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Ukraine

Discussion in 'Politics' started by boyo, Mar 4, 2014.

  1. boyo Paul McLean (56)

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  2. Hugh Jarse Rocky Elsom (76)

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    Didn't Ukraine "inherit" a large portion of the former Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal?

    If so, how desperate are they, how far with Putin push them, is the interim government stable and rational?

    Is Putin (and his hawks) stable and rational for that matter?
  3. JSRF10 Dick Tooth (41)

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    I would be surprised if anything the Ukraine got off the USSR still works!

    IMO the potential conflict is fuelled by Russia being wary of Ukraine joining NATO and their Black Sea bases having the ol Stars and Stripes hoisted up when the Russian lease ends (2040 I think). If Putin can agree some deal where his bases aren't included in any Ukraine/NATO deals and Crimea can become autonomous he'll pull his forces out.
  4. BPC Phil Hardcastle (33)

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    I think that the Ukrainian missile arsenal was removed after 94.

    Interestingly, Merkel has alleged told Obama that, having spoken to Putin, she is worried that his mind doesn't occupy the same reality as the rest of us.
  5. ChargerWA Mark Loane (55)

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    Talk about a potential cluster fuck.

    The scariest thing is that the United Russia party is the most ideologically sound party in Russia and they currently hold government by a wide margin. Individual Political association in Russia has largely been based on leader popularity until now, but there is a real swing under way as younger generations identify with the party that best represents their interests.

    But nationalism is still a strong force in Russia and the main opposition party are vocally supportive of a united Slavic nation.

    I doubt Putin will invade anywhere except Crimea, but if he does would the international community have political will to go to war over it? Unfortunately I would say yes.
  6. boyo Paul McLean (56)

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    Putin is considered a moderate FFS.
  7. Slim 293 Jason Little (69)

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    http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2014/03/02/crimea-for-the-crimeans/
  8. No4918 John Hipwell (52)

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    Clusterfuck indeed.

    Intervention is going to get very messy. They have two options; either let Russia take control of part of another country or start a war with one crazy mofo with China supporting him. The first would be a dangerous precedent to set, the second is just too crazy to contemplate. It is one thing to go into Iraq and Afghanistan and flex your muscles, against a country with a real army though?

    Diplomatic action is likely going to be the only way out. How would most Russian citizens feel about being isolated from the west? Putin will end up with a revolt of his own.
  9. Runner Nev Cottrell (35)

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    The people who are worried will be Poland , Hungary etc as they still have some Russian minorities. Sounds like Adolf and Austria and China and Tibet.
  10. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    If the people in Poland and Hungary have something to worry about then the entire world should be worried about WWIII.
  11. Slim 293 Jason Little (69)

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    It's the Ukraine that's currently overrun with Nazis...
  12. JSRF10 Dick Tooth (41)

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    They don't have a strategic naval base on the Black Sea which is what this is really about. If Russia can guarantee this bases future beyond its current lease they'll happily withdraw their troops from Crimea.
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  13. ChargerWA Mark Loane (55)

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    Which would be the best outcome for us. Russia just gave the Ukraine $15B so I'm pretty sure they can offer him a long term lease extension and consider it repayment. They will then be able to forge on ahead with membership to the EU.

    The rest of the world now needs to work quickly to tie up the other former soviet nations to the EU and destroy the hopes of the Russian movement who's goal is to see a reunited Soviet block.
  14. Slim 293 Jason Little (69)

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    The last thing the world needs is more western puppet states...
  15. USARugger John Thornett (49)

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    US sent a handful of F-15s over to Poland to begin helping Lithuania, etc patrol their air space. Turkey has also given permission for an unidentified-as-of-yet American warship to enter the Black Sea (not USS GHWB - it displaces too much water).

    Funny enough Russia may have legal ground to be occupying Crimea right now based on an agreement they signed with the Ukraine in 1997. Crimea also has a pretty huge ethnic Russian population and wasn't really all that supportive of the protests or joining the EU to begin with.

    Crimea is also already an autonomous parliamentary republic functioning within the borders of Ukraine anyway. They identify as Russians, not Ukrainians.

    Like JSRF said though, this is just a lot of posturing by Russia to get their hands on Sevastopol. It would be outrageously expensive/potentially impossible for them to build a similar warm, deep-water port. There's also implications here for Russia's fossil fuel industry.

    But, will Ukraine fight to keep Sevastopol for $$$ or just let Crimea effectively cede to Russia and solve the conflict and make all parties (relatively) happy?
  16. ChargerWA Mark Loane (55)

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    Who wants puppet states? We want dynamic democracy's fully engaged with the global economy.
  17. Slim 293 Jason Little (69)

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    Russia is not the enemy....

    Let's not pretend we're "saving" these countries....
  18. boyo Paul McLean (56)

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  19. Runner Nev Cottrell (35)

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    Of course not. It is a vibrant democracy spreading it's freedom guided processes via it friends in places like Syria.
    USARugger and ChargerWA like this.
  20. USARugger John Thornett (49)

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