BIL Tour 2013: Wallaby Squad Strategy & Plans

[RedsHappy]

Some of us were intrigued to read just this week that the ARU has decided - on economic viability grounds - to prune the number of contracted Wallabies back to 32 only. Then Nuci and RD will decide the $ size of each player's contract within that quota. None of this seemed to attract too much commentary.

I think it's worth a bit of GAGR review of this matter. Why?

IMO, the once-every-12-years BIL tour in 2013 is arguably more important in total for the promotion and viability of Australian rugby than any offshore RWC.

First, the considerable $ income, or income potential, of the extensive Aus-wide tour is preserved locally at both State RU and ARU levels. Packed stadia should be expected.

Second, the many games involved will include both a number of State franchises and the Wallabies. And this feeds down to local code enthusiasm and promotion at Australian Grade, Club and school levels, etc.

Third, it's my hypothesis that everyday Aussie winter sports fans will be more attracted to the us v Pommies (a la Ashes) theme in all this than some far away us v Canada and multiple other teams in a comp that takes 7 weeks to complete and is not in the same TZ. Plus, no other football code delivers (inside Australia) anything like this internationally based, gladiatorial spectacle of old world v new world rivalry.

Four, as above the games are in Aus TZs, and the same one for the whole East Coast market.

Summarily, if the BIL tour is promoted well by all the RUs, and especially the ARU, this tour should be an exciting, continuous, and economically lucrative showcase for the very best of Australian rugby, and for the quality of the code itself. It should draw consistently good crowds and viewerships. It should attract great publicity. A tour win by the Wallabies and by one or two franchises could be precisely the boost the game badly needs here. Inversely, a series of weak performances and a Tour loss would 'not be at all desirable' for the code's best course forward in Aus.

When the ARU Board decided that it was optimal that JO'N and RD simultaneously stayed in place through 2013, the BIL tour was mentioned by JO'N as a key factor in that thinking.

Let's juxtapose the above - and some may disagree with my assessment - with the decision to head into this fantastic rugby sweet-store with a contracted Wallaby squad of 32 players only, essentially a buffer of 10 over a match day 22. The BIL tour - 9 matches all up - will somehow sit in the middle of the 2013 S15, and the injury position from the pre-tour S15 will carry into the tour and back into the late stage S15. And let's remember the RWC 2011 injury situation, as it unfolded.

Our S15 teams today are struggling to make good performances within the 30 player constraint rule. Any 'non 32' potential Wallabies this year and next will not have the benefit of training and technical support within the Wallaby system for the crucial BIL tour. What will happen to the, say, 10-15 players just outside that tight 32. Will they stay motivated?

Seems an important topic, if you agree with me the re the BIL upcoming. 32 squad members seems way low to me. What are your thoughts rugby comrades, both re squad sizing, but equally squad and national planning generally for this fantastic opportunity in code promotion?

 

[Hawko]

I thought that when the decision was made to limit Super squads to 30+5 that it was diabolically wrong. It seems that the franchises basically just ignored the idea by having players join the squad and train who were not paid. Lousy outcome if you haven't got a contract or a sugar-daddy, but there are a lot of guys out there who would do anything to make their dreams come true.

It won't work like that at the Wallaby level, where the players to be drawn in will be Super contracted players. Players outside the 32 will only be on Super contracts and the money for these is being throttled back. So the financial incentives to go to France suddenly become much bigger. If you're young and haven't been sevens-selected then a life in Japan also has a World Cup at the end of seven years. Everywhere is looking better than the Wallaby route unless you are one of the golden 32.

Take just one example. Dan Palmer is the best scrummaging THP in Australia (with Kepu and Maafu next best). But he won't EVER be selected by Deans because Deans wants props who play like 6's. So he will only ever get one of the shrinking Super contracts. But in Europe he will get big bucks, residential quals after a few years and a chance to set himself up for life. Ditto Japan where, after qualifying, he would be the first name put on Eddie's teamsheet. Why on earth would he stay? A few Brumbies jerseys on the shelf when he's 35 and back doing debt collecting is just not going to cut it.

The BIL tour is going to result in a lot of matches, not just the three tests. There will be the Super rugby and 4N tournament too. That will mean lots of injuries - see last year for Waratahs and WC squad for the results. With fringe players heading north because the money has dried up and older, more injury-prone players needing to play less games there will be a lot of people outside the 32 getting Wallaby jerseys and a lot of people playing Super rugby who won't be all that good.

Its not good for the game at all. I suspect that immediately after the Lions tour the purse strings will be opened again as an (entirely predictable) consequence of our poor performance and loss of most games. Then two years later we have an away WC and reduced money and we will slam the door shut on the treasury once again.

There needs to be a plan to break out of the cycle and to fund the game at a higher level overall. We need to grow more interest at the grass-roots level in more than just the wealthy private schools. There needs to be vision and a love for the game at the Board level, not accountants. Don't get me wrong, you have to have accountants but they make lousy CEO's because their whole way of thinking is predicated on looking at the numbers that are, not what the numbers could be. They don't do the vision thing.

 

[Brumbieman]

We're not going to win it with Dingo in charge.

 

[disco]

Yeah Dingo will fuck things up. Who's coaching the Lions?

 

[RedsHappy]

I thought that when the decision was made to limit Super squads to 30+5 that it was diabolically wrong. It seems that the franchises basically just ignored the idea by having players join the squad and train who were not paid. Lousy outcome if you haven't got a contract or a sugar-daddy, but there are a lot of guys out there who would do anything to make their dreams come true.

It won't work like that at the Wallaby level, where the players to be drawn in will be Super contracted players. Players outside the 32 will only be on Super contracts and the money for these is being throttled back. So the financial incentives to go to France suddenly become much bigger. If you're young and haven't been sevens-selected then a life in Japan also has a World Cup at the end of seven years. Everywhere is looking better than the Wallaby route unless you are one of the golden 32.

Take just one example. Dan Palmer is the best scrummaging THP in Australia (with Kepu and Maafu next best). But he won't EVER be selected by Deans because Deans wants props who play like 6's. So he will only ever get one of the shrinking Super contracts. But in Europe he will get big bucks, residential quals after a few years and a chance to set himself up for life. Ditto Japan where, after qualifying, he would be the first name put on Eddie's teamsheet. Why on earth would he stay? A few Brumbies jerseys on the shelf when he's 35 and back doing debt collecting is just not going to cut it.

The BIL tour is going to result in a lot of matches, not just the three tests. There will be the Super rugby and 4N tournament too. That will mean lots of injuries - see last year for Waratahs and WC squad for the results. With fringe players heading north because the money has dried up and older, more injury-prone players needing to play less games there will be a lot of people outside the 32 getting Wallaby jerseys and a lot of people playing Super rugby who won't be all that good.

Its not good for the game at all. I suspect that immediately after the Lions tour the purse strings will be opened again as an (entirely predictable) consequence of our poor performance and loss of most games. Then two years later we have an away WC and reduced money and we will slam the door shut on the treasury once again.

There needs to be a plan to break out of the cycle and to fund the game at a higher level overall. We need to grow more interest at the grass-roots level in more than just the wealthy private schools. There needs to be vision and a love for the game at the Board level, not accountants. Don't get me wrong, you have to have accountants but they make lousy CEO's because their whole way of thinking is predicated on looking at the numbers that are, not what the numbers could be. They don't do the vision thing.

Some great points in there Hawko, IMO.

Yesterday, I got to thinking this: The QRU has just repaid - 2 years early - some $2m-$3m cash to the ARU. That's clearly a sum the ARU didn't plan to have back until (hopefully) 2014.

Now, you and I share a firm view that we probably need, starting in June 2012, a solid Wallaby squad of 40 players minimum, not 32, to prepare adequately and build for 2013 and the Lions tour (let alone JON's stated goal of winning the Bled this year and becoming world No 1!, let's not forget those aspirations, his words not ours!).

So, given the critical opportunity offered to the ARU to really promote Aus rugby and Aus winning rugby next year, why not recycle some of the 'unexpected' back-from-QRU $ms cash into a program tailored to maximising our chances to win a Bled and the BIL in 2013. Wouldn't such recycling make massive sense for, using your good words, building 'what the numbers could be, not what they are'? The obvious use for some of that cash is the right 40 or 40+ squad and the right specialist coaches and programs to rapidly rebuild the Wallabies' skill base, as, for example, Blake has done with defence.

As the QRU has so aptly shown, there is a massive $ income difference between stadia 60-70% full and stadia 99% full. I would even say: if we need the income $s badly, increase the ticket prices materially for the BIL for 80% of the tickets BUT be sure we have the calibre and quantity of squad to put on an outstanding show for the fans, of all types.

With the right marketing, squad development and coaching excellence, an extra $1m+ spent in 2012/3 will surely repay itself, partly in maximised gate and sponsorship $s for 2013, but importantly in significant incremental $ flow on into 2014 etc based upon a beautiful glow around rugby if we perform superbly in 2013 (just as the QRU was able to lift Reds 2012 membership of 15,000 in 2011 to 30,000 in 2012, purely on the 2011 glow factor, this is precisely how you build income in a sports code).

 

[jay-c]

just as imortant i belive that with the strength of the aussie dollar vs poor pound ie- the decrease in travellers from england (general tourism and ashes), the tourists are less likely to spend the big bucks the kiwis tried to score by overpricing their hotels
measures need to be taken to ensure it doesnt become an economic disaster>

 

[Swarley]

The BIL tour - 9 matches all up - will somehow sit in the middle of the 2013 S15, and the injury position from the pre-tour S15 will carry into the tour and back into the late stage S15. And let's remember the RWC 2011 injury situation, as it unfolded.

Our S15 teams today are struggling to make good performances within the 30 player constraint rule. Any 'non 32' potential Wallabies this year and next will not have the benefit of training and technical support within the Wallaby system for the crucial BIL tour. What will happen to the, say, 10-15 players just outside that tight 32. Will they stay motivated?

Seems an important topic, if you agree with me the re the BIL upcoming. 32 squad members seems way low to me. What are your thoughts rugby comrades, both re squad sizing, but equally squad and national planning generally for this fantastic opportunity in code promotion?

This worries me. There's only three tests but a lot of back-up Wallabies will be playing for the five Super Rugby franchises (all before the 2nd Test and 4 before the 1st). Luckily, however, our depth has started to increase slowly but steadily over the past few seasons. This doesn't necessarily apply only to capped Wallabies- players like Vaea, Dennis, Mowen, Gill, Hooper, White etc. are all coming along well and look to be stars of the future.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant number of yet-uncapped Wallabies feature in the squad. The likes of the aforementioned players will appear both in the extended squad and the match-day 22s. Of the following possible squad, I think the players in bold will be definitely included (injury permitting) and the others are possibles.

Hookers: Stephen Moore, Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Hanson, Nathan Charles, Saia Fainga'a, Ged Robinson
Props: Benn Robinson, James Slipper, Sekope Kepu, Ben Alexander, Pek Cowan, Salesi Ma'afu, Laurie Weeks, Greg Holmes
Locks: James Horwill, Rob Simmons, Hugh Pyle, Dan Vickerman, Sam Carter, Dean Mumm, Sitaleki Timani, Peter Kimlin
Blindsides: Dave Dennis, Scott Higginbotham, Rocky Elsom, Matt Hodgson,
Opensides: David Pocock, Liam Gill, Michael Hooper, Beau Robinson
Number Eights: Wycliff Palu, Ben Mowen, Ita Vaea, Jake Schatz, Ben McCalman
Scrumhalves: Will Genia, Nic White, Ben Lucas, Richard Kingi
Fly-halves: Berrick Barnes, Quade Cooper, Christian Lealiifano
Centres: Ben Tapuai, Rob Horne, Anthony Fainga'a
Wingers: Digby Ioane, Drew Mitchell, Lachie Turner, Aidan Toua, Nick Cummins, Dom Shipperly
Fullbacks: Kurtley Beale
Utilities: James O'Connor, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Pat McCabe

 

[Slim 293]

There's a lot of names there Swarley...

By the time the BIL tour comes around JON will have reduced Wallaby contracts to a mere 22 players...

 

[vidiot]

And once you count CRocky and quasi-retired Vickerman the wallabies bench will be wearing suits.

 

[liquor box]

There's a lot of names there Swarley...

By the time the BIL tour comes around JON will have reduced Wallaby contracts to a mere 22 players...

or a return to amateur days, just contract 21 and let one guy not get paid for the game

 

[RedsHappy]

This worries me. There's only three tests but a lot of back-up Wallabies will be playing for the five Super Rugby franchises (all before the 2nd Test and 4 before the 1st). Luckily, however, our depth has started to increase slowly but steadily over the past few seasons. This doesn't necessarily apply only to capped Wallabies- players like Vaea, Dennis, Mowen, Gill, Hooper, White etc. are all coming along well and look to be stars of the future.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant number of yet-uncapped Wallabies feature in the squad. The likes of the aforementioned players will appear both in the extended squad and the match-day 22s. Of the following possible squad, I think the players in bold will be definitely included (injury permitting) and the others are possibles.

Hookers: Stephen Moore, Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Hanson, Nathan Charles, Saia Fainga'a, Ged Robinson
Props: Benn Robinson, James Slipper, Sekope Kepu, Ben Alexander, Pek Cowan, Salesi Ma'afu, Laurie Weeks, Greg Holmes
Locks: James Horwill, Rob Simmons, Hugh Pyle, Dan Vickerman, Sam Carter, Dean Mumm, Sitaleki Timani, Peter Kimlin
Blindsides: Dave Dennis, Scott Higginbotham, Rocky Elsom, Matt Hodgson,
Opensides: David Pocock, Liam Gill, Michael Hooper, Beau Robinson
Number Eights: Wycliff Palu, Ben Mowen, Ita Vaea, Jake Schatz, Ben McCalman
Scrumhalves: Will Genia, Nic White, Ben Lucas, Richard Kingi
Fly-halves: Berrick Barnes, Quade Cooper, Christian Lealiifano
Centres: Ben Tapuai, Rob Horne, Anthony Fainga'a
Wingers: Digby Ioane, Drew Mitchell, Lachie Turner, Aidan Toua, Nick Cummins, Dom Shipperly
Fullbacks: Kurtley Beale
Utilities: James O'Connor, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Pat McCabe

Swarley, yes, but. Note your emboldened players above number 22, a match day team. Now, the new ARU policy permits 10 more players only in the 2012 and 2013 Wallaby squad(s). There are 12 player type lines above. To get to 32 players, we can only choose 1 more player from each of only 10 of those lines, 2 lines (whichever they may be) logically get no more players allocated from them. How this is anything approaching adequate injury and player quality and game-to-game performance and selection flexibility depth is beyond me, especially as we are heading in to a period when (a) we have the hugely strategically important BIL tour and (b) JO"N has declared that we must this year win a Bled and aspire to get to a No 1 IRB rank. Go figure.

 

[RedsHappy]

"Brumbies seek ARU Extension on Mogg".

Btw, this emerging issue re status and use of the EPS highlights the total squad sizes that Aus S15 franchises are finding they need, and we are at just Rnd 7 of the S15:

http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/union-news/brumbies-seek-aru-extension-on-mogg-20120406-1whd1.html

 

[liquor box]

Swarley, yes, but. Note your emboldened players above number 22, a match day team. Now, the new ARU policy permits 10 more players only in the 2012 and 2013 Wallaby squad(s). There are 12 player type lines above. To get to 32 players, we can only choose 1 more player from each of only 10 of those lines, 2 lines (whichever they may be) logically get no more players allocated from them. How this is anything approaching adequate injury and player quality and game-to-game performance and selection flexibility depth is beyond me, especially as we are heading in to a period when (a) we have the hugely strategically important BIL tour and (b) JO"N has declared that we must this year win a Bled and aspire to get to a No 1 IRB rank. Go figure.

The rediculous part of that is some lines need more that 2 extra, I dont want to upset fans of the backline, but surely we need at least 2THP, 2 LHP (or 4 who can do both), 2 Hookers, 2 opensides and 2 lineout winners. Sorry, no spare backs in my 10 extras! The only solution is to allow foreign based players to come home for Tests.

How many hookers were used last year? Was it 5??

 

[#1 Tah]

or a return to amateur days, just contract 21 and let one guy not get paid for the game

RUPA would have an absolute field day on that one.

 

[MrMouse]

RUPA would have an absolute field day on that one.

They don't seem to have gone to town on the current proposal, so I don't know about that.

In fact, AFAIK there's currently no collective bargaining agreement - it lapsed and there hasn't been a new one instituted. I think that RUPA (with the players' support) needs to threaten genuine action to stop this quite frankly ridiculous and short-sighted move. If there's no CBA with 40 ARU contracts guaranteed by June, the Wallaby players go on strike.

Easy, done.

The ARU can't afford to play hardball with RUPA if the players unite.

 

[Sully]

I have heard that the workers, united, can never be defeated. Not sure where.

 

[MrMouse]

I have heard that the workers, united, can never be defeated. Not sure where.

Classic.

 

[biggsy]

This worries me. There's only three tests but a lot of back-up Wallabies will be playing for the five Super Rugby franchises (all before the 2nd Test and 4 before the 1st). Luckily, however, our depth has started to increase slowly but steadily over the past few seasons. This doesn't necessarily apply only to capped Wallabies- players like Vaea, Dennis, Mowen, Gill, Hooper, White etc. are all coming along well and look to be stars of the future.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant number of yet-uncapped Wallabies feature in the squad. The likes of the aforementioned players will appear both in the extended squad and the match-day 22s. Of the following possible squad, I think the players in bold will be definitely included (injury permitting) and the others are possibles.

Hookers: Stephen Moore, Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Hanson, Nathan Charles, Saia Fainga'a, Ged Robinson
Props: Benn Robinson, James Slipper, Sekope Kepu, Ben Alexander, Pek Cowan, Salesi Ma'afu, Laurie Weeks, Greg Holmes
Locks: James Horwill, Rob Simmons, Hugh Pyle, Dan Vickerman, Sam Carter, Dean Mumm, Sitaleki Timani, Peter Kimlin
Blindsides: Dave Dennis, Scott Higginbotham, Rocky Elsom, Matt Hodgson,
Opensides: David Pocock, Liam Gill, Michael Hooper, Beau Robinson
Number Eights: Wycliff Palu, Ben Mowen, Ita Vaea, Jake Schatz, Ben McCalman
Scrumhalves: Will Genia, Nic White, Ben Lucas, Richard Kingi
Fly-halves: Berrick Barnes, Quade Cooper, Christian Lealiifano
Centres: Ben Tapuai, Rob Horne, Anthony Fainga'a
Wingers: Digby Ioane, Drew Mitchell, Lachie Turner, Aidan Toua, Nick Cummins, Dom Shipperly
Fullbacks: Kurtley Beale
Utilities: James O'Connor, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Pat McCabe

To many Qld players ,ex qld player or qld school boys that play for other Aus teams in that team. The ARU and Dingo Deans won't go for that.
Not enough Tah's in there.
If that team played through the world cup we would have won or at least came 2nd. TPN is far from a Wallaby,

Genia,cooper,Barnes would work well. Never got to see that thanks to Dean's his interchanges in the last 8min of bug games.

 

[vidiot]

Biggsy, it is always enjoyable to read your posts.

1. I appreciate a stream-of-consciousness that is a little more Queensland than Bjelke-Petersen.
2. I also enjoy reading your posts backwards. I find it adds a much needed challenge missing in the posted content, and is often more coherent.

But.

TPN has 32 test caps, and that makes him a Wallaby.

 

[MrMouse]

To many Qld players ,ex qld player or qld school boys that play for other Aus teams in that team. The ARU and Dingo Deans won't go for that.
Not enough Tah's in there.
If that team played through the world cup we would have won or at least came 2nd. TPN is far from a Wallaby,

Genia,cooper,Barnes would work well. Never got to see that thanks to Dean's his interchanges in the last 8min of bug games.

QLD count:
Hookers: Stephen Moore, Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Hanson, Nathan Charles, Saia Fainga'a, Ged Robinson
Props: Benn Robinson, James Slipper, Sekope Kepu, Ben Alexander, Pek Cowan, Salesi Ma'afu, Laurie Weeks, Greg Holmes
Locks: James Horwill, Rob Simmons, Hugh Pyle, Dan Vickerman, Sam Carter, Dean Mumm, Sitaleki Timani, Peter Kimlin
Blindsides: Dave Dennis, Scott Higginbotham, Rocky Elsom, Matt Hodgson,
Opensides: David Pocock, Liam Gill, Michael Hooper, Beau Robinson
Number Eights: Wycliff Palu, Ben Mowen, Ita Vaea, Jake Schatz, Ben McCalman
Scrumhalves: Will Genia, Nic White, Ben Lucas, Richard Kingi
Fly-halves: Berrick Barnes, Quade Cooper, Christian Lealiifano
Centres: Ben Tapuai, Rob Horne, Anthony Fainga'a
Wingers: Digby Ioane, Drew Mitchell, Lachie Turner, Aidan Toua, Nick Cummins, Dom Shipperly
Fullbacks: Kurtley Beale
Utilities: James O'Connor, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Pat McCabe

So far as I can tell, 23 24 players who do, have or might-possibly-have-if-things-had-been-different. Out of 55. Not such a heavy proportion, really, and Aidan Toua has been plucked from the clouds, too.

You know, I reckon if that team had played we might have had a shot, what with having more than double the players of the Irish and ABs