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COVID-19 Stuff Here

Discussion in 'Everything Else' started by dru, Mar 16, 2020.

  1. dru Andrew Slack (58)

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    cyclopath - given your medical background, what have been your thoughts here? In the digging around I have been doing (I am a science nut and back studying for my sins):

    x It seems a good chance that a vaccine will eventuate but 12 to 18 months.
    x It seems that social distancing and isolation measures have not contained the spread and will not, but will slow things down.
    x Summer is anticipated to dampen transmission and virus survival, but in Australia ALL of our CV-19 cases have been in summer or the summer season shoulder. So we can expect an upswing through winter, though social distancing will hopefully moderate this.
    x Given that social isolation controls are simply slowing things down, these controls are not likely to be removed prior to the vaccine being available and implemented in Australia
    x At best that means the same measures in place right now, are in place end march 2021 and maybe through to september 2021

    We are talking two seasons of rugby if the above is close to the mark.
  2. WorkingClassRugger Andrew Slack (58)

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    I think a lot will rely on a combination of factors. I posted an article from the Washington Post relating to modelling of a virus that for the purpose of the exercise was set to be twice as contagious as Covid-19 which demonstrates the differing levels of infection rate and peak depending on which option is taken. All completely randomised on each refresh.

    It shows that intensive social distancing (where only 1 in 8 actors are able to move freely amongst the population) had the best long term outcome. With moderate (where it's 1 in 4) being the second and probably the closest to what we're supposed to be at least trying to achieve. That's one.

    Another is of course the vaccine. I've mentioned previously but there's two Canadian groups who believe they have strong candidates. The Universoty of Sasketchewan and an Ottawa City based Biotech company. There's also a German company CureVac that's supposedly very close and which has been the centre of some international contention with Trump trying to buy exclusive rights to the vaccine. Apparently, both the Ottawa based company and CureVac assuming everything goes right can have their vaccine in full production as a rate of tens of millions of vials per month by November. But that's a pretty big if.

    Another factor is the current trials of a number of anit-virals. Chloquine as cyclo helped clarify has shown some solid results as has a variant in South Korea and Japan. Apparently U of Queensland have started trials on two more apparently safe anti-virials as well and the Dutch are talking about an anti-body that they've found that's showing promise.

    If all of these factors work out in which form or product then we might see a proper season next year. We may even get very lucky and the the November tours. But a lot will need to go right first.
  3. Samson Herbert Moran (7)

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    I read last week that a company in Texas has a vaccine ready to test. it is the same company that developed the vaccine for the Saudi Flu. Under normal circumstances the vaccine would not be ready for human use until end of first quarter 2021 but the CEO says under pandemic conditions it can be fast tracked. I also read that an Israeli company expects to have one within 90 days and Iran has said it is okay for Iranians to use it. Hopefully one of these eventuates in the near future.
  4. RedsHappy Tony Shaw (54)

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    Just an aside dru, and not arguing with anything above, IMO what has been seriously under-analysed and under-commented upon in all these debates is this: no 2020-dated society can economically afford mass populations' lock-ins and lock-downs for long.

    The economic consequences of truly massive reductions in societal economic demand and related employment-preserving activity over extended periods (eg longer than say 6-8 weeks) of near-total country-wide lock-downs will be depression-level in their consequences, not recession-level. There would be mass insolvencies both major and minor and mass unemployment resulting. No govt stimulus would be able to compensate. In such scenarios mass bankrupted families with no or little money for food and rent may politically come to be considered a lesser evil than many families suffering various levels of COVOD-19.

    There may therefore come a reckoning time of great strategic and societal significance whereby the complex and tortuous trade offs between extended health and virus-free maximisation and potential extended economic devastation have to be faced head-on. Societies make these de facto calculations and trade-off all the time in many areas, we just don't realise or see them explicitly. It could well be that, this time, we will all be faced with the public policy choices of a lifetime.
    dru likes this.
  5. Derpus Andrew Slack (58)

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    I don't think the current measures are sustainable for more than a few weeks without catastrophic financial collapse. You just can't have closed borders and closed businesses for that long.

    They'll have to find a balance between restricting the rate of infection and not letting society collapse.
    The_Brown_Hornet and RedsHappy like this.
  6. RedsHappy Tony Shaw (54)

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    As you can see, generally I agree. It's just that no one wants to see or talk about these trade-offs just yet. We (social media having a vast impact) think the only issue right now is public health, not total societal well-being in the aggregate of all the many factors that create and support that well-being.
  7. WorkingClassRugger Andrew Slack (58)

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    You're assuming that much of the economy would automatically stop if a lockdown were to ensue. Which isn't the case. A great number of jobs can be performed remotely. My brother's offce has been closed for 10 days now with him having been working from home for the past fortnight. My sister who has actually just got a new job and is starting Wednesday has already been asked if she's willing to work from home. And she works in international frieght and logistics. I've already been asked to limit my social interation by work as I'm seen as an essential part of the continued ops. at my place of emplyoment. My company moves a lot of the base goods that will be needed to maintain stocks in supermarkets and pharmacies in light of a lockdown.

    There will be significant financial strain. We will be in a deep recession fairly soon (which has been on the horizon for some time prior to the crisis) . But society won't collapse. And frankly. I for one believe that in a scenario where we have to balance economics against lives. I choose lives. Economies can be rebuilt. Lives cannot.
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  8. Derpus Andrew Slack (58)

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    I guess we'll see. I'm working from home as well, and many tertiary jobs will be fine.

    The issue will be in primary and secondary industries. China's manufacturing industry has already taken a massive hit because they can't export their products anywhere. Our economy is heavily reliant on exporting products, etc.

    I was obviously being a bit hyperbolic about 'society collapsing' but a serious financial collapse can cause as much damage as a major public health crisis. It's a very delicate issue and I'm glad not to be making the decisions.
  9. Finsbury Girl Vay Wilson (31)

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    From what I have seen the vast majority of peeps will have caught it and recovered within a couple of weeks.

    Whether or not the immunity is for life as with other viruses is yet to be determined. If so then we are all good, the "herd immunity" will kick in life can go on as normal.

    Yes on the edges of the distribution curve there will be dramatic impact however again that will happen quite quickly.
  10. WorkingClassRugger Andrew Slack (58)

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    I can almost guarantee most of the major export/importi ndustries have already been planning for a lockdown and have identified just how few people they need to maintain operations. At my work we ususally have 200 a shift. But we can maintain ops. with as few as 30 if need be. And all of the admin staff can work from home. This would be something a lot of those within these sectors would be looking at right now.

    Where it's going to hurt most if small business and contractors.
  11. RedsHappy Tony Shaw (54)

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    ^^^
    THE issue not 'where can work be done, at home or in tall buildings, so today it doesn't matter so much'.

    THE issue is 'in aggregate and across the whole economy how much paid-for work is there to be done vs the amount of paid-for work essential to keep a certain level of national income and employment'.

    When the amount of total paid-for work shrinks - as is now starting to occur just in small doses but will soon get much larger - so businesses and employers generally have to cut costs and employment (typically a large cost), and one business' cost cut is soon another business' staff lay-off.

    And so the cycle works through as the total pattern of aggregated, income-earning and income-producing demand cascades downwards.
  12. WorkingClassRugger Andrew Slack (58)

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    That's the theory the likes of the UK are operating on. And it may be true. The issue is we have to be very careful in managing the spread of the virus as not to overload our resources in a very short period of time. Italy is really struggling thanks largely to that failure. They have a solid healthcare system in pretty every way except the ability to manage a huge influx of need for beds particularly those in ICU's that the outbreaks have seen. Which is translating in a 7% mortality rate. Compared to the Koreans who have done exactly what we should be. Who despite having recorded their first case at almost the same time as the Italians have kept it far more in check and seen a much lower mortality rate of 0.7%.
  13. Omar Comin' Chilla Wilson (44)

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    My understanding is that there are 4 other coronaviruses that are among those that cause the common cold. And they come back every year. Maybe this one will be different but I wouldn't bet on us having lifetime immunity. Not sure we can expect herd immunity until there is a vaccine, and like the flu there could be new strains each year that are different enough we need new and imperfect vaccines (hopefully not!).
  14. Finsbury Girl Vay Wilson (31)

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    ^ fingers crossed!
  15. dru Andrew Slack (58)

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    The common cold mutates, at this point advice seems to be that CV-19 is pretty stable.
  16. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    Herd immunity has never been achieved for something that doesn't have an effective vaccination. I'm unsure why countries like the UK and to a lesser extent Australia think that is going to achieve a successful outcome.

    This concept that the UK could operate as business as usual and let a significant portion of their population get the virus seems crazy. They are telling 70+ year olds to go into complete isolation but how does that actually work? What about the vast numbers that need some external support at a minimum. The aged care workers, carers and family members who are needed to help out won't be in isolation.

    I think this is going to be horrific and many are still largely oblivious to the disruption it will cause.

    It's clear that the economic fallout from a large-scale and long term shutdown is going to be awful and unemployment and insolvencies will rise massively but I'm not sure that it would be much better letting everyone get sick, having vast numbers of the population dying and hoping for the best.
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  17. RedsHappy Tony Shaw (54)

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    As a number of us here are commenting on potential vaccines and/or drugs for dealing with COVID-19, and it's all certainly relevant to a viable restart sometime for all rugby, this is potentially very good news from the University of QLD, re a potential combination of _existing_ drugs having major curative effects for those with this virus (sorry if paywalled for some):

    Coronavirus Australia: Queensland researchers find ‘cure’, want drug trial
    Some patients who tested positive for coronavirus in Australia have already been treated with one of the drugs and “all did very, very well,” researchers say.

    cyclopath likes this.
  18. Aurelius Ted Thorn (20)

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    boyo and formerflanker like this.
  19. Slim 293 George Gregan (70)

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    Great bants fellas...
  20. cyclopath Phil Waugh (73)

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    Saw an interview with the head of the team - close to commencing clinical trials - anti-malarial and an antiviral used in HIV (these mentioned earlier in thread) - and aiming at a comparative trial of Drug A v Drug B v Drug A&B from what I could tell.

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