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The Climate Change Thread

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Bruwheresmycar

Nicholas Shehadie (39)
Yea, I was going to say because you have even directly linked Watt's blog in here before!

I'm just saying the people who want to bump this thread with crap they find on WUWT should spend some time making up their mind before they post.

Is the global temperature rising? (yes/no)

If yes, then you can post fringe theories to climate change without problem.

If no, then you shouldn't even go to that step. You should stick to articles regarding the temperature and how you think scientists are faking data.

People who post both kinds of arguments are committing numerous logical fallacies and probably confusing the hell out of any lurkers.
 

Bruwheresmycar

Nicholas Shehadie (39)
I read the Forbes article, he doesn't seem to have anything of real substance. His argument basically boils down to "a tiny portion of the data is questionable therefore the IPCC is wrong and greenhouse gas pollution might or might not lead to bad consequences" .

He reckons he could get 97% of skeptics to agree with the question, but plenty of skeptics disagree with him and still attack the temperature record as some kind of fraud. So I'm not even sure if he would be correct there.
 

Scotty

David Codey (61)
My skim read identified that the high peaks didn't melt as much as expected in an 8 year period but that period is acknowledged as too small a sample from which to draw any real conclusions. The lower peaks were melting in accordance with expectations. The net change is that instead of 30cm to 100cm sea rises by 2100, we're looking at 25cm to 95cm.

That doesn't sound particularly good to me.

That is pretty much the summary except they also said the previous predictions were based on dodgy methods.
 

Bruwheresmycar

Nicholas Shehadie (39)
That is pretty much the summary except they also said the previous predictions were based on dodgy methods.

Yea, "dodgy methods".

The "dodgy method" was not having access to all the Himalayan glaciers. Previous studies on the Himalayan glaciers were based on ones at lower altitude, because they didn't have access to ones at very high altitudes. However, satellites used in this nature study could obviously access higher altitude glaciers - which haven't been melting as fast as lower altitudes for reasons explained in the paper.

Anyway, I'm glad everyone in this thread accepts the result of nature's paper. And concludes there are massive losses of glaciers/ice sheets worldwide. So the next question is, what is causing it?

Potholer54 covers this story in his newest video. Pointing out how this "No loss of Himalayan ice" story is one massive misrepresentation of what the paper actually said. Seriously, why would anyone do a report on this paper and not mention the key point it is making? Billions of tons of ice is melting every year. More importantly, why didn't our resident climate experts Anthony Watts and Andrew Bolt pick up on this? Instead they just fed this misinformation to their extremely gullible audience.

Anyway, here is the video for anyone interested:

 

Cutter

Nicholas Shehadie (39)
That is pretty much the summary except they also said the previous predictions were based on dodgy methods.

Scotty, once again you demonstrate an uncanny ability to choose an irrelevant point with which to attempt to distort the debate.
 

Karl

Bill McLean (32)
I read the Forbes article, he doesn't seem to have anything of real substance. His argument basically boils down to "a tiny portion of the data is questionable therefore the IPCC is wrong and greenhouse gas pollution might or might not lead to bad consequences" .

He reckons he could get 97% of skeptics to agree with the question, but plenty of skeptics disagree with him and still attack the temperature record as some kind of fraud. So I'm not even sure if he would be correct there.


I don't think it boils down to that at all.
 

Cutter

Nicholas Shehadie (39)
I don't think it boils down to that at all.

His premise is this: "Even though they say they're certain, we can't be certain they're certain. We, on the other hand, are certain they shouldn't be certain. We're not certain of anything beyond that."

Which takes us back to the video Sully posted a few pages back:


Are you getting dizzy Karl?
 

Karl

Bill McLean (32)
Yea, I was going to say because you have even directly linked Watt's blog in here before!

I'm just saying the people who want to bump this thread with crap they find on WUWT should spend some time making up their mind before they post.

Is the global temperature rising? (yes/no)

If yes, then you can post fringe theories to climate change without problem.

If no, then you shouldn't even go to that step. You should stick to articles regarding the temperature and how you think scientists are faking data.

People who post both kinds of arguments are committing numerous logical fallacies and probably confusing the hell out of any lurkers.

Its a thread about climate change. Some posts are just meant to provoke discussion.That's why a forum exists right?

And when I said I was kidding - I meant about going to that website you hate and throwing up all sorts of links. If I linked his site before, it would have been in something I quoted from somewhere else.

Your reductive reasoning (Is the global temp rising? If yes/If no) is the real logical fallacy, as is your leap to trivialize opposition by suggesting that its all about a paranoid delusion that scientists are faking data. And the funny thing is that an answer to the question "Is global temperature rising" is not even as easy to answer as you suggest. Over what period? Based on which data? As part of a long term trend or some shorter period? Shown as a linear trend in a cyclic system?

Then you need to ask whether the predicted warming is an accurate prediction (and there is plenty of evidence it isn't) and if the predicted dire consequences are accurate as well. There is a big difference between the science and the computer modeled predictions of what will happen in the future.

Here's another link to an article by Warren Meyer, who I actually find to be quite logical and balanced.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/warrenm...the-science-of-the-climate-skeptics-position/
 

Karl

Bill McLean (32)
His premise is this: "Even though they say they're certain, we can't be certain they're certain. We, on the other hand, are certain they shouldn't be certain. We're not certain of anything beyond that."

Which takes us back to the video Sully posted a few pages back:



Are you getting dizzy Karl?

Why do you guys insist on trying to reduce a well expressed and detailed statement of position to a few pithy lines that trivializes the original content and seeks to ridicule it by reference only to your own inaccurate and absurd reduction? Are the contents as originally expressed a little too complex so you need to boil it down to some sort of sound byte that you can wrap your head around?
 

Karl

Bill McLean (32)
Which takes us back to the video Sully posted a few pages back:



Are you getting dizzy Karl?

I have not watched all of this yet. I will post thoughts and observations as I go

2.36 in and it seems that his initial premise is too simple and limiting. Is GCC happening - Yes or No. What about How bad is it going to be? What contribution is Man making to it and how much is natural variability?

3.41 - His True/Col A scenario is interesting. Did we avoid a global recession and have a smiley face and the world is just "different" because the predictions were correct? Assumptions like this invalidate his reasoning.

4.33 - his rant about the catastrophes - I don't think any of the even mildly credible alarmists go anywhere near as far as he does, and the same can be said probably in relation to the opposite extreme position he puts forward.

5.28 - Our future will not fall roughly in one of your boxes. Those boxes are constructed with absurd oversimplification and ridiculous overstatement. There is no valid way to add complexity or mid-grounds to this sort of model or thought construct. It relies entirely on this logically fallacious simplicity.

6.03 - Lottery ticket A - "a different but liveable world" is created from a global depression because the bad things DID happen. Just because the money and cost and regulatory burden etc was "money well spent" suddenly there is no Global Depression? In A/False, there is no catastrophic consequences from the warming (because there isn't any or less than predicted) and we have a global depression and it's horrible. In A/True we have no catastrophic consequences from warming (because the money stopped it) and it's "different bu liveable". Makes no sense at all in the context of his own logic.

6.33 - What would the cost of that mistake be? (ie doing nothing) - "the end of the world". Compared to a global depression. A few years of economic hardship compared to complete catastrphe that he built up earlier to sound like a borderline extinction event then quietly backs away from that around 7 minutes with the line "the species will still be here" or words to that effect. He's building it up for his conclusion.

7.20 - it's going to happen in the next 10 to 20 years. Bookmark this for one of those "prediction fail" threads in 2022.

8.00 - and there it is. Because B/True is SO outrageously bad, and because you can't say with absolute certainty that it won't happen, the ONLY choice must be column A. No need to talk about it any more. The debate really is over. Or not so much over, as irrelevant.

8.46 - Lets turn it into a chain mail so the weight of the wave of idiots clicking and sending can drown out the screaming errors that begin almost as soon as this guy starts talking.
 

Karl

Bill McLean (32)
Which part is wrong Karl? That article was about uncertainty.


You can't reduce the various points this guy makes to a one liner and think you've accurately represented his views. It's silly to think you can.
 

barbarian

Phil Kearns (64)
Staff member
Cutter and Karl please cut it out. Your little tiff is leaking into other threads and giving everyone the shits. I don't care who started it and why. No more personal shit from either of you or we will have to take action.
 

Bruwheresmycar

Nicholas Shehadie (39)
The central point of my post (that you haven't really addressed) is that people shouldn't be hypocrites. It seems you object to that?

Its a thread about climate change. Some posts are just meant to provoke discussion.That's why a forum exists right?

People in this thread constantly questioning the temperature record and then posting all sorts of theories to explain the recent warming is not thought provoking, it is nothing short of intellectually dishonest and utterly confusing behavior that does nothing but put all rational debate to a complete stop.


And when I said I was kidding - I meant about going to that website you hate and throwing up all sorts of links. If I linked his site before, it would have been in something I quoted from somewhere else.


Every single link/argument you've posted over the last few pages has been posted by Anthony Watts first. If you aren't getting your information from him or a blog that repeats everything he posts (ie Andrew Bolt's blog). Then where are you getting it? And why does he post them all first?


Your reductive reasoning (Is the global temp rising? If yes/If no) is the real logical fallacy,

Which one? Take a pick and we'll see: http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/

as is your leap to trivialize opposition by suggesting that its all about a paranoid delusion that scientists are faking data.

If the global temperature is not rising, despite every study on the subject concluding just that. Either they have made some unbelievable massive mistake, or they are flat out lying to us. So you are right, my quote should have said:

"If no, then you shouldn't even go to that step. You should stick to articles regarding the temperature and how you think scientists are faking data - or how they have made an insanely huge mistake. Which, if you correctly identify, will make you worthy of a nobel prize. "

And the funny thing is that an answer to the question "Is global temperature rising" is not even as easy to answer as you suggest. Over what period? Based on which data? As part of a long term trend or some shorter period? Shown as a linear trend in a cyclic system?

You know perfectly well what we all mean, this is the "climate change" thread right? Since the industrial era rising greenhouse gas levels have contributed largely to the rising temperatures, is how the theory goes...



Then you need to ask whether the predicted warming is an accurate prediction (and there is plenty of evidence it isn't) and if the predicted dire consequences are accurate as well. There is a big difference between the science and the computer modeled predictions of what will happen in the future.

Ok, but that hasn't nothing to do with my post.


Here's another link to an article by Warren Meyer, who I actually find to be quite logical and balanced.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/warrenm...the-science-of-the-climate-skeptics-position/

This is exactly what I am talking about. 1 minute I'm being told I'm not skeptical enough of global temperature records. The next you are telling me to read that guy's blog:


The first theory is that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels (approximately what we might see under the more extreme emission assumptions for the next century) will lead to about a degree Celsius of warming. Though some quibble over the number – it might be a half degree, it might be a degree and a half – most skeptics, alarmists and even the UN’s IPCC are roughly in agreement on this fact.

You post conflicting information all the time. If skeptics actually believed what this guy says, they wouldn't have posted the links they have done over the last 5 pages. It doesn't make any sense. How am I supposed to adopt your view if it will just cause me to have cognitive dissonance.

I don't even understand that guy's argument. He thinks if the temperature rises as predicted it wont have much bad feedback, which is contrary to what all the science is saying. On what grounds does he think changing the climate as predicted will not have bad consequences? Or is his central claim, as I stated above: That because a tiny portion of the data is questionable the IPCC is wrong?. His arugment is all over the place and by the end sure enough he is trying to discredit the IPCC and contradicting things he said earlier...

I'm a skeptic so I can't hold conflicting positions, which is precisely why I can't become a climate science "skeptic/realist/denier".

Finally, back to my post. It is surprising you disagree with me in that people shouldn't post conflicting information on this thread. In any other thread on GAGR I think that rule would apply.
 

Karl

Bill McLean (32)
People in this thread constantly questioning the temperature record and then posting all sorts of theories to explain the recent warming is not thought provoking, it is nothing short of intellectually dishonest and utterly confusing behavior that does nothing but put all rational debate to a complete stop.

That's not what I do, and in any event, its not up to you to dictate how this thread is managed or how people chose to engage. If it's too hard for you to follow, stop trying.

Every single link/argument you've posted over the last few pages has been posted by Anthony Watts first. If you aren't getting your information from him or a blog that repeats everything he posts (ie Andrew Bolt's blog). Then where are you getting it? And why does he post them all first?

I don't know what Andrew Watts puts on his blog or when, but if he's a blogger in this space it stands to reason he'll probably cover the filed pretty broadly and he may well get there before I do. So what. All of my sources are apparent from the links themselves. How many of those were links to Andrew Watts blog? None. And this thread goes on for a lot more than the last few pages, so it's a ridiculously small sample size in any event.

Which one? Take a pick and we'll see: http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/

I don't care, you pick one. You oversimplfy by reduction and then suggest that one of your conclusions must be right. It's 3rd grade stuff.

If the global temperature is not rising, despite every study on the subject concluding just that. Either they have made some unbelievable massive mistake, or they are flat out lying to us. So you are right, my quote should have said:

"If no, then you shouldn't even go to that step. You should stick to articles regarding the temperature and how you think scientists are faking data - or how they have made an insanely huge mistake. Which, if you correctly identify, will make you worthy of a nobel prize. "

What has happened in the last 10 years? And you talk it up again - now you must be right unless it's fraud or a mistake so huge that there could be no plausible way they could have made it and only a lunatic denier would try to argue they did. Simply put, the IPCC scientists seem to have been over-confident in their ability to accurately predict the future behaviour of a complex system when they knew or ought to have known that they had a far from perfect grasp of all of the issues, particularly feedbacks and natural variability. If it's not rising it's because they have made inaccurate predictions, or if it is rising, but not in line with catastrophic predictions, the same holds.

You know perfectly well what we all mean, this is the "climate change" thread right? Since the industrial era rising greenhouse gas levels have contributed largely to the rising temperatures, is how the theory goes...

No, the theory goes, according to AGW advocates, that there is going to be massive and near term warming that will have a wide range of devastating environmental, social, economic and other effects unless we act drastically and urgently because man emitted carbon dioxide is the primary driver of the predicted rise in temperatures. The trouble is that the real world isn't co-operating by producing the results predicted and more and more very credible and well qualified scientists are coming out and wrecking the perfect perception of your supposed 97% consensus that says the science is settled and the debate is over. That seems to make you guys snarky.

Then you need to ask whether the predicted warming is an accurate prediction (and there is plenty of evidence it isn't) and if the predicted dire consequences are accurate as well. There is a big difference between the science and the computer modeled predictions of what will happen in the future.​
Ok, but that hasn't nothing to do with my post.

Sorry, did I do off topic? How inconvenient. I'm saying, you don't need to deny aspects of the basic science of GW because that's not even the damn issue. The issue is that having a handle on one part of the problem doesn't mean it's the only piece of the puzzle and until you understand how the whole thing works you don't have a hope in hell of making an accurate prediction. Now the IPCC is so invested in it's position, it's not even looking for the truth any more, it's just defending a position.

You post conflicting information all the time. If skeptics actually believed what this guy says, they wouldn't have posted the links they have done over the last 5 pages. It doesn't make any sense. How am I supposed to adopt your view if it will just cause me to have cognitive dissonance.

Your cognitive dissonance is not my problem. You'll never adopt my view. I am quite comfortable reconciling the various different details because while some might be inconsistent, there is a theme that connects them - and that theme is the non-acceptance of the IPCC line that the science is settled, that all or nearly all of the warming is a result of man made co2 emissions and that the IPCC predictions in relation to the amount of warming we will see or the catastrophic near term effects of that warming are accurate.

As for posting conflicting information and your view that it should be banned or against the rules - this is a debate. If I see something that attacks the other sides position for reasons that I may not necessarily subscribe to, that does not mean I should be somehow restricted from putting it up here for comment and discussion.
 

Bruwheresmycar

Nicholas Shehadie (39)
You are moving the goalposts of the discussion because you don't actually have any objections to what I originally said: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_the_goalposts#As_logical_fallacy

I didn't say anything about future predictions made by scientists or the IPCC. I said that people who don't think the temperature is rising shouldn't post theories explaining the rise in temperature. You can't object to this statement by saying future predictions might be wrong. It doesn't make any sense to.

Now you are defending your right to post conflicting information... I never said there should be a rule against it, I just said it harms rational discussion on that topic.

Feel free to post conflicting information if you wish, it just got to the point in this thread where I felt this continuous trend should be mentioned. I get more and more confused about your positions every page. One minute I'm reading articles that based on the premise that scientists have correctly identified the cause of past climate change but have got their future predictions wrong. The next I'm reading about how their conclusions about climate change in the past are wrong.

Then when we highlight this fact we get lectured about random IPCC projections. This thread seems to be going downhill...
 

Bruwheresmycar

Nicholas Shehadie (39)
Close the thread if you guys think it is degrading the forum, we could probably find an actual science forum to discuss this at.
 
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