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COVID-19 Stuff Here

Pfitzy

George Gregan (70)
So with 1050 tested positive as of 2:30PM according to the website I posted earlier, the doubling rate still appears to be somewhere between 3-4 days. We'll see what the results of Bondi Fuckwits are in the coming week. What a bunch of fucking idiots.

Mate of mine did my pool cover for me today - friends of his he was visiting during his onward journey were at that wedding being mentioned as a hotspot. They will be sitting back from each other at tonight's bonfire, I imagine.

If covid19data.com.au is close to accurate, case increase per day is variable but sitting around 1.20 on average since 1st March
 

Pfitzy

George Gregan (70)
Quickly charted it - basically the number of cases reported on a given day, divided by the number the day before. Only did March because data before that is probably low in quality, given the case counts (e.g. stuck on 15 for 2 weeks in Feb).

The exponential curve of cases per day looks fucking scary, but for me it is the red line below - trend line going up, despite the odd "good" day.

EDIT: Note that I put an Exponential trend line on there and it wasn't significantly different from Linear so I left it.

caseincrease.png
 

WorkingClassRugger

David Codey (61)
Depends whether it halves the actual infectious period, or just the symptomatic period for that patient. The former would be a huge benefit, the latter only a benefit if the shorter period correlates with a lower chance of needing high-level acute care. Agree, if this combo has demonstrable benefit, it could be good as we know these drugs already, and they should be relatively easy to ramp up in supply. Wait and see.

Yeah. The article I've read wasn't overly clear on that. Hopefully, it's the former rather than the later.
 

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
Only did March because data before that is probably low in quality, given the case counts (e.g. stuck on 15 for 2 weeks in Feb).

Even now, I don't think the data we're seeing coming out around the world is any better. South Korea, the Diamond Princess, and some small Italian town are the only places where they've tested outside those showing symptoms. Everything else is prone to rampant selection bias.
 

Aurelius

Ted Thorn (20)
Just thought I'd post this about the apparent situation in Russia (this was briefly discussed on the GRR thread before comments got deleted):

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...ernment-is-covering-up-cases-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Who knows what's happening over there?

But it does raise the question of how many countries are being straight with the world (not to mention their own people) about how wide-spread the coronavirus is. I still can't believe there's not more push back on China's claim that there have been no new cases in recent days, for instance.
 

WorkingClassRugger

David Codey (61)
Just thought I'd post this about the apparent situation in Russia (this was briefly discussed on the GRR thread before comments got deleted):

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...ernment-is-covering-up-cases-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Who knows what's happening over there?

But it does raise the question of how many countries are being straight with the world (not to mention their own people) about how wide-spread the coronavirus is. I still can't believe there's not more push back on China's claim that there have been no new cases in recent days, for instance.

I tend to think the reason for the lack of push back is largely due with those who'd likely be doing the pushing having to deal with their own ever increasing outbreaks at the moment.

Also, why Russia hasn't seen much of an increase in COVID-19 cases it has in pneumonia related deaths? Suspicious to say the least.
 

Froggy

John Solomon (38)
WCR,
Yes, that's how I read it. The downside is that there were only 36 patients in the trial, of which 10 were the control and 26 were treated. I'm sure any proper scientist (I'm not one) would tell you that's insufficient numbers for any great conclusions to be drawn, but given how stark the results were I would have thought it certainly a cause for further investigation
 

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
The states are looking to get a consensus on closing schools..............

NSW and VIC pushing hard for this, and VIC will likely do it from Thursday regardless.

Pubs, restaurants and clubs likely to be forced to shut soon.............

Footscray bar crawl last hurrah coming up.
 

WorkingClassRugger

David Codey (61)
WCR,
Yes, that's how I read it. The downside is that there were only 36 patients in the trial, of which 10 were the control and 26 were treated. I'm sure any proper scientist (I'm not one) would tell you that's insufficient numbers for any great conclusions to be drawn, but given how stark the results were I would have thought it certainly a cause for further investigation

Yeah. Clearly to small of a study to be confident of the results. But definitely enough to justify an expansion to at least a few hundred.
 

WorkingClassRugger

David Codey (61)
The states are looking to get a consensus on closing schools......

NSW and VIC pushing hard for this, and VIC will likely do it from Thursday regardless.

Pubs, restaurants and clubs likely to be forced to shut soon.....

Footscray bar crawl last hurrah coming up.

Reading the outline of the stimulus and it reads like a preparation for a full lockdown in the not too distant future.

Call on schools expected tonight. With NSW and VIC threatening to break ranks. Also murmurs Clubs, pubs, cafes and restaurants are likely to be forced to close.
 

Pfitzy

George Gregan (70)
Even now, I don't think the data we're seeing coming out around the world is any better. South Korea, the Diamond Princess, and some small Italian town are the only places where they've tested outside those showing symptoms. Everything else is prone to rampant selection bias.


It is a ridiculously small sample size when compared to the millions at risk, but it is all we have as a coalmine canary.

The ad hoc nature of the public information is reprehensible. The sheer arrogance of the approach Federally has been exposed in both the bushfires, this, and disingenuous governance of the nation since the last election.

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au...morrison-did-wrong-coronavirus/15847092009555

After this shit clears off, Parliament should be a free-for-all on Morrison and his inept cronies. Inept? Egregious, more accurately.
 

WorkingClassRugger

David Codey (61)
It is a ridiculously small sample size when compared to the millions at risk, but it is all we have as a coalmine canary.

The ad hoc nature of the public information is reprehensible. The sheer arrogance of the approach Federally has been exposed in both the bushfires, this, and disingenuous governance of the nation since the last election.

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au...morrison-did-wrong-coronavirus/15847092009555

After this shit clears off, Parliament should be a free-for-all on Morrison and his inept cronies. Inept? Egregious, more accurately.

Absolutely. It's been ad hoc at best and everything about what's come out in the last couple of hours seems reactionary.
 

WorkingClassRugger

David Codey (61)
All non-essential services to shut down in NSW in the next 48 hours. I work in logistics which will continue but it will be interesting in how they'll have us manage it. I can see all of the non-essential freight being put aside. Meaning we could very easily operate with minimal crew.
 

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
All non-essential services to shut down in NSW in the next 48 hours. I work in logistics which will continue but it will be interesting in how they'll have us manage it. I can see all of the non-essential freight being put aside. Meaning we could very easily operate with minimal crew.
Yep, and that’s Sayonara Sally for the economy.
 

Ignoto

John Thornett (49)
Yep, and that’s Sayonara Sally for the economy.

It's interesting to see those hospitality industries completely pivoting to delivery based systems. Many cafes and restaurants are doing meal deliveries, brewpubs now deliver and even some luxury companies such as jeweler's will drop a product to your house.

Hopefully those who have had hours cut or lost can transition into these delivery temporary jobs.

What impact will this have on the building industry? Are tradies allowed to keep working? When does the Government go full into infrastructure building?
 
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