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Declining participation and ARU plans for the future

wamberal

Phil Kearns (64)
As much as I hate to say it, perhaps the fact is that we have over-performed since the advent of open professionalism, and we are now experiencing the new normal.


If AFL did not exist, and loig was the niche sport that it is everywhere else, we would be a rugby powerhouse.


But in the real world, maybe, just maybe, we should rank fifth. Behind NZ, England, France, and South Africa,
 

half

Alan Cameron (40)
As much as I hate to say it, perhaps the fact is that we have over-performed since the advent of open professionalism, and we are now experiencing the new normal.


If AFL did not exist, and loig was the niche sport that it is everywhere else, we would be a rugby powerhouse.


But in the real world, maybe, just maybe, we should rank fifth. Behind NZ, England, France, and South Africa,


In all honesty we are the number four code in Australia and have been for some time.

Every other code has gone to great lengths to develop their best and keep their best. Hand on heart as well in South Africa soccer is the game of the people whatever we may tell ourselves otherwise.

I think the term " Chickens coming home to roost" is apt. Decades of poor administration and leaving many areas we were once quite strong to other codes. In the 50's & early to mid 60's rugby in Sydney and NSW generally was the State Schools winter sport.

Just a small example on the Central Coast were soccer is simply busting this is an Ad for the Mariners what for you ask, GET THIS junior development of their elite players aged from 9 to 16. http://www.ccmariners.com.au/articl...4rnxloamd1hk1g0jqplfi3ggu#viT0qar2rYY8iTyC.99

I have said for a while now the over resilience on Super Rugby and the golden chains that hold us attached need to be broken before its to late. I have my own thoughts on what the quota system in SA will have long term on ratings.

We are essentially relying on an already failing system that today has more flaws. Time to develop plan "B" before its too late. However I don't hold out much hope. I actually see a lot of hype and sound coming out of the ARU pertaining to the women's 7's game.
 

Quick Hands

David Wilson (68)
As much as I hate to say it, perhaps the fact is that we have over-performed since the advent of open professionalism, and we are now experiencing the new normal.


If AFL did not exist, and loig was the niche sport that it is everywhere else, we would be a rugby powerhouse.


But in the real world, maybe, just maybe, we should rank fifth. Behind NZ, England, France, and South Africa,



Our overperformance at the start of the professional era (post 1995), was largely because of the amateur infrastructure that we had built during the 1980s and early 1990s. We won World Cups in 1991 and 1999, but the 1999 one was won by players, coaches and management which was lingering from the amateur era.

The 2003 was the high water mark in terms of media exposure and profile, but I'd suggest that 1999 was our on field zenith.

IMO the proessional era resulted in nothing more than corporate rugby types giving up their real jobs and getting on the rugby gravy train. Money was spent on executive salaries, player salaries and management costs on a level rarely if ever seen in Australian sport. The principal was run down to the extent that we burnt through about $30 million in ten years until the code was broke.

All of our eggs were put in the Wallabies basket and all resources directed at the elite professional game. Junior development was largely outsourced to the private school systems and so the game at junior club level and in the state school systems collapsed to the point where recovery will be an expensive and long process.

I've been involved with the same junior club since I was 5 (and I'm now on the wrong side of 50) and it's never been this bad. I live in a traditional rugby area, but there is virtually no rugby played in the state schools in this area.

We'll probably behind Ireland and Wales in the near future. About the level of Scotland and Argentina is where we are heading and I can see us staying there for a while.

I'm normally reasonably optimistic about things, but I can't for the life of me see how we are going to turn things around in anything less than a decade.
 

wamberal

Phil Kearns (64)
I'm normally reasonably optimistic about things, but I can't for the life of me see how we are going to turn things around in anything less than a decade.


In your interesting post you did not mention the Super League war, that helped us enormously I believe, in retrospect. Our newly professional game was fresh, glossy, and attractive to watch in contrast to the bickering and backbiting that was going on in the rival code. Another factor that helped us was that we adopted league techniques (particularly in defense) and we certainly adapted quickly to the whole professional ethos.

The problem we face, and I have said this before, is that we are in a long-term decline now. I was talking to a New Zealander earlier, and I had to admit to him that only one of the current Wallabies squad would be guaranteed a starting spot in any of the NZ Soup teams.

Maybe another dozen would get into one of the NZ Soup squads. Quite a few of our national squad would not make any NZ Soup squad. Frankly, some of them would not get a Mitre 10 start.
 

half

Alan Cameron (40)
Astute post Wamberal I would take it as stage further and have been banging on about this for years but I am often seen as being negative and over the top.

As I posted above “Chickens coming home to Roost” is my version, as quick hands has very correctly stated the local park teams and state schools were largely ignored for a very long time.

But back to the start, we had three huge things in our favour, first the Super League War, AFL was in a rare period of poor management, and soccer was in the final years of its existence as the NSL.

We got media from both News and Fairfax because of the above like we had never seen before.

Those in control of the picky bank totally miss read the signs and believed their actions were the cause, not seeing it was mistakes by other codes.

So things like turn State teams into club teams, effectively destroy the Sydney and Brisbane club competitions. These actions hurt so much and yet the signs of ratings, crowds, media etc all said you are doing a good job boys. But it was the failing of others not our efforts.

Post then the AFL has returned to its normal excellent management, RL also recovered made friends with News, and soccer have built a new national domestic competition. More over AFL has expanded their teams, soccer has exploded, league is developing a international presence of sorts.

There will come a point if we don’t change that the combination of a poor player base [both number and quality] and lack of interest by the general public will reach a point were rugby could become unimportant to the general public and then we are in real trouble.

My answer to tear it all down and start again is seen by many as beyond crazy, but as each year goes by I think we just can’t keep sliding backwards
 

Gnostic

Mark Ella (57)
Astute post Wamberal I would take it as stage further and have been banging on about this for years but I am often seen as being negative and over the top.


Great post mate.

For 10 years now I have been hoping for a turnaround in ARU management. The squandering of the once in a lifetime 2003 RWC windfall (which should have been cloistered and invested like a sovereign wealth fund for the development of the game) was the real start of the downward spiral. In the last few years I have pretty much lost hope that it can be turned around, I unfortunately think that collapse is probably inevitable now. What comes of it I don't know, because the whole international game is coming to a cross roads with the lack of any test scheduling past 2019. Will a Global season be agreed or will test rugby wither and we'll be left with the NH club game.

With current viewing in the SH (I'm unsure of the NH figures) I doubt Fox will be willing to pay big dollars again for the Super rights. Will this mean another expansion into the US to try for more dollars at the expense of quality and another decline in SH viewership?

In such an environment will the IRB rescue the Wallabies and Australian Rugby? Will there even be a will to do so?
 

half

Alan Cameron (40)
Great post mate.



With current viewing in the SH (I'm unsure of the NH figures) I doubt Fox will be willing to pay big dollars again for the Super rights.


I have never tried to hide the fact I am nowhere near as hard core as many on most rugby forums. I do believe it gives me an overview on what other codes are doing and how this can effect rugby.

Today in Melbourne the AFL [by F they seem to be on top of everyone] anyway the AFL media [Herald Sun] in Melbourne have written about the A-League.

They are reporting just for the A-League a huge offer has been made and to start this year with at least one and maybe two games and Socceroos live on 10.

Here is the link and as always I am amazed how much attention the AFL pay to other codes this is written by an AFL person on the Herald Sun.

Were do we fit and what does this say about Pulver as our rating are higher. Remember when the A-League started and we kinda laughed.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/f...e/news-story/25c2ac42d55704b9eddb62ddab28f6f6
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
Today in Melbourne the AFL [by F they seem to be on top of everyone] anyway the AFL media [Herald Sun] in Melbourne have written about the A-League.

They are reporting just for the A-League a huge offer has been made and to start this year with at least one and maybe two games and Socceroos live on 10.

Here is the link and as always I am amazed how much attention the AFL pay to other codes this is written by an AFL person on the Herald Sun.

Huh? The journalist is the Herald Sun's soccer writer. Why are they the AFL media? Of course the sport they produce the most content about is the main sport in the city the newspaper is based.

Were do we fit and what does this say about Pulver as our rating are higher. Remember when the A-League started and we kinda laughed.


The 2016-2020 SANZAAR broadcast rights deal is worth $57m a year to the ARU.
 
T

Train Without a Station

Guest
Some comments are a bit all over the place here.

If we want to talk about the squandering of $30M and saying it should have been used for the development of the game, we have to consider that close to half of it was used to support 22 "amateur" clubs.

Clearly this investment did not have the desired result, which kind of explains the termination of this investment.
 

I like to watch

David Codey (61)
The pigs with their snouts in the trough ,at the races on grand final day, pretty much sums up Rugby administration in Australia in 2016.
Says it all!
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
He has some reasonable points but also a few stupid and/or deceptive ones.

How is it that when we spent ZERO on the game, we were the best in the world, and now as we spend millions, we can’t beat time with a stick?

Kind of makes it sound like we made the decision to go professional and everyone else didn't do exactly the same.

There's no doubt we were better on a relative basis when the game was amateur but it also feeds back to how much of the rugby fraternity in Australia comes out of exclusive private schools.

A lot of our best players came from the sort of backgrounds and privilege that allowed them to play high level rugby as an amateur for a long time.

Yeah, I think the more salient bits are how we've ended up in a mess.


I agree with this and certainly think that a lot of it is the result of mismanagement over a long period of time.

I actually think the management of the game in Australia now is better than it has been for a long time. There's just a huge amount of damage we need to recover from.
 

Strewthcobber

Mark Ella (57)
He does make some good points but as always, he can't resist over egging the pudding and writing things which wouldn't pass the mustard even on here.

As my old boss used to say if you can't get the facts right, why would I list to your opinions?


I can also tell you that not once since 2007 have the ARU spent less than they have earned.

2014 $25m surplus onthe back of the Lions tour
 

The torpedo

Peter Fenwicke (45)
As QH said there is going to be a 10-year (or so) turnaround to become good again.
The worry is that we might not have 10 years left to turn it around, which is why I'm going to keep insisting that the ARU, first and foremost, need to find some investors to inject cash. After this we can then send the boys club to the Pitcairns
 

Strewthcobber

Mark Ella (57)
As QH said there is going to be a 10-year (or so) turnaround to become good again.
The worry is that we might not have 10 years left to turn it around, which is why I'm going to keep insisting that the ARU, first and foremost, need to find some investors to inject cash. After this we can then send the boys club to the Pitcairns

What do the investors get in return for their cash?
 
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