Preview - Waratahs v Rebels - Green and Gold Rugby
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Preview – Waratahs v Rebels

Preview – Waratahs v Rebels

It’s time for another Australian derby. While the match may include some errors and may not be as high quality as the matches involving the NZ teams, the Australian derbies have generally been intense, entertaining and competitive fixtures, and are well worth the investment of two hours.

Last time they met

When these teams last met in Round 5 at AAMI Park, the Rebels played what was arguably their best half of the season to take a 25 points to 6 lead into half time.

The Waratahs were able to fight back in the second half and score two tries in the last five minutes after Colby Fainga’a received a yellow card to steal an unlikely victory.

The Form

Waratahs
The Waratahs have won three matches and lost seven, and arguably should have lost the three they won.  They lost four of their last five matches and have earned only two  losing bonus points.

Rebels

The Rebels have had only one win a draw.  They have lost eight and have a points differential of -243. Like the Waratahs they have only two losing bonus points this season.

Team News

Waratahs
Head Coach Daryl Gibson has made four changes to his starting line-up. Lock Will Skelton, No. 8 Michael Wells and halfback Nick Phipps all come off the bench into the starting side, while Taqele Naiyaravoro returns from injury replacing Reece Robinson on the right wing. On the bench hooker Damien Fitzpatrick has replaced Hugh Roach.

Sean McMahon – they look like a completely different team with him

Rebels
The Rebels have made a number of changes, three of which have been forced by injury (the story of the Rebels season). Dom Day, Tom English and Sefanaia Naivalu are all out with injuries. Lopeti Timani returns from a four game suspension, Sean McMahon makes his first start of the season,

Culum Retallick replaces Day in the starting line-up. Jackson Garden-Bachop will wear the number 10 with Ben Volavola moving to fullback, Reece Hodge has been named at inside centre,

Mitch Inman at outside centre and Jack Maddocks on the wing. Tyrel Lomax and Laurie Weeks have switched between the starting team and the bench.

Colby Fainga’a, local product Sione Tuipulotu and Jonah Placid return to the bench. Northern Suburbs pair Will Miller and Hugh Sinclair, who have impressed in their time in Super Rugby, drop out of the team.


 

Players to watch

Bernard Foley

In Round 5 against the Rebels, Foley’s poise, composure and game sense almost single handedly took the Waratahs to victory. Watch for Foley’s vision and kicking game.

Michael Hooper
Hooper has been one of the stars of Australian rugby for a number of years. Hooper has won four consecutive Matthew Burke Cups as the Waratahs’ Players’ Player and has won two John Eales Medals.

He is the ultimate competitor and in 2017 is in the top 10 in Super Rugby for both Carries and Tackles. Hooper has also scored 3 tries this season.

Amanaki Mafi
Mafi has been one of the shining lights for the Rebels this season. He has gained 565m so far this campaign, more than any other forward in the competition.

Mafi is willing to put his body on the line in both attack and defence and doesn’t mind getting up into opposition players’ face, something Quade Cooper can attest to.

Sean McMahon
McMahon showed in just 40 minutes on Saturday night against the Reds why he has won the last two Melbourne Rebels Player of the Year awards.

He made an immediate impact off the bench with his determined runs gaining significant ground and putting numerous dents in the Reds’ defensive line.

With McMahon’s appearance the Rebels looked like a completely different team.

Will Skelton – it will be interesting to see what impact he has

What to look out for

Foley to control his team’s movement around the ground and look for him to try and get Israel Folau more involved. While Folau is the Waratahs leading try scorer this season with 5 tries, he has not been in the best of form.

Will Skelton has been elevated to the starting line this week and it will be interesting to see what impact he has on the game. At 203cm Skelton has the size and potential to take a game by the scruff of the neck, although in the past he has not necessarily lived up to this potential.

Dean Mumm has to be watched at lineout time

The Waratahs will have the advantage at the set piece with a 90% lineout success and 89% scrum success compared to the Rebels at 82% and 83% respectively. Watch for Dean Mumm at lineout time, he has won 37 lineouts this season.

The Rebels will be heavily reliant on the strong running of both Mafi and McMahon. Under the coaching of Tony McGahan the Rebels have kicked the ball a lot, with McGahan’s philosophy seemingly focussed on field position, although it is quite difficult to score if you do not have the ball.

In contrast to this philosophy, in the second half last week the Rebels ran the ball more, which resulted in getting back line stars such as Reece Hodge and Marika Koroibete more involved and resulted in a better half of rugby.

Prediction

As with the majority of Australian derbies, I expect a close encounter. As the match is at Allianz, the Waratahs having more experience and composure in the halves (particularly Foley), a more stable line-up and the Rebels continuing to suffer from injuries and the prolonged hangman’s noose looming over their head, I predict

Waratahs by 10

Amanaki Mafi – dominant runner and tackler

Waratahs

1. Tom Robertson
2. Tolu Latu
3. Sekope Kepu
4. Dean Mumm
5. Will Skelton
6. Ned Hanigan
7. Michael Hooper (c)
8. Michael Wells


9. Nick Phipps
10. Bernard Foley
11. Cam Clark
12. David Horwitz
13. Rob Horne
14. Taqele Naiyaravoro
15. Israel Folau


Reserves:
16. Damien Fitzpatrick
17. Paddy Ryan
18. Angus Ta’avao
19. David McDuling
20. Jed Holloway
21. Jake Gordon
22. Bryce Hegarty
23. Irae Simone

Rebels

1. Toby Smith
2. James Hanson
3. Tyrel Lomax
4. Culum Retallick
5. Steve Cummins
6. Lopeti Timani
7. Sean McMahon
8. Amanaki Mafi


9. Ben Meehan
10. Jackson Garden-Bachop
11. Marika Koroibete
12. Reece Hodge (c)
13. Mitch Inman
14. Jack Maddocks
15. Ben Volovola


Reserves:
16. Siliva Siliva
17. Fereti Sa’aga
18. Laurie Weeks
19. Esei Ha’angana
20. Colby Fainga’a
21. Harrison Goddard
22. Sione Tuipulotu
23. Jonah Placid

Match Details

Date: Sunday, 21 May 2017

Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Kick-off: 4:05 pm AEST

Referee: Angus Gardner (Aus)

Assistant referees:
Amy Perrett (Aus), Graham Cooper (Aus)

TMO: George Ayoub (Aus)

Data used courtesy of Opta Sports

* Photos courtesy of Getty Images

  • Keith Butler

    More bloody injuries; when will it end. Would have been inclined to put LT at lock for just this game and have Colby at 7 to give us some over the ball presence. Giving the Tahs a win by 10 may be flattering us a bit. Just more pain unfortunately.

  • Lee Grant

    Thanks for the well-written preview Scott.

    Yeah it may be a dance of the desperates, but as you indicate there have been some good periods of play between the Aussie teams recently – but not for enough minutes in the game – on both attack and defence.

    If any of the five teams put a few games playing as close to 80 minutes as they are capable of, they could win the Australian Conference.
    .

  • Adrian

    The endemic inconsistency of Australian SR teams mean that either could win…
    BUT
    Even though the Rebels have 3 great and powerful back rowers, the Waratahs will successfully attack them through the forwards and the 10 channel. The Rebels might try the same, because their best passing 5/8 has been moved to fullback because he can’t tackle, and in any case, Naivalu and English aren’t there to pass to.

    By starting with Skelton, Phipps and Wells, supported by Kepu and Latu, and backed up by Hooper, Foley, Folau and Naiyaravaro, the Waratahs will pile on the POWER GAME, from the opening whistle.

    They will want to be in front by 20 at half time, and more later, when Skeleton, Kepu, Wells and Phipps come off. The backline will be flat, but the ball wont move much past an inside and outside pass from Foley, who will have guys running off him at all angles.

    Once the substitutions are made, they’ll try and run it wide, with Gordon told to run, and feed Holloway who is great at running in open play. Folau will gravitate towards the wing, and Hegarty will will kick for him to catch or chase.

    Will this work?

    I’m guessing yes, …or the coach is gone,…and the players like him.

    The Rebels will try and hang in there, and boot the ball downfield whenever Maffi, Timani and McMahon look tired.

    It will be a good game!

  • mikado

    Mafi + Timani + McMahon => some impressive go-forward!

    Unfortunately nothing else to the Rebels’ advantage, so it should be comfortable for the Waratahs.

  • James Pettifer

    It is such a wonderful plan to kick long for position and then have the worst line out in the competition …

  • D. Braithwaite’s The Brumbies

    Foley has a kicking game…?

  • Nick

    Great preview Scott, go the TAHS!

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