2009 - a long time between drinks
It still seems a bit close to last season to be making predictions about the next, but I wouldn’t want this to be the only blog on earth that hadn’t, so here goes.
For me the biggest story of 2008 were the sparkles of new talent in Australian rugby. The ultimate demonstration of it being the gutsy win over an all star BaaBaas side by an Australian B team at the end of a long tour and season.
Only a year ago, guys like Horwill, Burgess, O’Connor, Quade Cooper, Robinson, Hynes, Brown and Mumm were still bedding into Super 14. Now they’re all fully fledged Wallabies with good international experience under their belts.
Under Deans we’ve also seen the rejuvenation and development of some existing internationals, especially in the forwards – Baxter, Sharpe, Chisholm, Palu and Moore to name a few. On top of this, there are the young S14 players who will this year be moving beyond rookie status. I’m thinking of guys like Horne, Lealiifano, Tyrone Smith and Beale.
For this reason I reckon this could be a surprisingly good year for Australia in the Super 14. I see no reason why the Tahs, Force and Brumbies shouldn’t have a shot at the semi’s. Overall, I see our teams finishing stronger than last year.
For the Wallabies, 2008 was definitely on an up-slope. At home we won 5 out of 6 and away 4 out of 7. Within those losses, 3 were by 5 points or less and either the Brisbane game or the Cardiff match would have changed a good season to a great one.
Just as important was that this all happened during a time of development (as opposed to relying upon players on the way out, as in the Connolly era). There’s a real platform for winning games now – a pack with a kicker. The glossy stuff has a lot of the right components, they just need slotting together. And a fullback wouldn’t hurt either.
So for 2009 I see further improvement and one or two of those tighter matches starting to go our way. While this probably doesn’t mean a Bledisloe win due to the number of away matches in NZ while not holding the cup, I see the Tri-Nations trophy back in the cabinet for the first time since 2001.
Am I dreaming?
Tags: 2009, match predictions, quade cooper, Super 14, tri-nations, tyrone smith, Wallabies
Matt a.k.a Gagger or GAGR (short for GreenAndGoldRugby, not a fetish)
Matt started G&GR just before the 2007 Rugby World Cup and has been enslaved ever since. You can follow him on Twitter here http://www.twitter.com/Matt_Gagger 
Maybe. I do agree but then again I tend to think that most years.
Bring back Rocky!
Sure thing bud, you’re up on my list now.
I think you guys will be a force next year and depending how we hit the ground at the start of the season you could tip us in the first couple of matches.
But what you said about Beale, well, I was one of those who bought into the ‘wow he’s amazing and can do no wrong’ school of thought from the start of the season, only to be disappointed by a boy who looked way out of his depth, lacking any form of leadership ability, woeful goalkicking [I remember reading that the Tahs ended up with the 2nd worst percentage for the season]. He lacks the impacting play of the like of Giteau, Carter, Wilkinson etc. He strikes me as being the Australian Steyn, except without the boot.
I don’t mean to rag on the boy, but these are things that I don’t think are related to his age or experience.
Or, I could just be talking out of my ass because I’m jealous of him.
This year’s different Patrick, I swear!
Naly D – backatcha.
re: Beale. He’s got some glaring flaws; kicking, tackling and by the sounds of things 10 extra kgs this season.
But he did run the Tahs backline, getting them to the final last year, and saw what happened to them when he left the field.
You’re still probably jealous though.
yeah this year will be big for aussie s14. the tahs are going in with a largely unchanged squad from the one that made the final last year only with more experience. however we should still remember that last year alot of the NZ provinces were weakened by losing their All Blacks to Europe and this season they will be further down the track from recovering what they lost after the post RWC exodus
Actually, this year I do think the Tah’s might just do it, because they have got rid of the choker central (Ewe, SNK, ..). That oughta just about outweigh Elsom’s absence.
Should help Beale too (Ewie’s absence), but I have to say I have never seen in him the superstar everyone else has. So here’s hoping!
Any word on who their furriners might be?
Considering that the Wallabies were THIS close to taking the Tri Nations in that slug fest in Brisbane, and that they will only improve, I think a win in the Tri Nations is a reasonable bet.
2009 will have a lot more than just a 3N.
What about the first post-Deans S14? What can the ‘tahs or the Sharks do?
What about the Lions tour to SA?
You wallabies fans may have reasons to be optimistic, but so others will have their own reasons. Do not expect titles to come easily to your hands, and remember record losses to Springboks and All Blacks were also seen during promising 2008. Besides the games against Italy and France this autumn were not good. Winning the 3N has never been easy, and it won’t be any different this year.
Bollocks – it’ll be easy! We gave it away this year, but won’t next! We’ve got Sharpie’s beard!
Hi guys
I’m a South African sports blogger. Bruce from Myoquip suggested I touch base with you.
Trying to do a bit of a preview of the Super 14 and I notice that SA bookies aren’t giving much love to the Brumbies this year. They’re bid at 16/1 (9th favourites)… The side doesn’t look too bad…
They a darkhorse in the lineup this year?
Rugby Strategist’s last blog post..Fast-tracking the development of young rugby players in the four "esses" – size, strength, speed and skill
Hi Marc,
I think you’ve spotted some good value there. In that side you’ve got
Mortlock
Smith
Hoiles
Ashley-Cooper
Gerrard
Rathbone
Chisholm
Kimlin
Stephen Moore
Ben Alexander
All Wallabies. The obvious gaps though are at 9 and 10. If they’d managed to get Giteau from the force I reckon those odds would be a lot lower.
Yip definately think they’re worth an outside punt…
Appreciate it
Marc’s last blog post..Fast-tracking the development of young rugby players in the four "esses" – size, strength, speed and skill