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COVID-19 Stuff Here

Discussion in 'Everything Else' started by dru, Mar 16, 2020.

  1. tragic Trevor Allan (34)

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    Unfortunately it’s a bit of sensationalism to chase funding. Important trial but it’s using existing drugs that were tried and seemed to have some benefit in China and Italy. Chloroquine (or hydroxychloroquine) is one. It might reduce the severity if given early but you can see from their mortality rates it’s probably not the magic bullet.
    It’s not unique to QLD. The same trials of the same drugs are being done overseas as well.
    cyclopath likes this.
  2. cyclopath Stirling Mortlock (74)

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    Indeed. The overseas data has been seen. But handy if some known drugs, with known risks established through long term previous use might help, even in a small way.
  3. tragic Trevor Allan (34)

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    Hoping that’s the reason for apparent reinfections
    Otherwise it’s going to be a long year
  4. cyclopath Stirling Mortlock (74)

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    It seems the more plausible reason. But we don't know.
    I'm an example - had mild symptoms late last week (sore throat, headache) and was supposed to operate the next day, decided to cancel list and self-isolate to be safe. Tested next morning, negative result 2 days later. Generally feel fine now. Throat still a bit sore but minor, no fever, no cough, no respiratory issues. At what point, when it gets a little worse, do I get tested again, bearing in mind they don't really want people getting tested many times (not enough tests)? Do I believe the test? It's difficult. I'm aware of the backlash against medicos who "put the public at risk". knowingly or otherwise. Plus, who wants to do that anyway?
    Then there is the "re-infection" v "not actually cleared" conundrum you mention above.
    Ultimately, a more accurate blood test will be key to better accuracy of data.
    Pfitzy and tragic like this.
  5. Up the Guts Mark Ella (57)

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    Is anyone else getting a lot of anecdotes about sore throats and cold symptoms? Cold going round my family the past week and others I know. Of course, any sign of a cold is being brought up as a topic of conversation now but there seems to be an unusual amount of sniffling going on.
  6. The_Brown_Hornet Michael Lynagh (62)

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    The company I work for decided to self-isolate. Practically all of us can work remotely so we're doing it now. I expect both my kids schools to shut up shop by next week too.


    My only concern is if we bring the country to a stand still like Italy and Spain have. That would be catastrophic.
  7. cyclopath Stirling Mortlock (74)

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    Yeah, I know of a few others with similar symptoms, and 1 or 2 who have also been tested and were negative. Apparently common colds are still around! ;)
  8. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    It seems that you either have a shutdown by your choosing to try and keep things under control or you have a forced one like Italy and Spain. Even if your plan was to just carry on as the UK were initially thinking and the Netherlands is now planning, how does your population do that when the situation is so bad and worsening?

    One quote I read the other day was: “The most fundamental function of a government is to keep its people safe. It is from this that it derives its authority, the confidence of the people and its legitimacy." This is pretty pertinent in my opinion. In a situation where panic is a very real issue, it is pretty easy to foresee that a population could lose faith in its leaders very quickly.

    boyo likes this.
  9. Froggy Bill McLean (32)

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    While I am not arguing against anything the government is doing (or might do) and agree with saving lives being a priority, the economic cost still must be balanced when making these decisions. The economic cost isn't, as some people would suggest, just a few people forgoing an overseas trip or a new car. If a shutdown were to cause a full-blown recession, as some economists are suggesting, that means mass long term unemployment and bankruptcies, which leads to a significant minority of the population falling into abject poverty, as happened with the great recession. Putting people, families and children in that position creates huge social problems, which will last long after Coronavirus.

    I'm not suggesting a lockdown of some sort for a period may not be appropriate, just that this idea of 'human life is most important, we can worry about everything else later' is a bit naïve, governments must consider the whole range of factors when making these decisions, which is something public health authorities don't have to do.
  10. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    It's absolutely a balancing act. The issue being that the two are so inextricably linked that you can't ignore one in the hope that focusing on the other will keep that part of the equation in a good position.
  11. dru Simon Poidevin (60)

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    Some have voiced expectation of quick development of vaccines based on human testing being underway. It is impressive that they have developed vaccine candidates so quickly and they are obviously crunching protocols to get something out.

    Unfortunately expectations that this might result in an available vaccine in a handful of months would appear to be impracticable.

    Let's call Phase 1 the development; Phase 2 the initial testing in animals and humans; Phase 3 testing and validation in the community. Then to manufacture. With that background listen to this conversation on a science forum I use. The poster being a molecular biologist (I believe).

    But in all seriousness, the turnaround for vaccines is usually quite a bit faster as desired reaction is (i.e. showing immune responses) is fairly easy to measure (at least in principle). According to Pharm folks quite a few assume that the vaccine is not going to be used recurrently so there is a focus on cheap and easy.

    With the accelerated stream efficacy can also be tested faster which basically can allow a fast rollout of phase III. Essentially first a few hundred than a few thousand folks will be treated and tracked. There it will show whether there is a likely acquisition of immunity (i.e. in essence it is already a low roll out of vaccination and at least theoretically this could could happen this year). Say May/June first safety results, if all is well on accelerated Phase II say two months to ensure that titers are there and high enough to indicate immune response. While results roll in start recruiting and one might have the first rollout for III maybe as early as August (say a few hundred patients). If efficacy and safety is still alright at this step a next wave could roll out a few months later with a few thousand patients. While the vaccine is not available for the population as such, I am pretty sure some would claim at that point that success at this point already. However, in principle we would need more time to gather sufficient info from Phase III to evaluate how much protection the vaccine actually delivers. That could be tricky as at that time it is possible if not likely that the number of infections are already declining. Actual full production and rollout normally proceeds after it is known to offer at least some level of protection.

    One should also not neglect the psychological value of the development itself. It provides folks with a sense of potential control over the situation and even if it does not come out in time, at least it feels like someone is doing something.

    FWIW I am still reading the likelihood of the matter being contained in less than 6-12 months, due to a successful vaccine, as unlikely.

    The govt position that Australia need to keep working through the epidemic is important. I honestly wish them the best in managing the infection rate to be less than the health system capacity, and keeping the place running.

    But it isn't going to be over quickly, imho.
  12. The Grey Man Allen Oxlade (6)

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    Is Mother Nature sending the human race a desperate last "wake up" message? Our population is well beyond sustainable levels.

    Are our leaders (everywhere) up to the task or do they even have the capacity or capability to make some very difficult moral and ethical decisions? As sure as sh!t stinks, unpopular decisions need to be taken. This crisis, and it is not just COVID-19 that needs to be dealt with, can not be solved in 6 second sound bytes and responding to opinion groups feedback.
    boyo likes this.
  13. kiap Mark Ella (57)

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    750k to get started. It's peanuts

    [IMG]

    Yep, and the raw mortality rates in China and Italy aren't a reliable indicator of much at all - hence the use of proper trials.
  14. Up the Guts Mark Ella (57)

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    Interesting study published in Italy earlier this week where they tested 3000 inhabitants of a Tuscan town and found that a very high proportion of the town was infected. Of those infected, 50%-75% were asymptomatic. The obvious problem with a high rate of asymptomatic infections is that those infected spread the virus rapidly.


    There is some good news, it does suggest there are probably a large number of undetected, unharmful cases and the mortality rates are potentially much lower than currently estimated as are the proportion of individuals infected who will need hospitalisation.
  15. COX'S ROUTE Frank Nicholson (4)

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    [IMG]
    18TH MARCH 2020
    SUFC regrets to inform our community that we have a confirmed case of COVID-19 within our playing group. The Club is in communication with NSW Health to deal with the situation.
    As the player was symptomatic on Sunday, NSW Health are advising anyone who had close contact on Saturday is of concern.
    Everyone determined to be a close contact of the case will be contacted by NSW Health and will need to self-quarantine for 14 days (until midnight 28th March).
    All other club mates and supporters who were present at the SUFG on Saturday 14th March for the Australian Club Championship are asked to remain vigilant and if symptoms arise please self-isolate and seek medical advice immediately.
    SUFC staff have been impacted and as such the SUFC offices will close until Monday 30th March.
    For further information about COVID-19 please refer to NSW Health information pages
    https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/diseases/Pages/coronavirus.aspx
    [IMG]
  16. Aurelius Ted Thorn (20)

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    So, something to ponder. The popular theory as to the origins of COVID-19 are that it originated in Chinese wet markets and was originally transmitted by bats.

    (The official theory is that it was introduced to the glorious nation of China on the military uniforms of American imperialist pigs, but I find the bat soup theory much more likely the bat-guano CCP-approved one).

    There has been a little bit of talk in the last couple of months about bat numbers in Sydney and Melbourne, and I seem to recall that they were considered a protected species for some reason. Once the corona virus has been dealt with, is it maybe time for a bat cull?
  17. Aurelius Ted Thorn (20)

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    Apparently research done in Singapore suggests that COVID-19 might already be mutating to a less virulent form. More good news, if true.
  18. WorkingClassRugger Steve Williams (59)

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    That would be good news. Apparently Belgium are now going to give every COVID-19 patient HydroxyChloroquine nationwide.
  19. tragic Trevor Allan (34)

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    I don’t disagree with most of that.
    Although Lombardy has a first class health system so don’t draw any solace from the presumption that we will fare any better.
    My point was that media releases that come before the outcome data reaches the journals are a grab for funding - it happens every year when research grants are about to be allocated.
    Doesn’t make it any less vital but it’s not the groundbreaking cure from local docs the press release would have you believe.
  20. Aurelius Ted Thorn (20)

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    If anyone's curious about how Australia's gone about flattening the curve compared to the rest of the world, here's a handy visual source:

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/

    It was last updated a couple of days ago before the latest suite of social distancing measures was announced, so I expect it will have flattened a little more. So we don't seem to be doing too badly so far.

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