COVID-19 Stuff Here

[Pfitzy]

When does the Government go full into infrastructure building?

Right after this shit dies down - only way to reboot the economy.

Hopefully those who have had hours cut or lost can transition into these delivery temporary jobs.

Aged care will be screaming out for workers, as one example of a pivot.

 

[Sully]

Infrastructure like coal and nuclear so we can pay huge electricity prices for a couple of generations.

 

[Lindommer]

All this hoarding is quite silly: bum fodder, meat, pasta, rice, pphhhht! What any sensible person needs is a goodish stock of books to read, and plenty of wine. Many medicos have opined for yonks good red wine cures most ills. PM me.

 

[Up the Guts]

It's interesting to see those hospitality industries completely pivoting to delivery based systems. Many cafes and restaurants are doing meal deliveries, brewpubs now deliver and even some luxury companies such as jeweler's will drop a product to your house.

Hopefully those who have had hours cut or lost can transition into these delivery temporary jobs.

What impact will this have on the building industry? Are tradies allowed to keep working? When does the Government go full into infrastructure building?

Depends on what “shutting down all non-essential services” means. Could very well mean pubs/bars/restaurants can’t open. Best case scenario and they can then those who can succeed online are probably limited. Asian restaurants well established with takeaway will fair best, I can’t see western cuisines doing too well. Bars and coffee shops are gone.

If people can pivot now to keep paying their bills that’s a good thing but longer-term it will mean allocative efficiency is sub-optimal. Once this is won and done and there isn’t the demand for untrained aged-care and health care auxiliary services there likely won’t be much labour demand in the dwindling hospitality industry.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Latest developments over your ways would have the ~320K kiwis not entitled to any CentreLink payments feeling rather nervous, I'd imagine. Meanwhile any Strayan citizen resident in NZ who finds themselves in similar straits will have full access to health & welfare services regardless of whether they arrived last century, last year, or last week.

 

[cyclopath]

WCR,
Yes, that's how I read it. The downside is that there were only 36 patients in the trial, of which 10 were the control and 26 were treated. I'm sure any proper scientist (I'm not one) would tell you that's insufficient numbers for any great conclusions to be drawn, but given how stark the results were I would have thought it certainly a cause for further investigation

Problem is the anti-viral properties are relatively unknown. The killer with COVID-19 is bilateral interstitial pneumonia (BIP) where the lung tissue between the air sacs is destroyed by inflammation preventing the air sacs inflating (simply put). Secondary bacterial infections can also be problematic. So there might be a role preventing those.

 

[cyclopath]

WCR,
Yes, that's how I read it. The downside is that there were only 36 patients in the trial, of which 10 were the control and 26 were treated. I'm sure any proper scientist (I'm not one) would tell you that's insufficient numbers for any great conclusions to be drawn, but given how stark the results were I would have thought it certainly a cause for further investigation

Given the general tolerability of the agents used, I'd try it! But yes, scientifically very low level evidence.

 

[Dismal Pillock]

Problem is the anti-viral properties are relatively unknown. The killer with COVID-19 is bilateral interstitial pneumonia (BIP) where the lung tissue between the air sacs is destroyed by inflammation preventing the air sacs inflating (simply put). Secondary bacterial infections can also be problematic.

LOL, check out Mr Know-It-All the internet expert over here OH SHIT, it's Cyclo, as you were.....

 

[Pfitzy]

Back on infrastructure building for a second: energy market reform will be a piece of piss compared to this noise. You want to boost infrastructure AND meet your emissions goals? Build renewables and network upgrades.

The only issue is Nice-Work Angus, Fatty Christensen, and Matteo Canvanni having to give up their bi-weekly bukkake session with a lump of coal.

 

[Pfitzy]

The only issue is Nice-Work Angus, Fatty Christensen, and Matteo Canvanni having to give up their bi-weekly bukkake session with a lump of coal.

Oh that's with Coal Shitgibbon banging on the door with his carbon-dusted noodle in hand...

ENOUGH TANGENT nick

 

[Up the Guts]

Reading the Herald headlines this morning, “Italy death toll passes 5000.” Thought to myself, well they’re not talking about the rate of increases so I bet it has slowed down. Sure enough increase in deaths was down and number of new cases recorded was the lowest since Feb 21. Number of new cases recorded lowest in over a month and it can’t even make a sub-heading.

Whatever you think are the appropriate measures, full lockdown or herd immunity, there is no denying the media reporting on this has been complete alarmist dogshit to sell papers and is complicit in the panic buying we’ve seen.

 

[The Grey Man]

Talk to the old people, Up the Guts.

Newspaper was the dunny paper of their time, 6 inch squares. By publishing rubbish in his papers for the masses to buy, Murdoch has just been doing his bit to counter the Great Dunny Roll Famine of 2020.

 

[Braveheart81]

Reading the Herald headlines this morning, “Italy death toll passes 5000.” Thought to myself, well they’re not talking about the rate of increases so I bet it has slowed down. Sure enough increase in deaths was down and number of new cases recorded was the lowest since Feb 21. Number of new cases recorded lowest in over a month and it can’t even make a sub-heading.

Whatever you think are the appropriate measures, full lockdown or herd immunity, there is no denying the media reporting on this has been complete alarmist dogshit to sell papers and is complicit in the panic buying we’ve seen.

Italy has been in full lockdown for 11 days now. If the numbers weren't starting to abate even slightly then it would be even more worrying. They still had 651 people die yesterday (down from 793 the day before).

Herd immunity? Can you name any diseases that humans have ever achieved herd immunity for that doesn't have a vaccine?

I agree that some of the reporting has increased panic buying, particularly reporting about the lack of stock in supermarkets. Overall though I think the government response has been way too slow rather and has continually sought to downplay the biggest disruption to our economy and lives in just about anyone's lifetime.

Literally a week ago Scomo was saying it was no big deal and was planning to go to a rugby league game. He said that it was important for "Australians to keep being Australians" and then got up last night and complained that too many people were going to the beach and pub etc. He is completely out of his depth and is having to be dragged kicking and screaming to every new step rather than taking the lead and making decisive decisions. We have the advantage that we are several weeks behind other countries battling the disease and should be able to learn from their mistakes. Instead we're making many of the same.

 

[The Grey Man]

The WHO is a UN institution isn't it?

Has anything else come out of the United Nations? If there was a time for the UN to step up and take control, this would be it.

There seems to have been more reporting of Tom Hanks condition and response than from the United Nations dialogue, leadership, and response to this global crisis.

 

[Braveheart81]

The WHO is a UN institution isn't it?

Has anything else come out of the United Nations? If there was a time for the UN to step up and take control, this would be it.

There seems to have been more reporting of Tom Hanks condition and response than from the United Nations dialogue, leadership, and response to this global crisis.

The World Health Organisation is part of the UN. The reason why you just hear from them is that they are the authority on the situation.

They are presumably gearing up to assist countries with far less medical infrastructure than the countries initially dealing with COVID-19 who all have sophisticated healthcare systems.

 

[Up the Guts]

This is the only part of your post applicable to what I said:

I agree that some of the reporting has increased panic buying, particularly reporting about the lack of stock in supermarkets.

I don't need to point out cases where herd immunity worked because I never claimed it was a valid concept let alone said it was a policy we should follow. I didn't say anything about Scomo either.

I agree that this has been bungled by the government--the Ruby Princess debacle aptly summarises their ineptitude. But at the same time, much of the evidence we have suggests that the mortality and hospitilisation rates being spruiked in public are way overblown by selection bias. Whenever we've tested beyond those merely showing advanced symptoms (e.g. South Korea, Diamond Princess) the extremity of the outcomes has been much lower. Just because someone acknowledges that doesn't mean that they're advocating for business as usual.

 

[Ignoto]

He is completely out of his depth and is having to be dragged kicking and screaming to every new step rather than taking the lead and making decisive decisions.

Interesting thing my wife pointed out to me (she works in Bushfire CRC which you may have heard in the news recently), that every other disaster in Australia is not run by the politicians but is done by the emergency departments i.e. Qld Fire and Emergency Services. But pandemics aren't covered under their remittance so it defaults to the politicians and health bodies.

Unfortunately neither of these two have any knowledge on how to deal with an emergency such as the messaging that needs to go out, when it needs to go out etc etc. For example, every FES body has their own framework on what 'watch and act' vs 'prepare to leave' is, but nothing like that exists here. There is absolutely no need to have Scomo or the Premiers being the decision makers here as like you said, they are simply not equipped for this and will only care about the 'optics'.

 

[Tex]

That's not 100% accurate.

COAG has elevated any advice given by Australian Health Protection Principal Committee to have equal standing with that given by COAG, which is a major upgrade in the management of the situation by professionals, rather than politicians. The Committee is comprised of the states' and territories' Chief Health Ministers and is chaired by the Commonwealth Chief Medical Officer, who you can assume is the leading decision maker.

The state of emergency declared in Victoria specifically empowers the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, not the parliament or the executive.

Absolutely nail the PM and respective premiers on their messaging and leadership, but understand that they act on the advice given by professionals. Hopefully that's a comfort given the pretty bare cupboard when it comes to associating many politicians and intelligence.

 

[Up the Guts]

Unfortunately neither of these two have any knowledge on how to deal with an emergency such as the messaging that needs to go out, when it needs to go out etc etc. For example, every FES body has their own framework on what 'watch and act' vs 'prepare to leave' is, but nothing like that exists here. There is absolutely no need to have Scomo or the Premiers being the decision makers here as like you said, they are simply not equipped for this and will only care about the 'optics'.

Yep, Gladys, who won't be marked on the economic outcomes, is in favour of shutting everything down, Scomo, who will be marked on the economics, wants to keep things open. Regardless of whether you align more with the position of Scomo or Gladys it's pretty obvious that they're still playing politics even in the crisis. You don't want politicians running the show because their incentives are not tied to optimal outcomes but instead their self-perceived popularity.

 

[Tex]

TL;DR:

• social distancing measures are not understood well enough by many in the community
• relative to other major western nations, Australia is doing well
• we should expect to be locked down locally, rather than nationally
• closure of schools and lock downs are seen as a very strong measure that should be considered only when earlier social control measures are deemed ineffective, however, there is no agreed plan on how to manage a step-down from a measure like this, as relaxing social control measures might be seen as us having 'won' the fight, despite the real risk of additional waves on infection

This is today's advice as requested by the national cabinet: https://www.health.gov.au/news/aust...ronavirus-covid-19-statement-on-22-march-2020

• Australia has surpassed 1,00 cases, which is a significant concern
• situation in Australia as this benchmark was reached is vastly different to that experienced in UA and Italy
• COVID-19 test positive rates in Australia are 0.9% (compared to USA 13%, UK 5%, South Korea 3%)
• of the 7 deaths in Australia, all were people aged 75+
• of the 1,000 positive cases, so far fewer than 20 have required ICU treatment
• HOWEVER
• there are already large scale breaches of movement control measures, including two 'super-spreader' events in Sydney (wedding with 35 infections, plus a church service), who the hell knows what Bondi will do to the numbers

Here are AHPPC's positions (note that there is divergence in some areas from the states' responses):

• supports a national discontinuation of non-essential gatherings, reviewed at one month and at that time, decisions to be made re. relaxing measures or strengthening them depending on the epidemiology
• does not support closure of schools (Victoria closes theirs tomorrow)
• does not support full community lockdown
  • "It is not clear what the strategy for paring back of restrictions should be. Proponents talk about relaxing these measures when control is achieved, by keeping the borders closed for over 12 months until a vaccine is developed. Other proponents have a narrative that a 4-6 week total lock down would enable greater focus on case detection and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, and to consolidate preparedness of the health system.
    The social disruption of this option is extreme and good compliance has generally required strong law enforcement/military presence. The public messaging of this would be challenging and need to ensure that it does not give false hope that any subsequent epidemic will either not occur or be materially modified as the long term effect of this intervention is unknown."
• recommends stronger enforcement of quarantine measures, including phone checks, mobile phone tracking (currently occurring in Singapore and Hong Kong)
• the triggers for stronger measures are being reviewed from the initial point of >50% community transmission of COVID-19. We are nearing this point currently, and AHPPC is considering that the trigger for a full lockdown could be when there is a substantial growth in local infections, relative to the ability of regional hospitals to manage these cases