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NRC 2015 - the home stretch

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T

TOCC

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Current Table:
1. Vikings: 24pts (5games)
2. City: 24pts (5 games)
3. Stars: 14pts (5games)
4. Rising: 12pts (5games)
5. Spirit: 10pts (6games)
6. QLD Country: 9pts (6games)
7. Eagles: 9pts (5games)
8. Rays: 5pts (5games)
9. Rams: 3pts ( 4games)

So by my calculations, Vikings and City have qualified for the finals regardless of the results from the next 3 rounds, which leaves 2 spots open for the finals. Based on points on offer and oppositions in the remaining rounds, i see it as a 3 horse race between Rising, Spirit and Stars.

Remaining Matches
Vikings: MEL(H), BRI(H), QLD(A)
City: SYD(H), CAN(A), GSR(H)
Stars: GSR(H), BRI(H), MEL(A)
Rising: CAN(A), NSW(H), SYD(H)
Spirit: NSW(H), GSR(A)
QCountry: NHR(A), CAN(H)
Eagles: PER(A), MEL(A), NHR(H)
Rays: GSR(A), QLD(H), NSW(A)
Rams: SYD(A), NHR(H), PER(H), BRI(A)

My tables prediction after Round 9 is:
1. Brisbane City
2. Vikings
3. Rising
4. Spirit
5. Stars
6. Rays
7. Eagles
8. QLD Country
9. Rams.

Key match-ups which will determine the finals:
Rd 7:
-Vikings vs Rising
-Stars vs City

Rd 8:
-Vikings vs City(decide 1st place and home final)

Rd 9:
-Rising vs Stars(will decide 4th finals spot)
 

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Stars won't win another game.

Vikings to finish #1 as they've got home advantage in that match up vs City. Their pack is way too strong.
 

RugbyReg

Rocky Elsom (76)
Staff member
Don't see why the pack is way too strong. Scrum match up will be fascinating. Gill's on ball player is better than Butler.
 

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
The whole pack are Super Rugby players. City only have 4. City's backline is much better however.
 
T

TOCC

Guest
I think the Stars will beat the Rams tomorrow, which will leave them on 18 or 19 points and within touch of the finals, i can't see the Stars beating Brisbane or Melbourne in.. Stars will be relying on the Spirit to drop a game.

Perth Spirit only have 2 games remaining and are currently sitting on 10 points, they need to win both the remaining games and pick up some bonus points along the way to ensure a finals spot.

Rays are the wildcard team, their 3 remaining matches are against the bottom ranked teams, they could in theory win all 3 games against the Rams, QCountry & Eagles and sneak into the finals on 20points.

20points seems to be the magical cut off this year for finals contentions.
 

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Alexander, Anae, Ala'alatoa, Enever, Arnold, Smiler, Butler, Vaea

vs

Talakai, Neville, Gill, Higginbotham
 
T

TOCC

Guest
Adam Ready and Pettowa Paraka have both debut'd for the Reds and contracted, not that the number of super rugby players in the lineup is the measure of dominance as seen by the Spirit and Rising in 2015.

I will be interested to see the scrum performance, Vikings and City are both vying for the second best scrum in the competition. Vikings have a big physical back row but Gill has been head and shoulders above the rest of the NRC open side's.
 

Hugh Jarse

Rocky Elsom (76)
Staff member
I think Stars got a BP victory (7 tries to 4) to make the table look like this:

Canberra Vikings 24 pts*
Brisbane City 24 pts*
Sydney Stars 19 pts
Melbourne Rising 12 pts*
Perth Spirit 10 pts
Queensland Country 9 pts
NSW Country Eagles 9 pts*
North Harbour Rays 5 pts *
Greater Sydney Rams 3 pts*

* had the bye

3 points separate places 4 to 7.

Stars may have just done enough to keep the Spirit out of the finals, but the Rising v Stars Round 9 fixture will be key.

Brett McKay's version of the current table:
CP5AuvgUsAAfc-4.png

source: @BMcSport twitter
 
T

TOCC

Guest
Stars beat Rams as predicted, so no change to previous finals prediction.

I think Its going to come down to bonus points between the Stars and Spirit, I can't see the Sydney Stars beating Brisbane City or Melbourne Rising but if they pick up a bonus point they may sneak into the finals ahead of the Perth Spirit.

Perth Spirit will likely win their remaining two matches against the NSW Eagles and Greater Sydney Rams, but they need to secure at least 1 bonus point in those matches to get ahead of the Stars.
 

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Stars are the story of the comp surely. Getting so much out of an average squad. Playford's quirkiness is paying off.
 

Rugbynutter39

Michael Lynagh (62)
Stars are the story of the comp surely. Getting so much out of an average squad. Playford's quirkiness is paying off.

Stars competitive on the field but off the field struggling to get a following given only really uni alignment - Balmain subbies support non existent

At the game today and around 500 crowd with more Rams than stars supporters

A nrc side linked to one nrc side does not work in building foundations.

Last season for Stars in present form i suspect
 

Ash

Michael Lynagh (62)
Stars have the strongest squad of the Sydney teams, I though.

They just have the worst depth in the comp.
 

Intruder

Dave Cowper (27)
Brett McKay's version of the current table:
CP5AuvgUsAAfc-4.png

source: @BMcSport twitter

Proceeded with a fair estimate IMO of the final four places. I believe the Stars will need to secure at least one BP to stay safe, as I have the Spirit making it into the finals by Points differential.

Team/ Ladder
(Opposition/ Pts out of the fixture)

Stars 19pts:
- Bris City/ 0
- Bye/ 0
- Rising/ 0
= 19pts

Rising 12pts
- Vikings/ 1
- Eagles/ 5
- Stars/ 5
= 23 pts

Perth 10pts:
- Bye/ 0
- NSW Country/ 4
- Rams/ 5
= 19pts

Eagles, Rays and QLD Country have no chance IMO to make the cut with three games remaining

> Finals Fixtures:
1. Brisbane City vs 4. Perth Spirit
2. UC Vikings vs 3. Melbourne Rising
 

Hugh Jarse

Rocky Elsom (76)
Staff member
Brisbane City, UCanberra Vikings will be 1 & 2.

Melbourne Rising will most likely be 3.

Coin Toss between Sydney Stars and Perth Spirit for the last spot in the top 4.

Perth Spirit seem to hold key players back from away games, and this policy may be their undoing finals wise. With a possibility of finals footy, you'd expect that McIssac would be putting pressure on the rockstars to be available for Eagles and Rams in order to get the vital W with a >3t BP, the latter of which has been hard to get for most teams (excluding Vikings and City) this year.

Stars have also been resting Super Rugby Players which has cost them games. If there is a sniff of a finals slot, if I were Coach, I would write off the BCity match but do my utmost to get them back on deck for the fixture against the Rising, and also to help get combinations and structures ready for Finals.

NSW Counry Eagles, Queensland Country, North Harbour Rays and Greater Sydney Rams are goooooone.
 

Rugbynutter39

Michael Lynagh (62)
Yes would give Stars a chance against the Rising and NSW Country Eagles a chance to beat Perth spirit more likely the go for Stars to just scrape in.....
 

Hugh Jarse

Rocky Elsom (76)
Staff member
UC Vikings (1st, 24pts): Melbourne Rising (H), Brisbane City (H), QLD Country (A)
The undefeated Vikings are set to claim a home semi final, and will be well prepared for finals footy, with two fairly tough fixtures at home against the Rising and Brisbane, and then an away game against the youngsters from Qld Country. They should win 2/3 with a BP taking their tally to at least 34 points.

Brisbane City (2nd, 24 pts): Sydney Stars (A), UC Vikings (A), Greater Sydney Rams (H)
Brisbane City are also on track to host a home semi final.
With Super Rugby talent to burn, they should easily account for 2015 surprise package, Sydney Stars and then face probably their toughest match yet in Canberra (for the Minor Premiership). The cellar dwelling Rams should not pose too much of a thread in their last game. Tipping 3/3 with a >3T BP in 2 games to take their final tally to 38 points.

Sydney Stars (3rd, 19 pts): Brisbane City (H), Bye, Melbourne Rising (A)
The Stars have a fairly tough run into the finals with only two games, one against the red hot Brisbane team laden with Reds superstars, and one against the rising Rising who similarly have a full contingent of Super Rugby players. The loss of Chibba Hansen to Wallaby duties, Dennis to ?, McCutcheon to 7’s, and Hickey and Ryan to injury sees the Stars a bit shy on for horsepower for the crunch matches coming up. They will probably be focusing on getting a W or at least a BP against the Rising. Tipping 0/2 but with a BP against Rising to finish on 20 points.

Melbourne Rising (4th, 12pts): UC Vikings (A), NSW Country (H), Sydney Stars (H)
After facing the might of the Vikings in Canberra, the Rising have a fairly comfortable run in to the finals. Their roster seems to be getting stronger buy the week but their confidence may be a little shaky after the away loss to the Spirit and skinny victory over the Rams. Tipping 1L, 1W (BP), 1W to end up on 21 points. The BP may be critical, noting that they are yet to get one this season.

Perth Spirit (5th, 10pts): NSW Country (H), Greater Sydney Rams (A), Bye
The Spirit have continued their policy of resting their Super Players during Away matches and this has resulted in some indifferent form this season. They have a fairly easy run home, although only two chances to accumulate points, and they need to do so with BP’s to have any chance of making the playoffs. Tipping two victories, but missing out on a >3T BP on the away game to leave them on 19 points.


QLD Country (6th, 9pts): Bye, North Harbour Rays (A), UC Vikings (H)
QLD Country have probably the youngest team in the competition, and in some respects could be viewed as the Reds development squad. They have punched above their weight division in most games but have a fairly tough agenda for the rest of the regular season with only two games to play, with one of them against the impressive Vikings. They have the potential to take the chocolates from the Rays if everything goes right for them, but will be cannon fodder like a junior public servant facing up to Senate Estimates Committee when they take on the Vikings. Tipping 1L BP and 1L to finish on 10 points as the 2015 Wooden Spoon Runner up.

NSW Country Eagles (7th, 9pts): Perth Spirit (A), Melbourne Rising (A), North Harbour Rays (H)
The Eagles can theoretically make the finals if they can win 3/3 and pick up a BP or two. Can they do it with a trip to the West and then a short turnaround against the Rising?
Tipping 1W, 1L BP, & 1L to end up with 14 points.

North Harbour Rays (8th, 5pts): Greater Sydney Rams (A), QLD Country (H), NSW Country (A)
The Rays have one of the easiest last few weeks around, but all three “easy” opponents could upset them and steal the chocolates. I can’t see them winning all three games and am tipping 1W BP, & 2L BP to take their tally to 12 points.

Greater Sydney Rams (9th, 3pts): North Harbour Rays (H), Perth Spirit (H), Brisbane City (A)
2015 will go down as a close but no bananas year for the Rams as they have pushed many sides and were desperately unlucky to record a L in several of their games. How different things may have been with a more reliable kicker? With local bragging rights up for grabs (and possibly the 2015 Wooden Spoon GF), the Rays fixture should be a beauty that could go either way. Perth will be vulnerable in the East, and Brisbane will be too good at Ballymore. Tipping 1W, 1L BP, 1L to end up with 8 points and the 2015 NRC Wooden Spoon.

Defining Fixtures:
Round 7 - Spirit v NSW Country. Spirit need a W and BP to have a chance of making finals.
Round 7 - Rams v Rays. Loser could most likely win the Wooden Spoon.
Round 8 - Vikings v Brisbane. Minor Premiership at stake.
Round 8 - Eagles v Rising. Rising need a W and a BP to cement a place in the finals.
Round 8 - Rams v Spirit. Spirit need a W and BP to have any chance of making finals.
Round 9 - Rising v Stars. A losing BP should get Stars into the final ahead of the Spirit.

Predicted Table after 9 rounds:
1. Brisbane City - 38
2. UC Vikings - 34
3. Melbourne Rising - 21
4. Sydney Stars - 20

5. Perth Spirit - 19
6. NSW Country Eagles - 14
7. North Harbour Rays - 12
8. Queensland Country - 10
9. Greater Sydney Rams - 8

Anything can and does happen in Finals footy but you’d have to be tipping a Brisbane v Vikings Grand Final.
 
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