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COVID-19 Stuff Here

Discussion in 'Everything Else' started by dru, Mar 16, 2020.

  1. Brumby Runner John Eales (66)

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    Nations around the world are going into lockdown and severely curtailing freedom of movement among their populations.

    I would be interested in knowing if any, and which ones, are suffering the same shortage of products as we are here. Are Supermarkets experiencing the same shortages of product that we see? I don't see the same sort of coverage of daily life difficulties that are occurring here.

    If not, I start to wonder why. Is it possibly because Australia has embraced free trade so wholeheartedly? So many manufacturing concerns have disappeared over the years and we have become more and more reliant on imports for many of the products we use on a daily basis. Is it time for some reconsideration? Could the Holden plant be reopened as a govt enterprise to kick start the manufacturing industry in this country again?

    And, if we, through the Government, get into subsidising or bailing out publicly listed companies, should we be buying a stake in those companies so that in future we the taxpayers can see a real return on the outlays that are being made on our behalf?
  2. Pfitzy Tim Horan (67)

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    I like that site. I'm just looking at the rate of doubling as a simple measure - currently Australia between 3 and 4 days which is not great but not as peaky as some nations.

    As cyclo says tho: stats are fairly meaningless until you hit a certain sample size, and how many are carriers without a diagnosis?

    On ABC radio the other night they were comparing NSW's testing numbers with the entire USA, and we are well ahead.
    Up the Guts and tragic like this.
  3. The_Brown_Hornet Michael Lynagh (62)

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    I've been putting together some of my own stats about this, with data taken from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    I'd say we're doing alright at the moment. Not as good Singapore or South Korea, but OK.
  4. Rob42 Bill McLean (32)

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    The UK and US are both now experiencing the toilet paper craze that we experienced, which seemed to start in Hong Kong a couple of weeks before it came here. It's not rational behaviour - we're pretty self-reliant in terms of toilet paper manufacturing, so I don't think I'd be suggesting that it's peoples reaction to free trade deals.
  5. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    All economies work on just-in-time procurement because it is easily the most efficient way to do things. It doesn't take a sizable increase in demand to make it appear like there is nothing to buy.

    Everything appears in short supply right now because enough people are trying to stock up. It's a problem because whilst there is no overall shortage of supply, there's an inability to meet the current demand. The fact that you can't buy the things you want means that when you do find them you naturally buy more because it might be a while before you see that item available again.

    Clearly a lot of people are trying to fill their pantries/freezers/cupboards for the event of a lockdown and/or supply problems. This is making it very difficult for a lot of people to do even their normal shop, let alone buying in bulk.
  6. waiopehu oldboy David Wilson (68)

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    "New Zealand is closing its borders to everyone but citizens and permanent residents in an attempt to stop the growth of coronavirus.

    "The ban is in place for planes boarding after 11.59pm on Thursday - any planes in the air already would not be impacted.

    "Partners and children of citizens or permanent residents are exempt from the ban, as are some health and humanitarian workers."


    She's also called on the 600K Aus-resident kiwis to stay there.
  7. Up the Guts Mark Ella (57)

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    As is Australia
  8. waiopehu oldboy David Wilson (68)

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    ^ story has just broken here.
  9. Ignoto Peter Fenwicke (45)

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    Thanks for sharing that, great site! I wish we had the stats on the level of 'severity' or hospitalizations due to the virus. I would imagine it would help people realise that it isn't a death sentence and that a full scale lockdown is not necessary at this stage.
  10. cyclopath Stirling Mortlock (74)

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    Um, the concept of a lockdown is not for what's happening now, it's for what is to come.
    Our current mortality rate, which is kind of meaningless due to immature data, is good. 1%.
    If we look at a 20% infection rate, in 25 million people that's 5 million getting at some stage over the next 3-6 months maybe. 1% of those die, it's 50 000. Not small.
    If 5% of those need acute level care (not you, not most of the people saying "it's not a death sentence") that's 250 000 needing an acute level (read ICU or similar) bed at some point.
    We have about 2 000 in Australia.
    We can ramp that up to maybe 4000 by using cardiac ICU, neurosurgical ICU and tasking a lot of operating theatre ventilators to create ICU level beds.
    Then we need acute care nurses to staff them, intensivists to oversee it (anaesthetists will be recruited, in Italy even people like me - surgeons - were all brought in), more equipment to replace parts that fail.
    250 000 into 4 000 needs to be really spread out to work.
    Now, admittedly it might end up better than that. I hope so. Maybe infection rates will plateau, although it would buck the trend from most other countries based on the measures we are, and are not, undertaking.
    Don't forget in all this the rationalisation of other medical care - the UK are triaging Urological cancers with the aim that many will be on surveillance for up to 6 months which would normally be treated within 1-3 months. Can't speak for other specialties.
    And hope the usual run of acute patients requiring ICU for all the normal stuff that happens somehow disappear. They won't.
    Sorry to be a downer, but I think there is far too much complacency going on right now. Witness the AFL and NRL. Spoke to my sister in Ireland tonight - they shut all the pubs and people basically went, "OK, probably makes sense". Here we have pubs, restaurants, bars and cafes plugging along. She'll be right.
    boyo, tragic, Dismal Pillock and 3 others like this.
  11. cyclopath Stirling Mortlock (74)

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    If anyone doubts the impact of not socially distancing, read this. If paywalled, basically 35 people test positive from wedding last weekend near Wollongong where basically no social distancing took place and believed to be from guests flying in from OS. Hugging, kissing, serving food from common dishes with common implements.

    Also Google South Korea patient 31 for a scary read.

    Social distancing works. If people do it properly.
  12. Ignoto Peter Fenwicke (45)

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    I'll start with, I agree that we will need a lockdown period to help relive the health care system.

    But let's play out the lockdown game. If Scomo placed Australia in lockdown as of Wednesday for only non essential people. What happens next? How long should we be in lockdown? Is it for two weeks, or is it until a vaccine is ready? Who looks after the Nurses, the cleaners, the truck drivers shipping the food around, the people packing food into the trucks kids? How far down the supply line do we go in lockdown for?

    The way I can see a full lockdown playing out is, you just shift when it runs rampant in Australia unless we are in lockdown till the vaccine. If we go in lockdown and wait out for this batch (and those infected but not knowingly) to recover. All it will take is a handful of people flying in and we're back at the start again.

    I don't think a lockdown is a simple yes answer. I agree we will need it if it gets bad.
  13. Slim 293 George Gregan (70)

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    Italy have overtaken China in the death toll...
  14. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    I expect we will have several lockdown periods of about 2 weeks over the next 6 months to help reduce the number of cases when things are getting out of hand.

    Now that we've effectively closed the borders and that won't change for a substantial period of time, I would have thought a lockdown would have been a good idea now to hopefully halt the increase in case numbers and give ourselves a better chance of identifying the various chains that are spreading the virus.

    As to who doesn't get locked down, that obviously needs some careful consideration. If most of the population are in lockdown and those workers are only going out to do their job then the number of daily contacts will be reduced massively.

    It is still clear that so many people are not practicing any form of social distancing, let alone isolation.
  15. Slim 293 George Gregan (70)

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    The NZ Warriors have now decided to stay in Australia...

    The AFL and NRL continuing under these circumstances is quite farcical.
    boyo and Ignoto like this.
  16. cyclopath Stirling Mortlock (74)

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    I'd go further. It's culpable.
    Dismal Pillock, Slim 293 and Ignoto like this.
  17. Sully John Eales (66)

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    But MONEY!
  18. Dctarget Tony Shaw (54)

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    They don't shake hands after each match but they tackle & tag each other for two hours literally covered in sweat. Then they go home to their families and friends. Fucking ludicrous.
    boyo, Slim 293 and Dismal Pillock like this.
  19. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    The hypocrisy between playing a contact sport and then trying to avoid shaking hands is ridiculous.

    Various articles about the AFL last night talked about the players not doing a good enough job of setting an example because they were still high fiving and shaking hands etc.

    They ignored the fact that the bad example is playing the match in the first place and when you're playing a contact sport, avoiding shaking hands afterwards is irrelevant.
    boyo, Sully, Slim 293 and 1 other person like this.
  20. Dismal Pillock Mark Loane (55)

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    Easy enough here on the Pitcairns where everyone hates everyone else.

    i reckon once this is all over, Hollywood will conscript their young and beautiful to do a "Blair Witch" style doco film based on the footage of those 40 or so frat bros and chix closely mingling on the beach in Florida the other day.

    Faux "tracking" each one of them afterwards, who they contacted, how they spread the deth etc. "The 41 Florida Beach Bros'n'hos vs The Pangolin Ringling Bros High Wire Netless Faceplant of Death."

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