Wallabies 2019 Thread

[Tomikin]

Yes, but it gives a skewed idea of how good a team might be if they almost never play the best team, and certainly not regularly.
I think Wales, Ireland and England are currently better than us, sure, but not so much I would think we can't beat them. But I think we're a 5th-6th ranked team as a baseline, with occasional blips to around 3rd.

I hope/feel this year's wallabies team will be better then last years, something in me feels that we have a core of players who have gone up a gear or hitting some form, well at least the forward pack.. If we can get that dominance or at least compete we will be right in every game.. Just my feeling ATM (probably based on the fact I haven't seen a wallabies game in 6 months lol )

 

[Derpus]

I hope/feel this year's wallabies team will be better then last years, something in me feels that we have a core of players who have gone up a gear or hitting some form, well at least the forward pack.. If we can get that dominance or at least compete we will be right in every game.. Just my feeling ATM (probably based on the fact I haven't seen a wallabies game in 6 months lol )

I get that feeling every year. It doesn't last long.

 

[TSR]

Haha - yes, there really is nothing like that early season optimism before a ball in test rugby has been kicked in anger.

This year will be our year - all those new guys are going to come in and be so much better than those losers they replaced.

And, if not, well it’s all Cheika’s fault.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Haha - yes, there really is nothing like that early season optimism before a ball in test rugby has been kicked in anger.

This year will be our year - all those new guys are going to come in and be so much better than those losers they replaced.

And, if not, well it’s all Cheika’s fault.

at least we won't be annihilated by the All Blacks within 15 minutes of the first game of the season this year.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Have to wait for Game 3 this time around!

 

[Derpus]

at least we won't be annihilated by the All Blacks within 15 minutes of the first game of the season this year.

It took until the second half actually

 

[Bobby Sands]

What's the logic though? That they have had a more successful season therefore almost all their players are better than every player from every other side?

Is Henry Speight going to make the squad because the Brumbies have had a really good season or are Koroibete and Naivalu going to be picked ahead of him because they are considered better wingers?

The Brumbies will have at least half the starting Wallabies forward pack and probably 2 bench forwards. This is where their dominance has really been.

I think the Brumbies will have the most of any team in the initial squad but it won't be by a long way.

My issue comes from the fact that the Wallabies have been woeful for so long now, full of Waratahs, and will little experimentation. I think many, although I might be wrong, in both QLD and ACT will agree with me.

We are constantly told these players are "our best options" but the evidence of opportunity for others to disprove that has not really taken place.

I hope that Samu, McAffrey, Isa, hell even Valentini displace Hanigan and Dempsey.

I hope Arnold, Philip etc replace Simmonds, Coleman and even Rodda and Loko if they are not playing well in the lead up.

I hope Lilo replaces Bernard... Happy for Bernard to be the back up.

I hope Banks replaces Kurtley.

I hope we have an all Brumbies front row, I want Dan to come into Wallabies camp and extend his work on the line-out. Not start from scratch under Cheika.

A Waratah I do think is of immense talent is Harry Johnson-Holmes, I think he deserves an opportunity to push out incumbents.

Ben Darwin has analysed successful teams across all sports, and the most important factor he has found is cohesion and combination.

"Talent is not necessarily portable."

The Brumbies deserve to be rewarded for their form and cohesion as a preference to individual players who might be considered individually better.

If you want to hear about Ben Darwin's analysis on cohesion in more depth see here:

 

[Braveheart81]

My issue comes from the fact that the Wallabies have been woeful for so long now, full of Waratahs, and will little experimentation. I think many, although I might be wrong, in both QLD and ACT will agree with me.

We are constantly told these players are "our best options" but the evidence of opportunity for others to disprove that has not really taken place.

I hope that Samu, McAffrey, Isa, hell even Valentini displace Hanigan and Dempsey.

I hope Arnold, Philip etc replace Simmonds, Coleman and even Rodda and Loko if they are not playing well in the lead up.

I hope Lilo replaces Bernard. Happy for Bernard to be the back up.

I hope Banks replaces Kurtley.

I hope we have an all Brumbies front row, I want Dan to come into Wallabies camp and extend his work on the line-out. Not start from scratch under Cheika.

A Waratah I do think is of immense talent is Harry Johnson-Holmes, I think he deserves an opportunity to push out incumbents.

Ben Darwin has analysed successful teams across all sports, and the most important factor he has found is cohesion and combination.

"Talent is not necessarily portable."

The Brumbies deserve to be rewarded for their form and cohesion as a preference to individual players who might be considered individually better.

Perception doesn't necessarily equal reality. If you look at some of our worst results last year there weren't actually that many Waratahs involved.

People think the team is constantly full of Waratahs but it is very often not the case. When we got flogged 40-12 in Auckland last year there were 3 Waratahs in the starting XV.

On average last season we had more Rebels in our starting XV than any other team. No one seems to complain there is bias towards them.

There's no doubt that there should be more Brumbies in the Wallabies squad this year than any other side. They should particularly dominate our tight 5 where I expect they will have 4 starters and one on the bench (Sio or Slipper).

The Rebels will be over-represented in the squad because they underachieved but they have a lot of talented players.

The Reds will probably be under-represented. Rodda and Kerevi are starting XV players and Tupou will be in the squad and in a tight battle for the reserve THP spot. LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) could be anywhere from starting 6 to not making the RWC squad. Aside from that we might not see any others make the RWC squad (Naivalu will be in the initial squad at least and Petaia might get a crack this year depending on his return from injury).

Last year was a disaster but it's also hard to argue that there were too many Waratahs being picked unfairly when they were the best team (and not overly impressive) in an otherwise disappointing Super Rugby season.

I think if you went through the numbers of players who played for the Wallabies last year compared to years before that with other coaches it would be comparable. If there wasn't enough experimentation last year there never is.

 

[Braveheart81]

For the record I think Dempsey and Hanigan will both make the initial squad. I think Hanigan deserves to be there based on 2019 form and Dempsey probably doesn't but will be there on past deeds. I don't think either will make the RWC squad.

From the Brumbies backrow I think Samu, Pocock and Valetini will make a 40 man squad and McCaffrey probably won't.

Like a lot of people I think the most likely starting backrow involves two Rebels (Jones and Naisarani).

 

[TSR]

But BH, the thing is that the majority of us aren’t against them being picked because they are Waratahs. We are against them being picked because they aren’t the best player in their spot.

I don’t deny there is a whole dialogue posted by many on here that they are being picked because they are Waratahs. Personally I do feel certain players benefited from their relationship with Cheika - although I also think that is the case with any coach.

But the pro/anti Waratah thing is really just a distraction when you get down to it.

Along the same lines - I don’t really see where the difference is between posters taking regular pot shots at certain NSW players to your consistent view of all of them through light blue glasses (or my view through red-tinted ones).

The underlying argument remains who are the best players to fill out the Wallabies and, on past performance, many of us are at least entitled to the view that we need to try some new cattle because the ones Cheika has been drafting are lower grade.

 

[Bobby Sands]

Like a lot of people I think the most likely starting backrow involves two Rebels (Jones and Naisarani).

I would not be unhappy if this was the case, has been my thinking all-season.

But given the way the Rebs finished, and the Ponies are powering on, my thoughts have shifted.

Luke Jones and Isa are both great though, and should both go to the World Cup.

 

[Braveheart81]

But BH, the thing is that the majority of us aren’t against them being picked because they are Waratahs. We are against them being picked because they aren’t the best player in their spot.

The underlying argument remains who are the best players to fill out the Wallabies and, on past performance, many of us are at least entitled to the view that we need to try some new cattle because the ones Cheika has been drafting are lower grade.

I agree with the last point and I think this year represents a substantially different situation to last year in terms of player availability in some positions where we were sorely lacking last year.

I think my point about perception not necessarily matching reality rings true though. I would guess that a lot of those most critical would suggest Hanigan was a constant feature last year when the reality was he started only 3 tests and played 8 in total.

 

[Benaud]

It's a moot point this year. Hooper, Foley and Beale are the only Tahs in the 23, and there's every chance none of them will start.

 

[TSR]

True BH. But on the flip side, Hanigan is the classic case of a guy who leaves Cheika open to accusations of favouritism.

Look - I know you like him, and you have posted numerous times how you think he has improved. I’ll also defend his original selection because, IMO the cupboard was very bare at the time and he’d had a good super rugby season (ignoring the fact that Fardy was on the outer).

But even though Hanigan has really struggled to make any meaningful impact at test level, Cheika has continued to pick him in the 23. And you defend it, consistently - even to the point of mentioning every chance you can how much he has improved this year. Good luck to you - it’s an opinion site - but the bias here isn’t all one way.

 

[Braveheart81]

True BH. But on the flip side, Hanigan is the classic case of a guy who leaves Cheika open to accusations of favouritism.

Look - I know you like him, and you have posted numerous times how you think he has improved. I’ll also defend his original selection because, IMO the cupboard was very bare at the time and he’d had a good super rugby season (ignoring the fact that Fardy was on the outer).

But even though Hanigan has really struggled to make any meaningful impact at test level, Cheika has continued to pick him in the 23. And you defend it, consistently - even to the point of mentioning every chance you can how much he has improved this year. Good luck to you - it’s an opinion site - but the bias here isn’t all one way.

Sure, I'll cop that. I agree completely that Hanigan hasn't made an impact at test level. I don't think he'll play a test this year.

It's a moot point this year. Hooper, Foley and Beale are the only Tahs in the 23, and there's every chance none of them will start.

I reckon this is exceedingly unlikely but each to their own.

I think 2-3 of them will start (Hooper will definitely start and be captain). I think Kepu, Simmons and Phipps will be somewhere between being in the 23 and being in the 31 man RWC squad. Robertson, Hanigan and Demspey will make the 40 man squad but unlikely any further.

 

[Braveheart81]

If 2015 is anything to go from, a squad will be named next week (maybe Thursday) if the Brumbies lose this weekend, otherwise after the final.​

 

[Derpus]

So, at best, 8 of the 40 man squad will be Tahs but likely no more than 3-4 in the starting 23.

Still too many Tahs?

 

[Benaud]

I reckon this is exceedingly unlikely but each to their own.

I think 2-3 of them will start (Hooper will definitely start and be captain). I think Kepu, Simmons and Phipps will be somewhere between being in the 23 and being in the 31 man RWC squad. Robertson, Hanigan and Demspey will make the 40 man squad but unlikely any further.

I'd say Kepu is the extra prop in the 31 but behind AAA/Tupou. Simmons seems like a stretch to make the 30 behind Arnold, Rodda, LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto), Philip and Coleman, Phipps even more so behind Genia, Powell and White, and the others I agree can only make the 40 man cut at best.

 

[Bobby Sands]

If Joe Powell is not at the very least ahead of Phipps, we are doing rugby wrong.

 

[Derpus]

I'd say Kepu is the extra prop in the 31 but behind AAA/Tupou. Simmons seems like a stretch to make the 30 behind Arnold, Rodda, LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto), Philip and Coleman, Phipps even more so behind Genia, Powell and White, and the others I agree can only make the 40 man cut at best.

Hrmmm