COVID-19 Stuff Here

The number of deaths do not equal the number of new cases.
but as sure as night follows day, new cases means deaths will follow.

Yes, but how many?
The majority of the Australian population have a more than 99% chance of recovering if infected, and the symptoms for many will be minor.
As of today, there are 1,391 people infected, and only one patient is in a serious condition (i.e. zero percent).
In the closed cases category, 97% are recovered or discharged.
For this minor statistical situation, jobs have been permanently lost, businesses closed, our freedoms stripped from us, suicide is on the increase, education ruined especially for HSC students, and our national debt won't be repaid for 70 years.
The initial over-reaction may be defensible given the horrific stories seen around the world, but now the data is telling us to protect the elderly and open up everything else.

Suicide isn’t on the increase...

And in Victoria the numbers are down from last year.

Interestingly all-cause mortality has remained essentially unchanged in Australia since Jan-Feb 2020, while in nations hard hit by COVID such as the UK, France, and Italy suffered excess mortality beyond deaths caused by COVID. It's all well and good to talk about more chronic and non-COVID acute conditions not being treated, but this argument ignores the fact that these patients also go untreated when a pandemic goes unchecked. Hospitals become overwhelmed with actively dying, infective patients, and healthcare staff in all specialties are being brought in to manage these patients - many becoming patients theirselves. Also, bear in mind that patients with other conditions are far more susceptible to coronavirus.

The argument that we can just tolerate growing infection is logical dissonance. It appears to emphasise the (horrendous) costs of measures to limit infection, but then only seems to recognise the (horrendous) mortality directly caused by COVID infection, but not the econonic, social, and detriment to all other areas of health that result from an uncontrolled pandemic.

Honestly I think it's too soon to make a call on whether the public health responses of each jurisdiction have been more or less successful. Let's wait to see what a northern winter looks like, following their summer of heavily reduced restrictions, before we start riding our high horses.

6 cases yesterday in Vic and signals of a pivot in the approach to suppression. Good news imo.

There's an assumption in this that we could re-open everything, and people would just go back to normal. That's not the case. Even if the govt removed their restrictions, people will still be reticent to gather in large numbers, take public transport, invest in their businesses, etc. Sweden shows this too - few restrictions, but still massive economic disruption.

And how do you protect just the elderly and others who need care? Put all their carers in a bubble as well? Aged-care workers are often poorly paid, live in areas with higher COVID incidence, work across multiple homes, etc.

The 15 minute tests have sensitivity of about 50%, as far as I've seen, better than nothing, sure, but not great for protecting people if incidence in the community is high. What you're proposing is to further isolate the elderly and infirm - I feel OK with visiting my elderly parents currently, because I know the incidence in the community is so low, there's a very low risk that I'll pass it on to them. But if it was sweeping through the community, they would need to lock down and not see me or anyone potentially for months.

I don't want curfews and police pushing people off park benches either - I don't agree with approach that Victoria has taken. But that's not the only management option, as we've seen in NSW. But even with full autonomy, people won't go back to normal activity, so we can't pretend it would fix the economic problems.

Travel bubble off to a great start:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/trave...ined-in-melbourne/QYVSW6WUZVQ62HIWAP5UYOCVNI/

Gee, who'd have ever thunk someone would do this?

So great seeing the numbers coming out of Victoria. Such a needed reward after it stalled for a few weeks. Restrictions have to lift tomorrow or next week, if anything because people aren't abiding by them anyway - they're getting less and less effective.

Good work Vic, keep it up.

Border Force dropping the ball again...

^ bizzarely they don't seem to have actually done anything wrong by travelling to Melbourne but it does appear that upon returning to NSW they'll be required to quarantine for 14 days at their own expense before returning to NZ where they'll be required to quarantine for a further 14 days at their own expense.

It strikes me that someone somewhere didn't really think this "bubble" through & it wouldn't surprise me if Jacinda, once reconfirmed as PM in the next few days, moves to end it until this rather obvious flaw is addressed. Today being Election Day the pollies have all gone to ground lest they breach the Electoral Act but 100% had this happened earlier the shit would well & truly have hit the fan.

No cases, no deaths in NZ.
Swapped planes in Sydney.
Why on earth is there even a debate about what they did as long as the don't breach any laws whilst in Vic?

^ maybe because the bubble was meant to be between NZ & NSW/ ACT/ NT with no mention of Vic (where it's now being reported 55 kiwis ended up) or WA where 25 arrived despite the State border supposedly being closed.

Yeah if I can't go visit my family in WA or QLD from NSW, it's upsetting that Kiwis can.

Bizarre that Kiwis, living in essentially the "freest" community on earth, would choose to visit Melbourne at this point in time.

Hopefully it’s not because they are AFL fans

If you'd asked me to list the States kiwis would try to use NSW as a transit stop I'd have had Queensland top of the list but, no, it's Victoria, WA, Tassie & now SA. Or are there currently no flights from NSW to GC or BrisVegas?

Border closed between NSW and QLD so can’t get there (unless you go through the quarantine process).

I assume those going to Victoria were going home or to be with family.