Blue
Andrew Slack (58)
If the independents stick to their guns, then the mining tax legislation simply won't get out of the lower house. Gillard's hands will be tied and it will completely destroy their budget. They will somehow try and paint the opposition as the ones that are being destabilising, but in reality it will of course be the independents they have sided with. It goes to my view that the 'stability' arguement from the independents is actually bullshit, and that in fact if they backed the coalition there is more likelihood of stability (due to their sharing of the same views).
If the independents roll on the mining tax, then there will most likely be a big backlash in their electorates and they may well lose their seats.
Barnaby Joyce implied on lateline last night that the opposition wouldn't have to do anything obstructionist or destabilising, as the diametrically opposed views of the country independents and the greens would do that for them. He would make a great deputy leader if he could only stop himself from being too controversial.
He can't seem to keep his mouth shut though which will always be his undoing.