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World Championships: Individual Time-Trial Preview

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After the international trade teams opened proceedings in Limburg over the weekend, it is now time for the riders to don their international colours for Wednesdays Individual Time-Trial.With last year’s runners up Brad Wiggins (UK) and Fabian Cancellara (SUI) not contesting the event, it opens the door for many other riders to stake their claim for the rainbow jersey. But it won’t come easily for the challengers, with the circuit covering a lengthy 45.7km that includes three major climbs.
The Circuit

The race starts with a steady ascent uphill towards the first climb in Simpelveld, which averages a gradient of 7.7%. Whilst most of the talk will about how riders handle the final climb of the Cauberg, this first rise of 1000m will certainly determine which riders are feeling strong in the legs. Once at the top of the climb, the riders face an easy ride down to the flat before they gradually ride uphill in Gulpen. The circuit then flattens out before dropping and rising dramatically on the short 800m, 5.4% climb in Rozekoel. This climb may prove ideal for many riders as it will get their climbing legs going again before the Cauberg. Once riders reach the bottom of the Rozekoel/Bundersberg, they will be faced with the same 1200m ascent that saw several teams crumble on Sunday’s TTT.
The critical sections for this circuit come at three points.
  1. The first climb Simpelveld will separate the true contenders from the rest due to its steep gradient.
  2. The flat/slow rise through Gulpen and Margraten will prove beneficial to riders who prosper on flatter terrain.
  3. The Cauberg will be where the race is won and lost. Expect the climbers to thrive on this final ascent.
The Contenders
Tony Martin (Germany)

Favourite Tony Martin (Germany)
Last year’s winner and Olympic silver medallist Tony Martin has to enter this race as favourite. Despite his form wandering this year, he has the credibility and natural ITT talent to prosper on the big stage. His Olympic medal aside, Martin has not had the form he would have liked heading into the Championships, with only an 11th at the Vuelta and a 12that le Tour to his name. Ideally the German would have preferred a flatter route, but his performance on the front of TTT champions Omega Pharma on Sunday suggests he should not have any issues with the climbs throughout the circuit.






Taylor Phinney (USA)
The young American will look to build on his strong form this season and challenge for the podium. Coming from a track background, Phinney will look to gain as much time as he can on the long ride through Gulpen, before facing his biggest challenge on the Cauberg. In Sunday’s TTT event, Phinney was caught in an awkward position as he struggled on the final climb. Personally I think the nature of this circuit will work against the 22year old, but his 1st at the Tour of Colorado and 4th at the Olympics suggests he is in the form to prove his doubters wrong.
Alberto Contador (Spain)
2012 Vuelta champion Alberto Contador will be riding on a wave of confidence heading into this race. His 2nd in the Vuelta ITT along with his climbing form makes him a genuine contender to take the rainbow jersey off Tony Martin’s shoulders. Expect Alberto to punch out valuable time over the first major climb and then ride his trademark style over the top of the Cauberg.
Chris Froome (UK)
The big question surrounding the Kenyan-born Brit is whether he has anything left in the tank for these championships. The physical toll of riding back-to-back grand tours may be too much for Froome, as was evident during the last week of the Vuelta in which he struggled considerably. Despite this drop in form, Froome has been strong in his last three ITT outings which has included two 3rd places (Vuelta & Olympics) and a 2nd place at le Tour. We know he can climb, we know he is good on the flats, what we don’t know is if he has the energy left to be a force in this event.
Note: Since this post Froome has pulled out of the ITT to focus on the Road Race, citing fatigue as the main reason.
Frederik Kessiakoff (Sweden)
The Swede has been a surprise packet this year, with unexpected wins at the Vuelta and Tour de Suisse ITT stages. Whilst Kessiakoff may be a lot lighter then several of his challengers, it may work in his favour when it comes to the climbing sections of the circuit. Although his form has been mixed, his two stage wins have come on more rigorous terrain as opposed to his disappointing showings on the flatter ITT Tour de France stages, suggesting this circuit will suit his riding style. He will really have to gain as many seconds as possible over his competitors on the first and final climbs, because his lack of speed on the flats may prove to be his downfall.
The Rest
Despite the likes of Contador and Martin being outright favourites, there are several other riders who may stake their claim for higher honours. Riders such as Sylvain Chavanel (France) and Janez Brajkovic (Slovenia) are two that should never be discounted. Unfortunately the Frenchman has not had the best run in recent months, but we know his ITT prowess and he could find his form on the biggest stage. Brajkovic is a bit of an unknown quantity, he rarely stands out but his form at the US Pro Tour suggests he could make a challenge over the hillier sections of the circuit.
Two men who are in form right now are Canadian Sven Tuft and Dutchman Liuewe Westra. The latter has been enjoying his most successful season to date, and with a win at the Tour of Denmark and strong showings at the Eneco Tour and Olympic ITT, he may be considered a dark horse in front of his home crowd. Sven Tuft arguably goes into this event with the best form of his career. His last three starts have all resulted in victories, and at 35, this may be his last chance to don the rainbow jersey.
Speaking of age, it may also be the last chance for Italian Marco Pinotti. A fifth at the Olympics and a win at the Giro will give Pinotti belief that he can challenge for a podium finish.
Two riders that may be less favoured compared to their national counterparts are Jonathan Castroviejo (Spain) and Teejay van Garderen (USA). Whilst Castroviejo may sit in Contador’s shadow, the Spaniard has been riding strong of late, particularly at the Vuelta and in the TTT. American van Garderen has been overlooked by many as a genuine contender for this race, but his form in the TTT suggests he may pull out a surprise performance. After impressing at le Tour’s penultimate stage, Teejay then rode strongly again at last month’s US Pro Tour. He also flew up the important Cauberg climb in the TTT, suggesting he may have the legs suited for this type of circuit.
Finally, the two Australians Cam Meyer and Luke Durbridge have very little pressure on their shoulders, and as a result I think they can finish in respectable positions. Durbridge may have troubles on the Cauberg, but Meyer’s climbing ability in the Vuelta suggests he should have no issues with the hilly terrain. I’m tipping Meyer to have a brilliant ride and finish in the top ten, but for Durbridge I think this circuit may prove too difficult for him
Prediction
I believe this circuit is perfect for Alberto Contador, and as a result he is my pick to take first place. Although not being a specialist climber, Tony Martin’s ITT ability on the flats should make up for the time he will lose on the climbs, so he is my second place pick. Finally, I think Taylor Phinney will struggle, and as a result I going with the Swede Kessiakoff to round out the podium. Other riders who I suspect will impress include van Garderen, Tuft, Meyer and Westra.
Full Start List: http://www.cyclingfever.com/editie.html?detp=view&_ap=startlijst&editie_idd=MjM2NTk=

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