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Will Tony Abbott lead the Coalition at the next election?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Ali's Choice, Dec 8, 2011.


Will Tony Abbott lead the Coalition at the next election?

Yes x_votes 63.6%
No x_votes 36.4%
  1. Ali's Choice Jimmy Flynn (14)

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    I don't think he will. Despite the fact that his party still enjoys a 56% – 44% lead in the 2PP in the latest Newspoll, I think Abbott’s reign as Opposition leader won’t continue until the next Federal election. And if it does, then the ALP will be rejoicing.

    He's been an effective Opposition Leader for a couple of years, but he's done his dash. The public, and importantly the media, now see him for what he is, an overtly negative naysayer, completely bereft of positive ideas or policies.

    The public had grown weary of his negative opportunism. And the passing of the Carbon Tax, and then the MRRT through the House of Reps late in the year, further consolidated his decline. It's much easier to oppose measures such as these before they come into effect, much harder once they are law and people realise that the sky hasn't fallen in and towns like Whyalla haven't been wiped off the map as Tony said would happen.

    Coupled with these legislative wins for the ALP, there is a growing perception that the Coalition under Abbott lacks financial and economic credibility. The media has begun to focus on the Coalition’s $70 billion costings black hole. This scrutiny was only heightened last week when the accountancy firm entrusted to check the Coalition’s costings in the lead up to the 2010 election was fined by Institute of Chartered Accountants (ICA) for breaching professional standards. The Coalition played this down, but the perceptions count a lot in politics and the perception is that the Coalition lacks economic credibility.

    And then of course the Peter Slipper debacle was extremely damaging for Abbott's leadership. Not only was the perception that he had lost control over the LNP in QLD, but his shrill crusade for an early election seems to have been utterly futile. And Gillard is left looking more Prime Ministerial and less susceptible to the whims of the Independents.

    Despite his party’s continued strong standing I think Tony Abbott is actually hindering the Coalition politically. This is reflected in his consistently poor personal approval across all the major polls. And I don’t think it will take long until his partyroom recognises this and seeks change.
  2. chief John Solomon (38)

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    I see your point, but I'm unsure. Polls show Abbott is unpopular just as unpopular as Julia Gillard and that is pretty unpopular. If he gets into office, all the Labor party need to do is throw forward a good candidate and he could easily be beaten I would think.

    They won't go to Malcolm Turnbull, probably won't go to Joe Hockey either as he makes Wayne Swan look good (which isn't a complement to Wayne Swan).

    I would guess that it could be Scott Morrison or Andrew Robb or even Christopher Pyne. Take your pick I suppose. But there's no real front runner like the ALP have Kevin Rudd and Stephen Smith, and the Coalition used to have Alex Downer and Peter Costello who could easily take the reigns.


    I think he so urgently needs to get Arthur Sinodinos onto the front bench too, as well as Kelly O'Dwyer, and he needs to get rid of the old rubbish like Bronwyn Bishop and Eric Abetz and Kevin Andrews. Get some fresh talent injected into his front bench. I think every Liberal supporter would also agree with me that Joe Hockey so badly needs to go.
  3. Schadenfreude John Solomon (38)

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    No. He may be the person nominated to challenge for prime minister - but there's no leadership in him.
  4. Scarfman Knitter of the Scarf

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    I couldn't believe it when he became leader of the coalition, then I couldn't believe that he got as close as you can get to becoming PM. The bloke is a nutbag of the Tea Party order. Blinded by imaginary gods, innumerate and proud of it, and prepared to persecute refugees to win an election.

    In other words, don't ask me, what would I know.
    Schadenfreude likes this.
  5. cyclopath Nathan Sharpe (72)

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    I'll have a go.
    Christopher Pyne? For the love of all that is holy, or unholy, no farkin way.
    Ditto Andrew Robb.
    I am no Abbott fan - he has extrapolated the meanest of the Howard era and made it his platform. That, and being a clanging bell.
    I think it is sad that someone like Turnbull was worked over by the Liberal Party - he has a lot of small "L" about him, and I think his social policies are far and away better than the rest of the frontrunners from his party. And he has a good brain. He is not as good at being an arch politician, to his detriment. Abbott will take some extracting, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone has a crack at it pre-election.
  6. Ali's Choice Jimmy Flynn (14)

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    There seems to be general consensus that Turnbull won't get another look in. As an ALP supporter I find such a view baffling. With the Party entrenched amongst right leaning voters, a Turnbull led Coalition would quickly claim the centre leaving the ALP and Greens to scrap over the Left. Given the Coalition's massive lead in all polls, coupled with Abbott's lack of personal popularity, I find it strange that the Coalition wouldn't consider a centrist, popular candidate like Malcom.
  7. Ali's Choice Jimmy Flynn (14)

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    Christopher Pyne is a very effective politician and a clever man. But he's electoral poison outside his own electorate where he seems very popular. You'll remember how little we saw of him during the last election campaign. He's the Right's equivalent of Anthony Albanese.
  8. bryce Darby Loudon (17)

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    I think it's natural for Labor supporters to be baffled about Turnbull not being leader. Turnbull is someone that Labor supporters can imagine voting for. It just seems that he is completely out of favour with his own party. The Libs seem to have been taken over by the hard right.
  9. Ali's Choice Jimmy Flynn (14)

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    And yet when the two men went head to head in a leadership ballot a couple of years back, Abbott won by the slimmest of margins. I've yet to see any credible evidence that Turnbull is "completely out of favour with his own party".
  10. Lindommer Andrew Slack (58)

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    Don't bet on it, AC.
  11. bryce Darby Loudon (17)

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    i certainly wouldn't count Turnbull out. For me, there seems a sense of inevitability about him making a return. But again, I'm not a Liberal supporter. You just would think that if Abbott doesn't stay, or doesn't win the next election, that the Liberal Party would re-think its current direction and that Turnbull would be the logical choice.

    Good point. But you never know if it was that close because this was back when Abbott was seen as not having any chance of winning? Maybe the party wanted Abbott but just was worried about his electability? Who knew he'd get as close to he did to winning.
  12. Elfster Jim Clark (26)

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    Politics next year will be potentially dominated by economics. GFC MkII is on its way, and though Australia will be insulated from it quite a bit, both sides will need to show sound policies to ensure Australia's continuing good economic performance and (in my opinion) show how they will position Australia to benefit from its current good luck and build for the future.

    I can't see Tony Abbott being that person to inspire and create ideas for the Coalition. As for Labour they need to show what and who they actually are. Being a more professional party than the Libs, they currently come across as a bunch of self-serving careerists who will do anything for power.

    Labour have come up with some sound ideas, but then butchered them in the delivery.
  13. barbarian David Codey (61)

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    The issue with Turnbull is similar to the issues with Rudd. Both have dictatorial leadership styles that alienate a large chunk of the party room, and while both parties were happy to put up with it while the polls were kind, as soon as the worm turned they were both turfed out pretty quickly.

    I would love Turnbull to be the next liberal leader, but I don't know if it will happen.
  14. Karl Bill McLean (32)

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    Labor on economic Policy - what a joke. Mind you Labor on [INSERT AT WILL] Policy the same can be said. My eyes bleed for the lost opportunities that saw 10's or 100's of Billions squandered on schemes like the NBN, Clean Feed, insulation, the economic stimulus cash sugar hit etc etc. Then we have the asylum seeker fiasco, live cattle exports, the mining tax, lies and backflips about and now a poorly structured (and sure to be botched) Carbon Tax. They are a spin driven mob who devote their time to symbolic announceables but screw up execution and delivery every single time. Gillard is a walking cartoon character, KRudd is the most self interested politician we've ever seen and thats saying something and Swan, oh God, don't start me on Swan

    And yet - Abbott. The best the LNP has got? I don't think so. I would rather see Malcolm leading the LNP, but frankly, if you were him, would you take the chalice even if it was offered?
  15. Scarfman Knitter of the Scarf

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    Australia has coped better with the GFC than just about any other country on earth. Is it all mining boom? I don't like or vote for the Labor party, but some of the stimulus stuff seems to have worked. (With thanks to Howard/Costello for building up the fighting fund.)
  16. Ruggo Mark Ella (57)

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    Pyne as PM is cringe worthy. He is a smug little twurp at best. Turnbull is the man they need to lead the Coalition. Abbott is a dead man walking and he will fall in the polls now the ALP have a little momentum. He was played like a fiddle over the whole Slipper incident and exposed as a fool. I am surprised the ALP hasn't been dirtier in exposing him earlier. He has given them enough ammunition over the years.
  17. Ali's Choice Jimmy Flynn (14)

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    Sure there has been some waste. But there is general acceptance amongst economists that the ALP's stimulus measures were responsible for Australia avoiding recession, hence influential magazine Euromoney naming Wayne Swan the Finance Minister of the Year back in September. As for the NBN, I'm not aware of significant wastage or cost blowouts related to it. Sure, it is expensive, but it will be proven to be valuable infrastructure in time. Besides, the ALP took the NBN to an election and have a mandate from the Australian public for its implementation.
  18. Bowside Peter Johnson (47)

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    Pyne is more of a **** than Abbott and that's saying something. I hope neither of them ever become PM.
    Ruggo likes this.
  19. Scarfman Knitter of the Scarf

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    In regard to the NBN - I have no idea about whether or not it's well managed or good value for money. But I do know that internet speeds outside of Sydney are crap. It seems a fairly gross inequity when you consider the centrality of the internet in both business and pleasure.
    boyo likes this.
  20. I like to watch Simon Poidevin (60)

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    No one denies the stimulus was a good idea.
    Most fair minded people would agree that each of theses schemes were diabolically mismanaged.
    The NBN? $50Billion to replace a system that was working ok.
    Look at the take up rates where it is online, it has no rational economic feasibility.
    The rest of the world is facing economic meltdown, and we are spending big bucks on a white elephant.
    $50 Billion goes a long way in public housing or health, even with these fools administering it.
    BTW I don't believe the mad monk is any better, he will do/say anything to get into power, for powers sake.

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