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Brumbies (3rd) v Sharks (6th) - Super Rugby 2019 QF 4

RoffsChoice

Jim Lenehan (48)
QF clash between two of the three teams to have lost four finals.

Brumbies (10 wins, 6 losses):
The Brumbies have a 90% win rate in their last ten games at home, their last five on the bounce, and have won 75% of all their finals at home.

The Brumbies have scored the second-most tries this season despite having the second-fewest clean breaks, the least carries, the fewest metres made, the fewest defenders beaten, the fewest 7+ phases, and the fewest offloads thrown. Because they have only kicked three penalties this year, they are only sixth in overall points despite their number of tries scored.

You might think their low possession means they're kicking the ball away a lot, but they have kicked the ball the second-fewest number of times. They have made the third-most tackles, though only the Waratahs have made as many tackles with a higher tackle success rate.

So how do the Brumbies succeed? Because they've made the third-fewest handling errors in the competition, they have conceded the second-fewest turnovers, and have conceded the third-fewest penalty goals despite giving away the fourth-most penalties. Their set piece is one of the (if not the) best in the competition, they make their tackles, they don't drop the ball. That's a tough set of skills to beat.

Sharks (7 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses):
The Sharks have a 60% win rate outside South Africa this season, which is higher than their in-nation win rate of 44%. This team has won as many finals games on the road as they have at home, which sounds impressive until you realise that they have played fourteen finals games away and only four at home, for only six wins.

This Sharks team is hard to understand. They have scored the second-fewest points in the competition and the third-fewest tries, only better than the abysmal Sunwolves and Stormers. They're middle of the pack for run metres despite having the third-most 7+ phases, in no small part due to having the fourth-fewest defenders beaten and linebreaks. They're middle of the pack for kicking metres despite kicking more than 60% of all other teams.

They miss one in every seven tackles they attempt, and yet they have conceded the fewest linebreaks and have the best success rate of keeping the opposition behind the advantage line.

This team has no style, per se. They use a rush defence which can often be successful, but teams getting through or around them can blow them away. They never threaten the opposition set piece, and they concede quite a few set pieces.

Prediction:
This will likely be a game for the purists, with the first defensive system to break being the team to lose. Brumbies by more than a score.
 

LearningCurve

Bill Watson (15)
How have the Sharks qualified? Based on your summary they sound rubbish, so what have they been doing well? I expect the Brumbies to win this.
 

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Sharks have just done Buenos Aires to Cape Town & now have to get to Jo'burg, fly to Sydney via God knows then down to Canberra. I suspect they'll run out of gas at some point. Brums by 10ish.
 

RoffsChoice

Jim Lenehan (48)
How have the Sharks qualified? Based on your summary they sound rubbish, so what have they been doing well? I expect the Brumbies to win this.

TL;DR: Top four teams are very good this year, making it easier for bad teams to make the finals.

Shorkies got the second-most BPs this season, and got at least one point out of all but four of their games. The only teams to do better at this are the three conference champions and the Highlanders, who also managed to sneak in with a losing record (only six wins!). Without this, the Lions would have finished above them with an even record.

Having three teams with a losing record in the finals comes mostly from a very competitive finals race (only two wins between 2nd last and 8th) and a high number of win in the top four (~40% of all wins were among the top four teams), so there was an average of only six (!!!) wins among the teams from 5th to 15th. That means that getting seven wins makes you an above-average team in the race for 5th-8th, and it's telling that only one of the four travelling teams in the QFs has a winning record.
 

Brumby Jack

Steve Williams (59)
Staff member
BREAKING:
Capture.JPG


Sharks may as well not even bother to show up now....
 

RoffsChoice

Jim Lenehan (48)
Sharks are travelling without Philip van der Walt, Beast Mtawarira, and Jean-Luc du Preez. Not too much of a shock: vdWalt hasn't been involved since he was forced off just after half time against the Lions, Jean-Luc missed the last two games of the season, and we haven't seen Beast since April. Good news for the Brumbies, though.
 

RoffsChoice

Jim Lenehan (48)
Not great but then again we shouldn't be letting this game get to the point where it's decided by shitty ref calls.
 

RoffsChoice

Jim Lenehan (48)
Hearing some whispers of what the lineup will be:
  1. James Slipper
  2. Folau Fainga'a
  3. Allan Ala'alatoa
  4. Rory Arnold
  5. Sam Carter
  6. Tom Cusack
  7. Jahrome Brown
  8. Lachlan McCaffrey
  9. Joe Powell
  10. Christian Lealiifano
  11. Toni Pulu
  12. Irae Simone
  13. Tevita Kuridrani
  14. Andy Muirhead
  15. Tom Banks
Subs: McInerney, Sio, Makin, Swain, Douglas, Lucas, Wright, Ikitau
 

Brumby Runner

David Wilson (68)
I would prefer to see Valetini at 6 and Samu at 7. but at the very least one, if not both, on the bench in a 6-2 configuration. Too good to miss out altogether.

EDIT : Don't mean to denigrate Cusack or Brown in any way. They will do the job, but Valetini and Samu would be my personal preferences.
 

cyclopath

George Smith (75)
Staff member
Hearing some whispers of what the lineup will be:
  1. James Slipper
  2. Folau Fainga'a
  3. Allan Ala'alatoa
  4. Rory Arnold
  5. Sam Carter
  6. Tom Cusack
  7. Jahrome Brown
  8. Lachlan McCaffrey
  9. Joe Powell
  10. Christian Lealiifano
  11. Toni Pulu
  12. Irae Simone
  13. Tevita Kuridrani
  14. Andy Muirhead
  15. Tom Banks
Subs: McInerney, Sio, Makin, Swain, Douglas, Lucas, Wright, Ikitau
You need to adjust the frequency on your whisperer! ;)
 

Froggy

John Solomon (38)
Not the side I would start, but a good side.
For mine Slipper would start over Sio, and I'm a big McCaffrey fan. Would probably start him at 6, play Valetini at 8 and Samu at 7 with Cusack on the bench.
 
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