 11 seconds down on Wiggins, 18 up on Evans. Nibali will be in pink tonight, Evans second. Both will be happy with that I think.

Wiggins will be happy he saved what could have been a disastrous two days.

 

[Ash]

Nibali in pink, Evans second just 29 seconds down. Positive news for Evans is that he was the fastest up that final ramp, ahead of Nibali, Scarponi and Wiggins. Steep short ramps tend to be what Evans excels at, though.

 

[Braveheart81]

Great first week from Evans.

He couldn't really hope to be in a better position right now. A few seconds closer to Nibali would be nice but it's certainly better being in second place than first at this point.

 

[Ash]

Yeah, definitely. I'm pleasantly surprised with how Evans is going. Nibali has to be the favourite currently, but Evans is with a shot. The back half of the Giro is very very hard, much harder than the TdF, but then that's the Giro for you. One off day for any rider could open things right up.

Last stage saw Hesjedal lose previous time, and Wiggins struggled again on the descents. Interestingly, Sky have now let their Columbians (Henao and Uran) by free men, whilst the rest of Sky tried to get Wiggins back on - which meant that Wiggins had to pretty much get himself back on.

Evans looked good tucked in behind Nibali. His team mates Santaromita and Morabito struggled, but held on. That's promising I think - this team that Evans has actually isn't too bad if Santaromita, Morabito and Cummings all can hold on when Evans needs help. The big shame is that Pinotti wasn't ready to also ride the Giro after his injuries.

Tonight is a rest today.

The second real test (after the first TT) will be on Tuesday night our time.

Here's what will the riders will be digesting Tuesday night our time:

Those two climbs are nasty, long things. Here's the first:

14.5k, but 2k of descents. A nasty 3k of over 10% at the start, then it eases off into a descent, followed by another 5km at over 10%. A nice first up offering, but it likely won't be ridden too hard.

And the next 22km behemoth:

The first 11km are little more than a false flat at 2.5%, but it starts to kick up. The key test will be at about 3.5km to go, where it kicks up again, reaching gradients up to 20%. If anyone of the key GC guys are going to make a move on this stage, it will likely be in this section.

What will most likely happen is that climbers who have already lost time like Di Luca, Samuel Sanchez, Duarte, maybe even Pozzovivo, will attack halfway and be given some lattitude by the GC guys who will mark each other, which means that one of these guys will take the stage. Alternatively, Astana may want to get rid of the pink jersey this early on in the Giro and let a breakaway go and get a huge lead. However, it would have to be a semi-decent climber as the next stage finishes up a Cat 2 climb, so more likely Astana will try to lose the Maglia Rosa the following day on stage 11, rather than stage 10.

Hopefully we don't have to endure the Sky train chugging to the top and we get to see a showdown between some GC guys.

 

[Ash]

Regarding the Maglia Rosa, I think that ideally the teams would want to take it back on stage 14 or stage 15 and then look to hold it to the end.

Stage 14, stage 15, stage 18 (mountain time trial), stage 19 (a short stage with three huge climbs making it very very hard), and stage 20 are all desicive for GC, ending in mountain top finishes. Stage 20 looks to be the queen stage of this Giro.

 

[Gibbo]

It will be interesting to see if Astana have the legs to defend with the cadence that worked so well for Sky last year. I don't think this SKY lineup is anything like last years. Wiggins has been dropped twice already