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COVID-19 Stuff Here

Discussion in 'Everything Else' started by dru, Mar 16, 2020.

  1. Up the Guts Mark Ella (57)

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    The death rates in Italy are severely upwardly biased because they’re only testing those showing definite symptoms (in part because of the lack of testing). They’re also now reporting that there are those who go through the virus asymptomatic which also pushes up the death rates.

    Personally, I think the serious money that is pouring into vaccines/medications will see some positive results come out sooner than expected (that’s not an argument for complacency).
  2. Adam84 John Thornett (49)

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    Australia does targeted testing as well due to the limit of test kits, unless Australia drastically lifts the testing rate then we might see similar mortality rates
  3. Up the Guts Mark Ella (57)

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    Yep and same with the USA. Some communication of this to the general public without a basic statistics background might help ease some of the panic.
  4. cyclopath Stirling Mortlock (74)

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    Bear in mind, mortality rates from anything are meaningless without big enough numbers.
    The world-wide data is so messy, with disparate testing regimens, reporting, matching etc...
    I can't find it now, but there was a good table from Italy with the breakdown of the Italian numbers by age groups and sex; as well as the different rate of cases presenting in regions that managed lockdown differently, time and scope wise. Almost no-one under 50 dies (there) and men do worse than women. Lombardy is probably highly skewed by age distribution, as well as the slow pace of action early on.
    The only "constant" I'm seeing is the effect on early and widespread restrictions on movement / congregation etc...
    Which is why I strongly believe that schools and Unis should all be shutdown now. I know it will be hard to enact, but I think necessary.
    Just my 2c worth.
    boyo, Braveheart81 and Penguin like this.
  5. Up the Guts Mark Ella (57)

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    ^^^
    Yep that’s what I’m saying. Very hard to quantify mortality rates with small sample sizes and self-selection issues that cause numbers to be upwardly biased. That’s not to say we don’t enact sensible measures but sensible reporting should include a range of possible scenarios acknowledging issues with extrapolation.
    cyclopath likes this.
  6. WorkingClassRugger Steve Williams (59)

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    I'm hoping recent reports of two particular drugs that are returning results turn out to be true. I don't think a viable vaccine will be ready prior to the end of the year but if we can find a safe and reliable means to treat the illness that would help ease the crisis and most importantly save lives.
    Up the Guts likes this.
  7. Dan54 Steve Williams (59)

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    I not sure what mortality rates have got to with anything. By saying only 1% of those that get it are dying, and it similar to say flu , doen't make a lot of difference if 20% of the population get the flu for example and 75% get Corona virus, it still a bloody sight worse!! We never going to stop it, but I think they just trying to spread it out so everyone not getting it at same time, so over running hospitals etc!

    Well that's my admittedly uneducated view!
  8. WorkingClassRugger Steve Williams (59)

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    Umm...that's the point of flattening the curve. Spreading the number of infection over a much longer time frame in order to reduce the strain on the healthcare system.
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  9. dru Simon Poidevin (60)

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    People need to think about their news feeds. This one is for you in NSW.

    https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200316_02.aspx
    cyclopath likes this.
  10. WorkingClassRugger Steve Williams (59)

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    Interesting stats. Less than 1% of all tests conducted have returned a positive assuming that strictly for NSW. Would be amazing if that remained true. Though I doubt it .
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  11. cyclopath Stirling Mortlock (74)

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    False negative rate with the swab test currently used is not insignificant. Just another factor.
  12. Up the Guts Mark Ella (57)

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    Something like only 15 new cases reported in Wuhan today. Dramatic plateau since last month. Obviously, the lockdown worked but it could also be the case that there was significant undetected transmission (virus was relatively asymptomatic and therefore untested) and the wider population has developed a herd immunity.

    Could also be some dodgy stats coming out of Wuhan but evidence in SK also confirms a plateau (also, do we have a thread for this stuff, feels disconnected from RA)
  13. Finsbury Girl Bill McLean (32)

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    boyo likes this.
  14. Dan54 Steve Williams (59)

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    Yep I realise that mate, just why we have to stop sport etc, keep the curve flattened. I was just thinking (wrongly) that some were downplaying a bit how serious this is.
  15. cyclopath Stirling Mortlock (74)

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    My point was that we really don't know the mortality rate, due to the small sample sizes in many countries with respect to known positive cases, unknown positive cases (and by definition unknown recovered cases), with perhaps the only numbers that are kind of accurate being those known to have died from it. Mortality rate is relevant insofar as looking at the number of cases when we get a better idea of that figure. Even a mortality rate of 0.5% can be critical if enough get the disease in a short time, not so much if the cases are spread over 6-12 months.
    The critical number is how many will require hospitalisation, and more importantly, high-level (read ICU or equivalent) care. No country really has the capacity if they all went the way of Italy.
    Dan54 and Up the Guts like this.
  16. RebelYell Cyril Towers (30)

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    Austria have limited gatherings to 5 people.

    Even if Aus limited to 50, we can't play footy.
    Dan54 likes this.
  17. Dctarget Tony Shaw (54)

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    Answer is 7s baby.
  18. Dctarget Tony Shaw (54)

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    But seriously, this is not looking good. My work is yet to go remote - despite being incredibly easy to, it's bizarre that we haven't been placed on lockdown yet. we all need to stay home or we will see incredible casualties.
  19. Ignoto Peter Fenwicke (45)

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    Curious read about Patient 31. It makes you wonder whether we'll see any form of prosecution of people who willfully ignore medical advice and jeopardize the general public. Similar cases have been made for those who have unprotected sex and knowingly do so with a HIV diagnosis.
  20. cyclopath Stirling Mortlock (74)

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