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Super Rugby 2015, the run home

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Lindommer

Steve Williams (59)
Staff member
version 1.0

10 weeks down, eight to go and the wheat's now sorted out from the chaff. I've listed the teams in strict points order as there's little point in adjusting it for conference leaders at this stage. Also, away fixtures are highlighted in italics. The numbers after the teams are: competition points/games played/wins/points difference and bonus points.

Hurricanes (33/played 8/7 wins/+85/5 bp) Reds, Saders, Sharks, Chiefs, Blues, Saders, Clan, Chiefs
Chiefs (32/played 9/7 wins/+70/4 bp) Force, Rebels, bye, Canes, Bulls, Clan, Reds, Canes
Bulls (28/played 9/6 wins/+48/4 bp) Stormers, Lions, bye, Blues, Chiefs, Ponies, Rebels, Cheetahs
Highlanders (28/played 8/6 wins/+33/4 bp) Ponies, Sharks, Lions, Cheetahs, Force, Chiefs, Canes, Blues
Brumbies (26/played 9/5 wins/+83/6 bp) Clan, Tahs, Stormers, Lions, bye, Bulls, Force, Saders
Stormers (26/played 9/6 wins/+31/2 bp) Bulls, Cheetahs, Ponies, bye, Rebels, Cheetahs, Lions, Sharks
Waratahs (23/played 8/5 wins/+27/3 bp) Rebels, Ponies, Force, Sharks, Saders, Lions, Cheetahs, Reds
Sharks (21/played 10/4 wins/-40/5 bp) bye, Clan, Canes, Tahs, Reds, Rebels, bye, Stormers
Lions (21/played 9/5 wins/-48/1 bp) Cheetahs, Bulls, Clan, Ponies, Cheetahs, Tahs, Stormers, bye
Crusaders (20/played 9/4 wins/+51/4 bp) Blues, Canes, Reds, bye, Tahs, Canes, Blues, Ponies
Rebels (19/played 8/4 wins/-16/3 bp) Tahs, Chiefs, Blues, Reds, Stormers, Sharks, Bulls, Force
Cheetahs (14/played 9/3 wins/-91/2 bp) Lions, Stormers, bye, Clan, Lions, Stormers, Tahs, Bulls
Blues (11/played 9/1 win/-50/7 bp) Saders, Force, Rebels, Bulls, Canes, bye, Saders, Clan
Reds (11/played 9/2 wins/-115/3 bp) Canes, bye, Saders, Rebels, Sharks, Force, Chiefs, Tahs
Force (9/played 9/1 win/-68/5 bp) Chiefs, Blues, Tahs, bye, Clan, Reds, Ponies, Rebels


Canes: playing very well and with only one trip out of NZ and four home matches left look a monte for the top spot. The only fly in the ointment here is the fact six of their remaining eight games are against fellow Kiwis.
Chiefs: if they beat the Canes twice (unlikely) top spot beckons. Only three home games left, but this is countered with away matches against weaker teams, Rebels and Reds. Definite finalists.
Bulls: beat the Stormers in Cape Town this weekend and the top Saffer spot's theirs. Australasian tour looks a bit tricky; however, they should aim for two wins.
Clan: are they over-achieving? Only three Kiwi games left, looking good for the finals.
Ponies: MMmmm.....? Are the wheels starting to fall off due to their butcher's bill? Have they peaked too early? Bonus points and PD are somewhat skewed after their two Reds matches. If they don't beat the Tahs next week they won't be playing come late June.
Stormers: five home matches to go allied with only two games against higher teams (one at home), looking good for the finals.
Tahs: look to be hitting their straps, but I said that after the Rebels match in round 2 and again after the round 6 Ponies victory. Season to date is LWWLWWLW so they're due for a win this weekend. Next week's encounter in Canberra is season-defining for both teams.
Wobbegongs: the only team to've played 10 matches to date, and, with the Bulls, the only teams with two home games to go. Allied with their abominable disciplinary record I'd say the Sharks are pretenders in eighth spot.
Lions: doing very well for a side picked by most to finish last, outstanding tour east with three wins. Could end up third in the Saffer conference.
Saders: underperformed these last seven years, can't see them threatening the three better-performing NZ sides this year. Some slack has been cut for Blackadder after the Chch earthquake, but it's not going to last much longer. Should finish higher than 10th.
Rebels: all I'd like to see from the two new Oz teams is gradual improvement, the Rebels ARE showing improvement this year. But, please, I don't want to see it this weekend.....
Cheetahs: performing reasonably well after being ravaged by the Bulls in the off season. At least they're not coming last, and probably won't come season's end.
Blues: talk about a nearly year, six losses less than eight points/the most BPs, 7/only -50 PD. One could almost justify retaining Surgeon Kirwan's services. Cue explosion from Dismal Pillock.....
Reds: it would be unseemly of me to kick a fellow Australian when he's down, but, the Reds have been woeful this year. And last year. And disappointing the year before. We desperately need the three senior Australian sides to be playing well at all times, I can't help feeling the Reds are letting Oz rugby down.
Force: the Force showed some improvement last year but have gone backwards in 2015. WTF's happening?

Taking a macro look at the table today these points stand out:

1. The teams who've played eight matches so far are the Canes, Clan, Tahs and Rebels while the Sharks are the only side who've played 10. I can't see the Sharks threatening for a finals spot.
2. The intra-Kiwi fixtures make for a fascinating finish to their conference. The Canes have six iK matches to go, the Chiefs and Clan three each and the Saders four. The Saders are shaping like spoilers here.
3. It's difficult to see any finalist coming from outside the current top seven. The Ponies have four matches left against fellow finals aspirants, the highest of that group, while the Tahs have only one.
 

light

Peter Fenwicke (45)
If the Ponies fail to get up over the Highlanders this weekend I can see them dropping to 2nd in the conference and even out of the race. Injuries have really stalled their early momentum and the next 4 games before the bye are tough ones.

Canes are definitely the team to beat but the Kiwi conference is stacked with quality. Chiefs still the strongest IMO and showed serious class dismantling the Saders. How each team goes about resting their AB's will be vital, we should all be grateful for that policy.

That said, I can't help but feel the Waratahs are nicely placed and have the friendliest fixtures remaining. If they can keep their stars injury free, I predict it will be them playing the Chiefs in the final.

Final 6 IMO:
1- Chiefs
2- Canes
3- Bulls
4 - Highlanders
5- Tahs
6- Stormers
 

KevinO

John Hipwell (52)
2011 - Top 66pts - 6th 57pts
2012 - Top 66pts - 6th 59pts
2013 - Top 66pts - 6th 54pts
2014 - Top 58pts - 6th 42 pts

-8 points off all except 2014 for the two byes. Anyone want to take a guess on how many points to finish 6th or top the table this season?

My top 6
1) Chiefs
2) Stormers
3) Waratahs
4) Hurricanes
5) Bulls
6) Highlanders
 

BDA

Peter Johnson (47)
I haven't done the calculations yet (i'm sure i'll get bored and do it at some point).

At the start of the season I thought the the Chiefs and the Brumbies were the teams to beat. The Chiefs will be in the final 4 but the loss of Cruden is a pretty tough injury to overcome. It might hurt them come crunch time. The Brumbies have had some bad injuries too but I could still see them coming good.

The Canes will be in the final 4 too, and they're probably my favourites to win it from here. You have to have a pretty amazing season to take out the title and, despite last week's slip up, they've been sensational. Could be their year.

Not sure about the saffas. The Stormers look well placed. But they wont finish top of the ladder so, whilst I think they'll be in the final 4, I cant see them winning it.

I'm undecided on the Tahs. If they can hit some form from here, they've got the ability to win it.

If i was to pick a top four id probably say the Chiefs, Canes, Tahs and Stormers. The Brumbies and the Crusaders might go under the radar and could be dangerous. Couldn't see any of the rest making the top 4
 

Lindommer

Steve Williams (59)
Staff member
version 1.1

11 weeks down, seven rounds to go. Teams in points order, away fixtures are highlighted in italics. The numbers after the teams are: competition points/games played/wins/points difference and bonus points.

Hurricanes (38/played 9/8 wins/+101/6 bp) Saders, Sharks, Chiefs, Blues, Saders, Clan, Chiefs
Chiefs (37/played 10/8 wins/+78/5 bp) Rebels, bye, Canes, Bulls, Clan, Reds, Canes
Brumbies (31/played 10/6 wins/+96/7 bp) Tahs, Stormers, Lions, bye, Bulls, Force, Saders
Stormers (30/played 10/7 wins/+33/2 bp) Cheetahs, Ponies, bye, Rebels, Cheetahs, Lions, Sharks
Bulls (29/played 10/6 wins/+48/5 bp) Lions, bye, Blues, Chiefs, Ponies, Rebels, Cheetahs
Highlanders (28/played 9/6 wins/+20/4 bp) Sharks, Lions, Cheetahs, Force, Chiefs, Canes, Blues
Waratahs (27/played 9/6 wins/+29/3 bp) Ponies, Force, Sharks, Saders, Lions, Cheetahs, Reds
Lions (26/played 10/6 wins/-43/2 bp) Bulls, Clan, Ponies, Cheetahs, Tahs, Stormers, bye
Crusaders (25/played 10/5 wins/+65/5 bp) Canes, Reds, bye, Tahs, Canes, Blues, Ponies
Sharks (21/played 10/4 wins/-40/5 bp) Clan, Canes, Tahs, Reds, Rebels, bye, Stormers
Rebels (20/played 9/4 wins/-18/4 bp) Chiefs, Blues, Reds, Stormers, Sharks, Bulls, Force
Cheetahs (16/played 10/3 wins/-96/4 bp) Stormers, bye, Clan, Lions, Stormers, Tahs, Bulls
Blues (11/played 10/1 win/-64/7 bp) Force, Rebels, Bulls, Canes, bye, Saders, Clan
Reds (11/played 10/2 wins/-131/3 bp) bye, Saders, Rebels, Sharks, Force, Chiefs, Tahs
Force (10/played 9/1 win/-76/6 bp) Blues, Tahs, bye, Clan, Reds, Ponies, Rebels


Canes: still playing very well (does a win against the 2015 Reds count as playing well?:rolleyes: ).
Chiefs: two away games and a bye in the next three weeks, imperative they garner points here or they'll slip back against the Canes.
Ponies: good win against another finals contender, can they back it up this week against the Tahs?
Stormers: HUGE win against the Bulls, should leave them atop the Saffer conference come round 18.
Bulls: a bye followed by a trip to Australasia could result in points drying up. On somewhat thin ice to make the finals.
Clan: should be thereabouts come finals times.
Tahs: good game/crap game dance card this year, somehow they've eked out enough wins to stay in the finals race. BUT, they gotta win this week in Canberra or it's difficult.
Lions: still doing very well for a side picked by most to finish last, can't see them rising higher on the table.
Saders: unless they have a charmed run home they look like spoilers to me.
Sharks, Rebels, Cheetahs, Blues, Reds & Force: start reviewing your playing rosters/coaching staff for next year. Fellas, please do the right thing and give the Tahs easy games.

Salient points:
1. The games in hand held by the Canes, Clan and Tahs could prove vital.
2. Only the Canes and Chiefs are certainties for the top six, one of the Ponies, Stormers, Bulls, Clan or Tahs won't make it.
3. intra-Kiwi matches make for fascinating conjecturing.
 

Brumby Runner

David Wilson (68)
Feeling better about two Aus teams in the finals after seeing how the NZ sides (esp Canes and Chiefs) still need to play each other quite a bit. Bulls probably have the hardest run home; Tahs the easiest after this week.
 

Lindommer

Steve Williams (59)
Staff member
Checking out the points for those from positions 3 to 9 on the table looks interesting: 31/30/29/28/27/26/25. It's mathematically quite possible for the Lions and/or the Saders to make the finals but I just can't see it, especially as the Clan and Tahs both have a game in hand.

Stormers look to have the easiest run home with four home games and only one against a fellow finals contender.
 

Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
Without doing the detailed maths, my prediction is:
  1. Chiefs: Have got two games against the Canes and I think they will win both.
  2. Waratahs: After this week they've got a good run home apart from the Saders at the SFS, because the Saders love beating us even when we play better.
  3. Stormers: Will be third only because they cannot score four tries in a game. That for me writes them off as winning it because they have to travel to win in the finals.
  4. Hurricanes: Will lose to a couple of NZ teams incl. Chiefs twice but will likely have second highest number of points and won't have to travel far in the finals.
  5. Brumbies: Very tough run home starting this week. I don't think they'll finish in front of the Tahs.
  6. Highlanders: Last week put them out of the running for a home final. Will have to travel to SA in the finals for the second year in a row.
Crusaders have four tough games in the next six and are three points adrift and not playing well. If they can get out of their slump they just might do it but I think they'll just be trouble for whoever they'll play. I reckon the Lions and Bulls are no chance, though the Lions are playing way above their roster.
 

Lindommer

Steve Williams (59)
Staff member
Tahs are playing the Saders at Homebush this year, Hawko. Would hate to see you fly over and roll up to a local in Surry Hills for a pre-match beer. :(
 

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Not sure why'd you expect the Chiefs to beat the Canes without Cruden. I expect the Canes to win all 4 vs the Crusaders and Chiefs.
 

Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
Not sure why'd you expect the Chiefs to beat the Canes without Cruden. I expect the Canes to win all 4 vs the Crusaders and Chiefs.

They've got Horrell and two Mackenzies as replacements. All three are pretty good and Damien is, I think, the best of them.
 

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
But they're not better than Barrett and neither is their backline or pack better than the Canes. Plus Retallick is out.
 

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Version 1.2 as requested by @Lindommer.

12 Rounds gone & anyone currently placed 8th or lower can forget about making the playoffs. The teams who will be there are:

Hurricanes with 43 points from 11 matches with 9 wins & remaining fixtures (away games in brackets 'cos my iPad doesn't do fancy-pants stuff like italics) v Sharks, Chiefs, (Blues), (Crusaders), Highlanders & (Chiefs).

Chiefs 38pts, 11 played, 8 won bye next week then (Hurricanes), Bulls, (Highlanders), (Reds), Hurricanes.

Hurricanes should wrap up the NZ conference while the Chiefs sit out their bye & finish top of the overall table. Thanks to the broadcaster-driven format of the comp the Chiefs will likely finish 4th even without Cruden & Retallick.

Brumbies 32pts, 11 played, 6 won & (Stormers), (Lions), bye, Bulls, (Force), Crusaders left.
Waratahs 31pts, 10 played, 7 won & (Force), Sharks, Crusaders, (Lions), (Cheetahs), Reds to come.

With a game in hand you'd expect the 'tahs to win the Aus conference & probably finish 2nd overall. The Brumbies will find themselves scrapping it out for 5th & 6th with two of these outfits:

Bulls 34pts, 11 played, 7 won & bye, (Blues), (Chiefs), (Brumbies), (Rebels), Cheetahs to finish.
Stormers 30pts, 11 played, 7 won & Brumbies, bye, Rebels, Cheetahs, Lions & (Sharks) remaining.
Highlanders 33pts, 10 played, 7 won & (Lions), (Cheetahs), (Force), Chiefs, (Hurricanes), (Blues) left.

Whoever prevails in the SA conference should finish 3rd overall & that'll proably be the Stormers given the Bulls are yet to play outside of SA & history suggests they'll struggle in Australasia. The Clan have a game in hand & provided they remain injury-free should make the 6.

Projected Top-6:

1. Hurricanes
2. Waratahs
3. Stormers
4. Chiefs
5. Highlanders
6. Brumbies

History tells us that >90% of playoffs are won by the home side & that no SA team has ever won a SF in Australasia so I'm picking a Hurricanes v Waratahs GF in front of 15,000-odd bandwagon-jumping Wellingtonians plus the 10,000-odd who've kept the faith these past 19 title-less seasons. I'll be thinking of you on GF day @Dan54 :)

Well that's my 2-kiwi-cents worth, maybe next week we could get a Saffa perspective?
 

Hugh Jarse

Rocky Elsom (76)
Staff member
Bonus Points proving to be decisive. If Rebels win their next game, they will have the same win/loss record as the Ponies after the same number of games played. Lions currently have the same win/loss as the Ponies yet languish in 8th place not 3rd.

With 2 wins from 11 games, Auckland Blues may BP their way out of the all important home ground advantage for the Wooden Spoon match.
 

Benaud

Tom Lawton (22)
I'm happy to lock in all 3 kiwi sides and Tahs. Stormers/Bulls/Brumbies playing for 2 spots (3rd and 6th), so 1 will face Tahs in SYD with winner to face the best kiwi side.

I'm leaning towards the kiwis this year. Whole conference a few levels above the others. Which one is harder. Said Chiefs at the start. They'll do.
 

Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
Cheetahs have just dealt the Stormers a death blow. The Stormers had to win that game to get second and it was very winnable. Now they'll be 3rd and can only get one home game before having to travel. They'll have to win two games away to win the champions tag and that's a bridge too far.
 

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Inter-conference stats (excluding last night):

SA teams 80% v Aus
NZ 69% v SA
NZ 67% v Aus

NZ 68% v Aus + SA
SA 52% v Aus + NZ
Aus 29% v NZ + SA

EDIT (incorporating @Cylo's reply below):

NZ 58.1% in all matches
SA 50.9%
Aus 40.7%
 

cyclopath

George Smith (75)
Staff member
Inter-conference stats (excluding last night):

SA teams 80% v Aus
NZ 69% v SA
NZ 67% v Aus

NZ 68% v Aus + SA
SA 52% v Aus + NZ
Aus 29% v NZ + SA
It is a glaring set of data. From 54 games, Aus teams have 22 wins, from 55 NZ have 32, and SA have 28.
 
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