S15 - Rebels V Reds

So the Wallabies v Wales series is over, and it was truly test rugby, a bit boring but fought to the bitter end by both sides. And now back to Super 15.

The Rebels will be feeling pretty good with Beale back in the side (assuming there is not a court case this week), and JOÇ seemingly OK to play the game.

Against them, the Reds have lost Big Kev for the rest of the season, but have Quad Cooper back fully (well virtually anyway) fit and ready to show his supporters that he's the real deal.
Combined with Guinea they make a very formidable halves combination, indeed the one that helped win the Super 15 competition last year.

This is a game, like every game from now on, the Reds can't afford to lose. But the Rebels are at a stage where they have something to prove - that they are no longer the easy-beats as thay proved against the Crusaders, at the Stockade

So who will win, and why?

Reds. Samo is back.

We managed to push you guys last year for most of the game. Who knows what will happen after the break, it's the first time this has happened.

You've played a trial game against the Canes, we had an opposed session, so

I don't know if the Mortlock/Huxley factor will come into play, maybe not. If Delve re-signs though (apparently he will), the bloke will have one hell of a game.

Rebels by 30. Delve to announce his new contract in the post-match press conference, to be signed with Quade's tears.

Reds don't just need to win but need the bp as well. Hopefully this means we will see an attacking game, at least after the initial softening up period, and the reds will be full focus for the 80.

One concern for me is possible burnout of genia again.

My XV:
1. Henderson
2. Robinson
3. Owen
4. Neville
5. Pyle
6. Jones (possible foot issues from trial) or Davidson
7. Davidson/Perrett
8. Delve
9. Phipps
10. Beale
11. Vuna
12. O'Connor
13. Inman
14. Gerrard
15. Huxley

What's the latest on Saffy?

Out of the season, still has kneck issues. He seemed "normal" when we met him in Perth last month, but obviously contact is a different situation.

Well it's nice to have a dream I guess.

Reds line up is going to be interesting? Is Quade fit?

My guess on QLD

1- Greg Holmes
2- Saia Faingaa
3- James Slipper
4- Rob Simmons
5- Adam Wallace-Harrison
6- Jake Shatz/Beau Robinson
7- Liam Gill
8- Scott Higginbotham
9- Will Genia
10- Quade Cooper
11- Digby Ioane
12- Mike Harris
13- Anthony Faingaa
14- Dom Shipperely
15- Luke Morahan

Bench: James Hanson, Ben Daley, Radike Samo, Beau Robinson/Jake Shatz, Nick Frisby, Ben Lucas, Chris F'Sautia

Not sure on Robinsons injury status, I also read that Ben Daley might have a niggle? We cannot afford another injury in the second or backrow, especially now Quirky is gone.

If they forfeit do we get he 5 points? The reds are in a corner here and will need the 5 points. This is real worry in that this is about the time you'd see teams go down by 4 try's.

Reds to do the job. Won't be pretty though. Beau to have a blinder.

Penguin, this goes beyond dreams. I would liken to the unrealistic, illogical aspirationalism of the Howard battler.

Now I've come off as a smart arse; Reds to lose by 30, delve to resign using a pen filled with Quade's tears.

The way in which our Reds players return from the Wales and U20 series is likely to be crucial.

Horwill is a loss, but has he played to his best historical standards this year, not often, if at all. I've posted before, IMO the long and demanding 2011 season took a lot from him. I predict AWH to rise and play well from a starting position. Samo is a major concern in any spot, he's looked and played 'as though retired' all year.

Again IMO Genia can and will be a better Reds captain than Horwill; he was outstanding with Horwill out in 2010, and he'll be better now with a so much more experience and maturity. Note that he does far more tactical talking and gesticulating within the Wallabies matches than does Poey.

Gill could well be physically and mentally jaded after the Nucifora-coached disaster for the U20s in RSA, where he was captain. He's likely gained nothing from that awful experience except all forms of scar tissue. Let's hope that coming back for the Reds, is like old home week for him in the best of senses. And CFS clearly went backwards in that comp.

QC so far this season has been OK, but there has been much rust and error in his play. Not to have played since Canberra must be a concern as to how match fit and psychologically confident he is if he starts on Friday in a must-win encounter.

There will be much disagreement over my next statement, but I believe this year Diggers has been drawing heavily on the reputational bank deposits, and the actual delivered form top ups to that account have been too few. He's line braking and penetrating quite well as we'd expect, but his well known handling, ball security, over running and haphazard passing flaws have been consistent, for the Wallabies as well as Reds. Has he scored a try all year?

I'll still predict a narrow Reds win on Friday. But the Rebels will have less volatile elements in their team, and JO'C is usually a quick returner to form after absences. KB was poor for Wales 3, but he may feel more settled and less pressured back with the Rebels. So, net net, more could potentially go wrong for the re-forming Reds than for the Rebels.

Although a lot of the Reds have played a lot of rugby over the last few weeks, Link has had an enourmous amount of time to work out his game plan and to make sure QC is up to speed.

Reds by 10

No Morty? Harsh.

Mortlock will start and be subbed off at the hour for his ovation.

What's the go with Benny Lucas? Didn't he pick up a minor injury in the Canes Game?

Mortlock on the wing and Gerrard at fullback? Surley they can't drop Inman. Huxley can play his last home game off the bench, it's not like he has had the same impact on the whole development on Melbourne rugby as Stirling has.

That's our best XV available, you can't displace it purely for sentimental reasons.

JOC is touch and go by reports. Start Mortlock there otherwise.

Mortlock will come on say 50th mark, O'Connor to full back, Mortlock to inside.