Super Rugby 2016 Top Eights

[waiopehu oldboy]

With the changes SANZAAR have made to the structure of Super Rugby I thought it might be interesting to track, week by week, the Top Eight in terms of "raw" table points/ points differential, and according to the the format of the comp.

Top 8 - by table points/ points differential
1. Brumbies 5 +42
2. Sharks 5 +35
3. Stormers 5 +24
4. Waratahs 5 +20
5. Lions 5 +13
6. Chiefs 4 +6*
7. Rebels 4 +6*
8. Blues 4 +2

* Chiefs 6th by virtue of scoring more points (I think)

Now as we all know, the format of the comp demands that we first rank the four conference leaders according to where they stand relative to each other, then the third-ranked African & three next-ranked Australasian teams, also according to where they stand relative to each other. Alrigty, then, here's your

Official Top Eight:
Conference leaders:
1. Brumbies - Aus
2. Sharks - Africa 2
3. Stormers - Africa 1
4. Chiefs - NZ
Wild cards:
5. Waratahs - Aust
6. Lions - Africa
7. Rebels - Aust
8. Blues - Aust

More than happy for any errors or omissions to be pointed out & to modify tables accordingly.

 

[Highlander35]

New Zealand can keep the Blues WOB! We don't want them!

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Aust = Australasia (& there's plenty of kiwis who'd tell you Auckland may as wel be a foreign country )

 

[Highlander35]

Ah. Didn't pick that from the wildcards. Knows just enough to be dangerous (or rather, make a fool of himself!) seems to apply for me here!

 

[Lindommer]

Might be best to use A'asian in the revised list.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^^^^^^^^^^ might use NZA & SAAJ

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

"Raw data" Top Eight:

1. Brumbies 9 points, differential +59
2. Sharks 9, +39
3. Stormers 9, +34
4. Lions 9, +17
5. Force 5, +10
6. Crusaders 5, +9
7. Waratahs 5, +3
8. Chiefs 5, +2

Official Top Eight:
1. Brumbies - Aus Conference leader
2. Sharks - Africa 2
3. Stormers - Africa 1
4. Crusaders - NZ
5. Lions - Africa wildcard
6. Force - Aust/NZ
7. Waratahs - Aust/NZ
8. Chiefs - Aust/NZ

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

"Raw" Top 8:
1. Brumbies 13 pts, PD +76
2. Sharks 13, +44
3. Chiefs 10, +36
4. Stormers 10, +29
5. Highlanders 9, +18
6. Lions 9, -2
7. Rebels 8, -12
8. Crusaders 5, +9

As it happens the Official Top 8 is identical: Brumbies, Sharks, Chiefs & Stormers lead their respective Conferences; Lions are third in the Africa Group; Highlanders, Rebels & Crusaders third to fifth in the Australasian group.

Historically the home team wins ~70% of matches but that's not the case this year:

Round 1: Home 4-5 Away
Round 2: 5-3
Round 3: 2-5
Totals: 11-13 (45.83%, surely an all-time low)

Not enough inter-Conference games yet to produce anything meaningful (inasmuch as it can be meaningful), possibly by week five some interesting data may emerge............

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

As with last week the Top 8 by table points & points differential is identical to the Top 8 by Group & Conference position:

1. Sharks 15/ +44/ Africa 2 Conference leader
2. Stormers 14/ +49/ Africa 1 Conference leader
3. Chiefs 14/ +40/ NZ Conference leader
4. Brumbies 13/ +56/ Australian Conference leader
5. Highlanders 13/ +22/ 3rd in Australasian Group
6. Lions 13/ +15/ 3rd in African Group
7. Rebels 13/ +14/ 4th in Australasian Group
8. Crusaders 10/ +42/ 5th in Australasian Group

Gotta say that by now I was expecting an anomaly or two, quite pleased that it's not the case (yet )

Home teams recorded four wins & Away teams three this week with two draws, so overall the season count is now 15-15 with two draws.

Still not enough inter-Conference matches to make for any meaningful stats, at this rate it may be Round Six or Seven before it's worth mentioning...............

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Official Top Eight after Round Five:

1. Chiefs - NZ Conference leader
2. Stormers - Africa 1 Conference leader
3. Brumbies - Australian Conference leader
4. Sharks - Africa 2 Conference leader
5. Highlanders - Australasian wildcard
6. Hurricanes - Australasian wildcard
7. Crusaders - Australasian wildcard
8. Lions - African wildcard

Highlanders are third on Table Points so a bit of an anomaly there but so far no legitimate Top Eight side has had to be relegated.

Just two home teams won this week, season count is now an astonishing Home 17-21 Away (two draws). Gotta be some kinda record, that.

Inter-conference games getting to the point where the stats might actually tell as something but I'll give it another week.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Official Top Eight after Round Five:

1. Chiefs - NZ Conference leader
2. Stormers - Africa 1 Conference leader
3. Brumbies - Australian Conference leader
4. Sharks - Africa 2 Conference leader
5. Highlanders - Australasian wildcard
6. Hurricanes - Australasian wildcard
7. Crusaders - Australasian wildcard
8. Lions - African wildcard

Highlanders are third on Table Points so a bit of an anomaly there but so far no legitimate Top Eight side has had to be relegated.

Just two home teams won this week, season count is now an astonishing Home 17-21 Away (two draws). Gotta be some kinda record, that.

Inter-conference games getting to the point where the stats might actually tell as something but I'll give it another week.

Don't be so modest.

 

[Hawko]

This year the Stormers play NO NZ teams until the finals. If they don't top their group and the SA conference this year then the stewards should be called in!

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Don't be so modest.

Oh all right then:

NZ v Africa 5/6 83%
NZ v Aus 4/6 & a draw 67%
Aus v Africa 2/4 50%
Africa v Aus 2/4 50%
Aus v NZ 1/6 & a draw 17%
Africa v NZ 1/6 17%

NZ v others 9/12 & a draw 75%
Aus 3/10 & a draw 30%
Africa 3/10 30%

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

I think we can pretty much write off the Kings (0 points), Sunwolves (2), Reds (4) & Force (5) as QF contenders. The six teams still in touch with the Top Eight are playing each other this week:

9. Rebels (13) v 10. Waratahs (10) loser will struggle to regain touch, winner can probably only afford one more loss.
11. Bulls (10) v 14. Cheetahs (6) Bulls will struggle to regain touch if they lose, Cheetahs must win or they're gone for the season (& even if they win are only another loss away from elimination).
12. Jaguares (7) v 13. Blues (7) loser is goooooone, winner is one more loss away from being so.

 

[Ozee316]

Yes the form top 8 has already formed on the table. Positions within that will now become important.

The Jaguares and Sunwolves have already list too many games even if by close margins. The Blues are in the strongest pool and cannot hope to overtake the other information NZ teams. The Reds and Force once again have started their seasons with too many losses. Both teams looked competitive but not able to finish games.

It's a little sad for their fans when hopes are gone after literally a month of the season.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ I'm still hopeful that by the time the June Test Window rolls around there'll be ~12 teams in contention for the QF & that at least the two Australasian conf winners will be in some doubt (Africa 1 already looks a forgone conclusion).

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

For the first time this season we have a team not ranked in the Top 8 by table points/ games won/ points differential promoted to the Official Top 8, that being the Lions who are 9th by the former metric but officially 8th as the African wildcard.

TOP 8 AFTER ROUND 6

by Table points/ wins/ points differential (Official ranking):

1. Chiefs 24/ 5/ 108 (1)
2. Highlanders 22/ 5/ 58 (5)
3. Stormers 18/ 4/ 54 (2)
4. Crusaders 18/ 4/ 53 (6)
5. Brumbies 17/ 4/ 38 (3)
6. Rebels 17/ 4/ -6 (7)
7. Sharks 16/ 3/ 39 (4)
8. Hurricanes 15/ 3/ 18 (9)

Official:

1. Chiefs NZ Conference leader (1)
2. Stormers Africa 1 Conference leader (3)
3. Brumbies Australia Conference leader (5)
4. Sharks Africa 2 Conference leader (7)
5. Highlanders Australasian wildcard (2)
6. Crusaders Australasian wildcard (4)
7. Rebels Australasian wildcard (6)
8. Lions African wildcard (9: 14 points, 3 wins)

Consecutive clean sweeps for the NZ sides makes for some mind-boggling inter-Conference stats:

NZ v Africa 7/8 88%
NZ v Australia 6.5/8 81%
Australia v Africa 2/4 50%
Africa v Australia 2/4 50%
Australia v NZ 1.5/6 19%
Africa v NZ 1/8 13%

NZ v other 13.5/16 84%
Australia v other 3.5/12 29%
Africa v other 3/12 25%

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

The Official Top 8 again comprises the same teams as the "raw data" one, but things are starting to get messy with both the Lions (7th to 3rd) & Brumbies (8th to 4th) being promoted up the order. Worth noting that in the process the Lions have leap-frogged the Bulls & that the Rebels have the same Table Points & Matches Won as the Brumbies, only their negative Points Differential keeping them in ninth.


TOP EIGHTS AFTER ROUND 7

By Table Points/ Games Won/ Points Differential (Official Ranking)

1. Chiefs 29/ 6/ 114 (1)
2. Stormers 23/ 5/ 81 (2)
3. Highlanders 23/ 5/ 57 (5)
4. Crusaders 22/ 5/ 54 (6)
5. Hurricanes 20/ 4/ 36 (7)
6. Bulls 19/ 4/ 36 (8)
7. Lions 18/ 4/ 24 (3)
8. Brumbies 17/ 4/ 38 (4)
9. Rebels 17/ 4/ -6 (9)

Official Rankings

1. Chiefs: NZ Conference leader
2. Stormers: Africa 1 Conference leader
3. Lions: Africa 2 Conference leader
4. Brumbies: Australia Conference leader
5. Highlanders: Australasia wildcard
6. Crusaders: Australasia wildcard
7. Hurricanes: Australasia wildcard
8. Bulls: Africa wildcard

HOME & AWAY STATS

Home teams have won four from seven in both Rounds 6 & 7 but overall still trail Away winners, 25-27 (two matches drawn).

INTER-CONFERENCE STATS

NZ v Africa 9/10 (90%)
NZ v Australia 7.5/10 (75%)
Australia v Africa 2/4 (50%)
Africa v Australia 2/4 (50%)
Australia v NZ 2.5/10 (25%)
Africa v NZ 1/10 (10%)

NZ v others 16.5/20 (83%)
Australia v others 4.5/14 (32%)
Africa v others 3/14 (21%)

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

The "raw data" & Official Top 8's still comprise the same teams but as with last week the Lions (7th to 3rd) & Brumbies (8th to 4th) are promoted under the Conference leader provision, as do the Stormers (4th to 2nd).


TOP EIGHTS AFTER ROUND 8

By Table Points/ Games Won/ Points Differential (Official Ranking)

1. Chiefs 29/ 6/ 114 (1)
2. Crusaders 27/ 6/ 71 (5)
3. Hurricanes 25/ 5/ 61 (6)
4. Stormers 24/ 5/ 74 (2)
5. Highlanders 23/ 5/ 57 (7)
6. Bulls 23/ 5/ 55 (8)
7. Lions 22/ 5/ 31 (3)
8. Brumbies 21/ 5/ 44 (4)

Official Rankings

1. Chiefs: New Zealand Conference leader
2. Stormers: Africa 1 Conference leader
3. Lions: Africa 2 Conference leader
4. Brumbies: Australian Conference leader
5. Crusaders: Australasian wildcard
6. Hurricanes: Australasian wildcard
7. Highlanders: Australasian wildcard
8. Bulls: African wildcard

HOME & AWAY

Home teams have now won more matches than Away teams, 30-29 with two draws thanks to a 5-2 Round 8.

INTER-CONFERENCE STATS

NZ v Africa 11/12 92%
NZ v Australia 8.5/11 77%
Africa v Australia 3/5 60%
Australia v Africa 2/5 40%
Australia v NZ 2.5/11 23%
Africa v NZ 1/12 8%

NZ v others 19.5/23 85%
Australia v others 4.5/16 28%
Africa v others 4/17 24%

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Tables look very much as they did last week, but with the Rebels now on top of the Australian Conference (albeit by just one Table point):

By Table Points/ Games Won/ Points Differential (Official Ranking):

1. Chiefs 33/ 7/ 115 (1)
2. Crusaders 32/ 7/ 97'(5)
3. Stormers 28/ 6/ 92 (2)
4. Lions 27/ 6/ 66 (3)
5. Hurricanes 26/ 5/ 60 (6)
6. Highlanders 24/ 5/ 56 (7)
7. Bulls 23/ 5/ 55 (8)
8. Rebels 22/ 5/ -9 (4)

Official Rankings:

1. Chiefs: New Zealand Conference leader
2. Stormers: Africa 1 Conference leader
3. Lions: Africa 2 Conference leader
4. Rebels: Australian Conference leader
5. Crusaders: Australasian wildcard
6. Hurricanes: Australasian wildcard
7. Highlanders: Australasian wildcard
8. Bulls: African wildcard

HOME v AWAY

A 5-3 weekend sees the Aways regain the lead 34-33.

INTER-CONFERENCE STATS

NZ v Africa 11/13 (85%)
NZ v Aus 9.5/12 (79%)
Africa v Aus 4/7 (57%)
Aus v Africa 3/7 (43%)
Aus v NZ 2.5/12 (21%)
Africa v NZ 2/13 (15%)

NZ v others 20.5/25 (82%)
Africa v others 6/20 (30%)
Australia v others 5.5/19 (29%)