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Hometown Refs

Discussion in 'Rugby Discussion' started by Rebels3, Feb 16, 2020.

  1. The Nomad Jim Clark (26)

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    Interesting only had a +10 penalty count during the same time while on the road .

    It’s the one stat on the spreadsheet that is vastly different to NZ and Aus teams . Playing away the SA teams end up with a very even penalty count for and against . Playing at home they are up by plenty more than their opponents.

    I don’t have a problem with certain teams regularly winning the penalty count as it could just be that they have better discipline, but to win the count by how much these numbers are suggesting is why people are making noise .
  2. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    Also, some of the penalty counts (particularly the 1-20 count when the Lions hosted the Rebels) should never happen. You would expect that game should be an 80 point flogging but it was very close (36-33).
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  3. Strewthcobber Mark Ella (57)

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    Does winning the penalty count correlate with winning the game?
  4. Rebels3 Desmond Connor (43)

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    They were from the official super rugby website.

    Looking at the stats it actually not the penalties that are been awarded, its the lack of penalties to the home team that is the outlier. Given the large sample size (n = 25+ for all metrics looked at) all metrics bar 1 fall within the same range of 9-10.5 pens awarded to either the home or away team. They are NZ teams refereed by a NZ ref, Aus refereed by an Aus ref, SA teams at home refereed by a neutral ref, SA teams away with a neutral ref. However within all this there is one outlier and that is SA teams refereed at home by a SA ref, where the count dramatically drops to only 7 pens a game with also the highest penalties awarded to the opposition (which I should point out is very marginal). It’s a differential of almost 3.5 pens, whereas every other area looked at, the pens averaged to less than 1 over their samples.

    You could look at factors like altitude etc. however the penalty count win percentage of visiting teams in the republic under the same conditions with neutral refs wouldn’t be good evidence for this theory. Oppositiom teams in SA only win 16% of penalty counts under a SA ref, when it is a neutral they win 46%. Neutral refs are awarding roughly 9.5 pens a game compared to the 7 awarded under an SA ref.

    What is causing this? Who knows? It could be several factors such as the environment (despite I said it wouldn’t be good evidence, however it could still be a factor), the opposition in the sample (it could be home ref allocation is only given to lesser teams therefore they might infringe more), television production influence on the ground, unconscious bias, who knows?

    There is many factors at play here, most likely the most innocent and obvious reasons as to why. However it isn’t a good look and should be investigated just for the sake of the comps integrity.
  5. Show-n-go Banned

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    To me, all this is just another nail in the coffin to piss off South Africa

    Corrupt country that keeps fucking up super rugby
  6. KevinO Jim Lenehan (48)

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    No, but winning a penalty count by large number always does. Normally the bigger penalty counts mean massive wins to.

    As quoted before the Lions v Rebels being 20-1 and the score being only a 3 point game is a bit crazy.

    Example in a unheard of situation, Munster won a penalty count 0-15 against the Southern Kings and the score of the game was 43-0 to Munster. Kings had 3 yellow cards, Munster 56% Possession, 60% Territory, 7 trys etc. All the other stats were quite even.
  7. Sully John Eales (66)

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  8. barbarian Nick Farr-Jones (63)

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    Rebels3 (and others), are there any stats on how neutral refs perform in South Africa?

    That would be an illuminating statistic.
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  9. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    Assuming I am reading Reg's stats correctly it would be as follows:

    Total South Africa home games against foreign team with any ref = 75 games, 580 penalties against home side, 746 against away side for an average of an extra 2.21 penalties a game against the away team.

    Total South Africa home games against foreign team with a South African ref = 42 games, 295 penalties against home side, 449 against away side for an average of an extra 3.67 penalties a game against the away team.

    That leaves:

    Total South Africa home games against foreign team with a foreign ref = 33 games, 285 penalties against home side, 297 against away side for an average of an extra 0.36 penalties a game against the away team.
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  10. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    Amazing work in the first instance Rebels3 and a great follow up Reg! This is great stuff and hopefully it helps drive change.
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  11. Strewthcobber Mark Ella (57)

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    Yeah it's top work.

    Just cause I thought it was interesting, and using zero_cool's spreadsheet from earlier in the thread.

    Here's a graph showing penalty count v points differential. 1582669643367_SnipImage.JPG
  12. barbarian Nick Farr-Jones (63)

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    That's pretty damning. Puts paid to the theory that visiting teams are more tired, struggle to adjust to altitude, etc.
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  13. Wilson Bob Davidson (42)

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    Was just making this point on the blog comments, makes it pretty clear the issue is the South African refs and not anything else
  14. barbarian Nick Farr-Jones (63)

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    The CEO of SANZAAR has responded, in rather bizarre fashion.

    https://www.espn.com.au/rugby/story...r-responds-damning-research-hometown-referees

  15. KevinO Jim Lenehan (48)

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    Agree ab0f832a-375f-4a5c-8ded-f7aeca071d33.gif
  16. RedsHappy Tony Shaw (54)

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  17. Sully John Eales (66)

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  18. Jimmy_Crouch Vay Wilson (31)

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    So strange.

    Why can't Lyndon Bray face the media each Sunday/Monday? He could answer pre-requested questions from the media about decisions from the weekends matches. Simple.

    The reason I suggest pre-requested questions is so they could cut the film and educate all at the same time. Also so he can be clear on the decision.
  19. RoffsChoice Jim Lenehan (48)

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    Please, I've seen Aussie refs shit on the Brumbies more than I've ever seen them support them (though cheers to the Hoff for that game against the Force a few years ago, jeez you must have hated that Force team, you whistled us to victory there). And screw that "stones in glass houses" fallacy, you don't have to say Aussie refs are good to acknowledge how bad the stats are for Saffa refs.
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  20. Sully John Eales (66)

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    The stats just don't back that up. On average. There are always going to be bad calls though.

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