The Independents

[barbarian]

Was going to respond to something Scotty said on the NBN thread, but thought it probably deserved its own:

PS It wasn't Katter who changed the NBN to country first roll out. You can blame the other two independents for that - they are the ones that sold their souls for some taste of power. Katter stuck to his constituents and personal beliefs.

I disagree that the decision to side with Labor was the wrong one (not to mention that they 'sold their souls for power' which is rubbish), but now the worm is turning and the pressure is on more than ever.

What should Oakeshott and Windsor do? Stick to their guns and risk the government falling further or switching, which would trigger political chaos but is what their constituents arguably want.

I think whatever side they chose they were going to be in massive trouble at the next election, and I suspect they knew that as well.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Katter is funny to observe but "the woe is me, you bastards in the city don't care about the bush" cock and bull story gets old after a while. Windsor is fairly sensible (other than siding with the ALP), but Oakeshott is a loony tune. Seriously, does anything of any value ever come out of that blokes mouth? He makes Barnaby Joyce seem like the smartest man in Australia. He's in for an absolute spanking from his electorate at the next election. And to think he was pushing to be made speaker of the Reps.

 

[barbarian]

Really? I don't mind Oakshott, and tend to agree with him on most things. He actually seems to have a grasp of the bigger picture in politics, which is rare these days.

 

[Scotty]

Was going to respond to something Scotty said on the NBN thread, but thought it probably deserved its own:



I disagree that the decision to side with Labor was the wrong one (not to mention that they 'sold their souls for power' which is rubbish), but now the worm is turning and the pressure is on more than ever.

What should Oakeshott and Windsor do? Stick to their guns and risk the government falling further or switching, which would trigger political chaos but is what their constituents arguably want.

I think whatever side they chose they were going to be in massive trouble at the next election, and I suspect they knew that as well.

A few points in response:

1. Why do you suggest they should consider jumping ship now the 'worm is turning' when clearly their constituents wanting them to side with the Coalition in the first place? How can you disagree that their decision to side with Labor was wrong despite a) their constituents wanting them side with the coalition and b) the coalition smashing labor in the primary?

2. Surely changing now is an even worse decision. The disruption to our government would be immense.

3. Oakeshott, as you say was angling for speaker - he didn't care so much about the next election. Windsor is likely to retire before the next election, so therefore also doesn't care.


BH,

I also thought that Joyce was a looney tune at first, but the more I listen to him the more I realise he is just prone to the odd brain explosion. The man is right at the top in this country in regards to overall knowledge of several different political issues. I actually think he is extremely intelligent.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Scotty, I will agree that Barnaby has recently made some comments that show him a much better light. He also gets right up the nose of guys like Tony Jones on the ABC, which is amusing and commendable

 

[barbarian]

A few points in response:

1. Why do you suggest they should consider jumping ship now the 'worm is turning' when clearly their constituents wanting them to side with the Coalition in the first place? How can you disagree that their decision to side with Labor was wrong despite a) their constituents wanting them side with the coalition and b) the coalition smashing labor in the primary?

2. Surely changing now is an even worse decision. The disruption to our government would be immense.

I didn't suggest they should consider it, but the prospect (however unrealistic it is) has been raised in the media recently. I probably didn't phrase that well enough, but I certainly agree with your second point that they cannot jump ship.

I think their decision to side with Labor was correct because in such a tight election the sitting government should be given the benefit of the doubt, for want of a better term. Much like in rugby, the side with the ball should be favoured in 50/50 decisions. It is better for stability, and is the right call as long as the party in government is not a total mess, which Labor wasn't.

The views of their constituents was largely irrelevant, because the fate of the whole nation was at stake. It wasn't a decision for the people of Lyne or New England to make.

 

[mark_s]

I think the way the independents went about communicating which party they would side with for the current term was very revealing and I am no Oakshot fan. I do think both he and Windsor are dead men walking regardless of when the next election is.

 

[Scotty]

So the side that had a massive swing against them, did a pretty average job in their first term and managed to swap leaders should get the 'benefit of the doubt' - just in case they can do better?

Think we will have to disagree on that one.

The views of their constituents was largely irrelevant, because the fate of the whole nation was at stake. It wasn't a decision for the people of Lyne or New England to make.

In that case it wasn't a decision for 2 (or 3 people) from those electorates to make either. By your rationale they should have forced another election.

 

[Rob42]

There's no chance that the independents will jump ship now - if anything, they could well have chosen Labor initially BECAUSE they were the weaker option, and less likely to go back to the polls if the relationship wasn't working out. There'd be a good chance they'd be dumped themselves in an election tomorrow.

No question though the pressure on them must be immense, with each side pushing them on every single issue. And endless lobbyists as well.

 

[barbarian]

So the side that had a massive swing against them, did a pretty average job in their first term and managed to swap leaders should get the 'benefit of the doubt' - just in case they can do better?

Think we will have to disagree on that one.

In that case it wasn't a decision for 2 (or 3 people) from those electorates to make either. By your rationale they should have forced another election.

Yes they had a swing against them, but in the end they still won just as many seats as the Liberals. There was also no evidence the Liberals would provide a substantially better government- the campaign was dire with neither party really inspiring voter support. I think the decision to side with Labor was right under the circumstances, but I think we will have to agree to disagree.

And yes I agree that it probably wasn't the independents decision to make. But another election would have hugely unpopular, so their hand was somewhat forced.

 

[Scotty]

I agree that there was no evidence that the Liberals could do any better, however, IMO the Labor government had been the worst in 20 years, with many failed programs and a lot of wastage of money (at a time where we couldn't afford to waste money). There was plenty of evidence to suggest that the Labor government was very poor, and that the Liberals would find it difficult to do worse than Labor. So on that basis I find it difficult to re-elect a government just to give them another try.

 

[ACT Crusader]

I think the way the independents went about communicating which party they would side with for the current term was very revealing and I am no Oakshot fan. I do think both he and Windsor are dead men walking regardless of when the next election is.

Batter up. Oh it's Barnaby....

Windsor isn't the greatest public communicator and if Joyce runs in New England its sure as hell going to be a public contest for that seat. Windsor holds a 20%+ advantage so it's going to be an interesting battle.

 

[chief]

If Barnaby Joyce joins the lower house, he will probably become leader of the Nationals. Barnaby as Deputy PM scares the hell out of me. It really does.

I like Tony Windsor, a true constituent MP (Moana Pasifika), Oakeshott leaves a lot to be desired though.

 

[matty_k]

The Libs/Nats only have themselves to blame with Oakeshot.
If they had treated my wife the way they did I wouldn't be too happy with dealing with them either.

 

[chief]

The Libs/Nats only have themselves to blame with Oakeshot.
If they had treated my wife the way they did I wouldn't be too happy with dealing with them either.

But the reality is, Oakeshott shouldn't have joined the Nats. He shares a very different ideology to them. I know they treated his wife like dirt, and I'd be bloody unforgiving.

 

[Scotty]

If Barnaby Joyce joins the lower house, he will probably become leader of the Nationals. Barnaby as Deputy PM scares the hell out of me. It really does.

I like Tony Windsor, a true constituent MP (Moana Pasifika), Oakeshott leaves a lot to be desired though.

Why? Apart from being a 'straight shooter', which is abnormal in federal politics, I think he actually has a lot to offer. He comes across as very intelligent with a large range of knowledge across various areas, and is prepared to stand by what he believes. He has even gone against Liberal wishes a few times in doing so.

I say more of the likes of him the better. He will smash Windsor if he stands against him.

 

[matty_k]

But the reality is, Oakeshott shouldn't have joined the Nats. He shares a very different ideology to them. I know they treated his wife like dirt, and I'd be bloody unforgiving.

He held the same ideology. It changed and he left.

 

[Nusadan]

Wasn't Windsor planning to retire at the next election?

 

[matty_k]

Not a clue on that one.

 

[Nusadan]

Read that Windsor threw his lot with the Labor as he wanted the NBN to go ahead, knowing full well his electorate would crucify him for doing so...but he was going to retire anyway, he was looking at the bigger picture rather than trying to please his voters.