Ignoto
John Thornett (49)
Cyclo, I mentioned this to my family members who are in a similar position. But, have you checked your income protection coverage (if you have it) to see if applies in this situation?
COVID-19 Stuff Here
- Thread starter dru
- Start date
Cyclo, I mentioned this to my family members who are in a similar position. But, have you checked your income protection coverage (if you have it) to see if applies in this situation?
Income protection insurance is one of the best scams ever. Policies pay out so infrequently because you need to earn NO income for 6 weeks before it kicks in. If you can do ANY work, it is of no use. I know this from bitter experience after a bad cycling accident 7 years ago. Only thing worse is "Practice Expenses" insurance, which is just a fiction.
boyo
Mark Ella (57)
Bigly
“America Is The Best At Coronavirus, It’s Incredible!”
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2020/0...ronavirus_it_s_incredible&utm_term=2020-03-29
“America Is The Best At Coronavirus, It’s Incredible!”
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2020/0...ronavirus_it_s_incredible&utm_term=2020-03-29
waiopehu oldboy
Stirling Mortlock (74)
^ not bad. This is also pretty good:
"Tasmania Shuts Itself Off From Rest Of World Which Is Real Surprise For Rest Of Us Who Assumed They Did This Years Ago"
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2020/03/20/tasmania-shuts-itself-off-from-rest-of-world/
"Tasmania Shuts Itself Off From Rest Of World Which Is Real Surprise For Rest Of Us Who Assumed They Did This Years Ago"
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2020/03/20/tasmania-shuts-itself-off-from-rest-of-world/
Pfitzy
George Gregan (70)
We have it wrapped up with our TPD/Life and so it is a fair whack of dosh for the both of us to pay out every month in case of a fairly remote-chance case. That's why it is called "insurance" I guess, but it is a lot of beer money.
Dctarget
John Eales (66)
Day 17 Scoreboard for Sunday 29th March (7:00pm data):
3,981 total Australian confirmed cases (166 less than the 4,147 we predicted yesterday using the old, out of date, exponential model).
344 new (510 predicted yesterday).
+9% single day increase.
TODAY THE CURVE FLATTENED SIGNIFICANTLY by -2%
+12% daily increase (rolling 3 day average)!
N.B - On Friday we earned our trio of Mitigation Flags yesterday by achieving a -1% or greater reduction in the 3 day average, for three out of four days.
This signaled the START of Phase 2: Mitigation on Day 13: 25th March.
Tomorrow we will switch away from the current Exponential Growth model to a new logistic or sigmoidal one, that factors in a daily reduction in our growth rate of cases.
We will also start to monitor “active cases” based on the sum of our new cases in the last 10 days (only). If we can reduce and maintain our confirmed case growth below 5% for 3 out of 4 consecutive days, this will signal we have entered Phase 3: Suppression.
While we’ve made some encouraging progress this week, we want to caution everyone against overconfidence or misrepresenting these results. A sharp increase in community transmission, increased testing rates or a broadening of the criteria to be eligible for testing could all result in a break-out from the current Mitigation trend, and a return to Exponential Growth phase. This would be signalled by three out of four days with an increase in the 3 day average growth of 1% or more (i.e. the reverse of our Mitigation flags).
Remember, our actions today will only show up in this data in 1 week’s time (at best). The next 7-10 days of confirmed infections are likely already beyond our control. This "inertia" is represented by the light blue coloured cells. If we were to shut down today and completely stop transmission we might (optimistically) hope for a peak of only 8,955 cases in 7 days’ time. The implementation of lockdown in most western countries has been much less effective, with the lag and inertia commonly being longer ( ~11 days in Hubei ). Lockdowns no matter how severe only succeed in reducing the rate of transmission, they don’t stop it in its tracks.
ICU Saturation Estimates:
As of the Day 12: 24th March update, we have revised our estimates of potential ICU saturation in Australia. The only change is the estimated % of cases that require an ICU bed. This is revised down from 10% of cases to 5%, in line with the work of Megan Higgie and Andrew Kahn (reference link below) and emerging anecdotal local ICU data. We are maintaining our assumption of 2,000 ICU beds being available to meet COVID19 demand, which already includes some of the new resources the government is fast tracking. This may be updated in future as more data comes to hand on these resources. This results in a new total case number of 40,000 (to avoid). The arrow and text are changed to purple to highlight this change.
NEW: Signals for Phases 1, 2 and 3
Our chosen “data condition” which will be used to signal departure from the current “Phase 1: Exponential Growth” and commencement of “Phase 2: Mitigation” (should it eventuate) is:
- At least 3 out of 4 consecutive days, where the 3 day average rate of growth reduces by at least 1% (to account for signal noise).
- If this signal is met, the commencement of Phase 2 will be backdated to the day of the first day of reduction in this series.
- A growth rate reduction target of -1% per day will be applied to all days beyond this point. This rate of reduction is likely overly optimistic, given data from other countries, but serves as a good benchmark for effective mitigation (recall Hubei averaged -1.5% per day drop in new case growth for 20 days under full government enforced lockdown, South Korea achieved similar).
- Maintenance of the Mitigation phase is never assured. A return to Exponential Growth phase would be signalled by three out of four days with an increase in the 3 day average growth of 1% or more (i.e. the reverse of our Mitigation flags).
Provisionally, bringing the 3 day average rate of growth of cases to less than 5% and maintaining it below that level for at least 3 out of 4 days will be used to signal the commencement of “Phase 3: Suppression” (should it eventuate). This phase will likely necessitate a change in data and analysis techniques, as yet TBC. Note South Korea still has a steady daily caseload at 1% new cases person.
3,981 total Australian confirmed cases (166 less than the 4,147 we predicted yesterday using the old, out of date, exponential model).
344 new (510 predicted yesterday).
+9% single day increase.
TODAY THE CURVE FLATTENED SIGNIFICANTLY by -2%
+12% daily increase (rolling 3 day average)!
N.B - On Friday we earned our trio of Mitigation Flags yesterday by achieving a -1% or greater reduction in the 3 day average, for three out of four days.
This signaled the START of Phase 2: Mitigation on Day 13: 25th March.
Tomorrow we will switch away from the current Exponential Growth model to a new logistic or sigmoidal one, that factors in a daily reduction in our growth rate of cases.
We will also start to monitor “active cases” based on the sum of our new cases in the last 10 days (only). If we can reduce and maintain our confirmed case growth below 5% for 3 out of 4 consecutive days, this will signal we have entered Phase 3: Suppression.
While we’ve made some encouraging progress this week, we want to caution everyone against overconfidence or misrepresenting these results. A sharp increase in community transmission, increased testing rates or a broadening of the criteria to be eligible for testing could all result in a break-out from the current Mitigation trend, and a return to Exponential Growth phase. This would be signalled by three out of four days with an increase in the 3 day average growth of 1% or more (i.e. the reverse of our Mitigation flags).
Remember, our actions today will only show up in this data in 1 week’s time (at best). The next 7-10 days of confirmed infections are likely already beyond our control. This "inertia" is represented by the light blue coloured cells. If we were to shut down today and completely stop transmission we might (optimistically) hope for a peak of only 8,955 cases in 7 days’ time. The implementation of lockdown in most western countries has been much less effective, with the lag and inertia commonly being longer ( ~11 days in Hubei ). Lockdowns no matter how severe only succeed in reducing the rate of transmission, they don’t stop it in its tracks.
ICU Saturation Estimates:
As of the Day 12: 24th March update, we have revised our estimates of potential ICU saturation in Australia. The only change is the estimated % of cases that require an ICU bed. This is revised down from 10% of cases to 5%, in line with the work of Megan Higgie and Andrew Kahn (reference link below) and emerging anecdotal local ICU data. We are maintaining our assumption of 2,000 ICU beds being available to meet COVID19 demand, which already includes some of the new resources the government is fast tracking. This may be updated in future as more data comes to hand on these resources. This results in a new total case number of 40,000 (to avoid). The arrow and text are changed to purple to highlight this change.
NEW: Signals for Phases 1, 2 and 3
Our chosen “data condition” which will be used to signal departure from the current “Phase 1: Exponential Growth” and commencement of “Phase 2: Mitigation” (should it eventuate) is:
- At least 3 out of 4 consecutive days, where the 3 day average rate of growth reduces by at least 1% (to account for signal noise).
- If this signal is met, the commencement of Phase 2 will be backdated to the day of the first day of reduction in this series.
- A growth rate reduction target of -1% per day will be applied to all days beyond this point. This rate of reduction is likely overly optimistic, given data from other countries, but serves as a good benchmark for effective mitigation (recall Hubei averaged -1.5% per day drop in new case growth for 20 days under full government enforced lockdown, South Korea achieved similar).
- Maintenance of the Mitigation phase is never assured. A return to Exponential Growth phase would be signalled by three out of four days with an increase in the 3 day average growth of 1% or more (i.e. the reverse of our Mitigation flags).
Provisionally, bringing the 3 day average rate of growth of cases to less than 5% and maintaining it below that level for at least 3 out of 4 days will be used to signal the commencement of “Phase 3: Suppression” (should it eventuate). This phase will likely necessitate a change in data and analysis techniques, as yet TBC. Note South Korea still has a steady daily caseload at 1% new cases person.
Garry Owens
Alan Cameron (40)
Thanks DC and thanks to your old Prof for this - really good stuff
Garry Owens
Alan Cameron (40)
A significant takeaway from the Deputy Chief Medical Officer’s interview on Channel 9 yesterday was that ICU beds have been provisioned / planned for to triple in capacity to 6,000 if required .
For example here in Brisbane the old RNA Showgrounds across the road from the RBWH would be brought on line as a significant makeshift facility
For example here in Brisbane the old RNA Showgrounds across the road from the RBWH would be brought on line as a significant makeshift facility
Pfitzy
George Gregan (70)
Also plans going on in Melbourne:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/jef...d-19-hospital-and-morgue-20200326-p54eab.html
Ignoto
John Thornett (49)
Which is such an absurd notion when you think about it. Brisbane has St Andrew, Brisbane Private, the Mater, the Wesley and two day hospitals within 5 km's of the CBD. But rather than use them for either Covid or non-covid treatment, we'll just throw people into a temporary shed and effectively shut down those hospitals
Tex
Greg Davis (50)
C'mon mate, they've got to prepare for the doomsday scenario. 'non-covid' needs aren't going anywhere, and being able to centralise treatment of patients who are highly infectious but not requiring ICU care is a sane solution.
We don't want people shedding this c*nt of a virus turning up at facilities where cancer patients are getting chemo!
Ignoto
John Thornett (49)
You're right, so why are we not utilising the private hospitals to take all non-covid patients, both those in the private and public systems? That then completely frees up the public hospitals to be covid designated areas so vulnerable patients can be directed to a hospital that does not have any covid positive patients. The route they're going down mixes covid and non-covid at public hospitals.
That may happen if it becomes necessary, just like dumping some patients into hotels with a visiting nurse, it isn't yet
Tex
Greg Davis (50)
Another perspective, we have it so good
India would be top 3 places in the world I wouldn't want to be weathering this storm out. We're the lucky ones
Tex
Greg Davis (50)
I don't blame him. So densely populated, low literacy and health literacy, proven track record of social media being used to spread fear in the community, very little access to healthcare.