The human bar of soap
On the surface it might look like there’s not a lot for the Wallabies to play for in this game – the Grand Slam is long gone and there’s not exactly a winning record to protect. I suspect there may also be more than a few players, coaches and administrators fantasizing about the end of season sun back home.
But those are dangerous thoughts to have before a game that will dictate the whole complexion of this tour. A win, and this is a reasonably successful trip, with just one loss (let’s just forget against who…). A loss, and this Grand Sham will morph into a clusterfuck delux, on top of which Robbie and his Wallabies will create the worst yearly winning record at 36%, since 1989 (33%).
So what’s it to be?
Well if recent history and form are anything to go by, the Wallabies will create half a dozen scoring opportunities and maybe take one. Gits will kick around half his chances. Wales, on the other hand, have a number of seasoned campaigners and certified finishers in their rank; exemplified none better than by a certain Shane Williams. For me he is the embodiment of a true rugby winger – the pace, the step, the nose for space. A thrill to watch. I expect him to make like Sivivatu against the Wallabies and prove a handful all night.
The market has the Wallabies by slight margin; $1.96 to $2.18. Perhaps what it’s seen is that Robbie is at least able to field his strongest team on tour, with Palu, Robinson and Ioane proving fit. For me though, this game represents a final step in mental strength that this Wallaby team has repeatedly fallen short of all year.
Gagger says: Wales by 1
15. Adam Ashley-Cooper (Brumbies)
14. Peter Hynes (Queensland Reds)
13. Digby Ioane (Queensland Reds)
12. Quade Cooper (Queensland Reds)
11. Drew Mitchell (NSW Waratahs)
10. Matt Giteau (Brumbies)
9. Will Genia (Queensland Reds)
8. Wycliff Palu (NSW Waratahs)
7. David Pocock (Western Force)
6. Rocky Elsom (Brumbies, captain)
5. Dean Mumm (NSW Waratahs)
4. James Horwill (Queensland Reds)
3. Ben Alexander (Brumbies)
2. Stephen Moore (Brumbies)
1. Benn Robinson (NSW Waratahs)
Run on reserves:
16. Tatafu Polota-Nau (NSW Waratahs)
17. Matt Dunning (Western Force)
18. Mark Chisholm (Brumbies)
19. George Smith (Brumbies)
20. Luke Burgess (NSW Waratahs)
21. James O’Connor (Western Force)
22. Kurtley Beale (NSW Waratahs)
Wales: James Hook, Leigh Halfpenny, Jamie Roberts, Jonathan Davies, Shane Williams, Stephen Jones, Dwayne Peel, Ryan Jones (capt), Martyn Williams, Andy Powell, Luke Charteris, Alun-Wyn Jones, Paul James, Matthew Rees, Gethin Jenkins. Reserves: Huw Bennett, Duncan Jones, Jonathan Thomas, Dan Lydiate, Martin Roberts, Andrew Bishop, Tom James.
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Matt a.k.a Gagger or GAGR (short for GreenAndGoldRugby, not a fetish)
Matt started G&GR just before the 2007 Rugby World Cup and has been enslaved ever since. You can follow him on Twitter here http://www.twitter.com/Matt_Gagger 
That Shane Williams is a real slippery customer. The second try he scored against Argentina last weekend was outstanding and one of the tries of the year. He’s well and truly over his form dip.
Although Wales have a solid scrum, ours will be more dominant so hopefully we can do something off the back of that and negate or balance up the shit lineout. Maybe Mummy will make a difference there.
Bob Dwyer may have got his wish – Kurtley ending up at 13 – which will be an option if Diggers gets injured (although you’d think it more likely JOC)?
The Wallabies side is probably the best we can put on the park form-wise (point of order: there is no-one else who could run the side competently from 10 in the team, apart from Gits).
Wallabies by 7
if Diggers gets injured I reckon AAC to 13 and KB to FB
Or JOC to FB & AAC to 13?
I think the wallabies will win but I won’t be surprised if they get beat.
The selection of qc at 12 with another fly half on the bench suggests gits position is under threat. I hope gits is in 2nd reciever for the set piece, more dangerous there.
Having the forwards we want plus diggers in 13 gives this side a better look. Let’s just hope they worked on putting tries down belly first this week.
I think both bens are due for a try, funny to say about props, but they are both potent runners.
If aus get a try in the first half we will win, if not then god have mercy on us all.
Wallabies by 3
The worry about both Kurtley and Quade is that their thinking processes seem to ice up under pressure. Kurts more so than Quack.
Mortlock will be difficult to replace at 13 when he finally finishes up (and that’s not going to be just yet), but the man to replace him is not Beale. His defence is way to fragile to deal with the traffic that comes at a 13 and the pace and power which it comes with. Likewise Beale can’t generate the same power. Don’t think he can with pace either.
What a difference would have been made to this side with Barnes and Mortlock available and Sharpe for the lineout.
Wallabies on Saturday for me too, but I’m not brave enough to call the score.
Despite his rather chunky appearance, Beale is a GPS sprint champ and close to the fastest player in the team.
I also think that he is not as chunky as he used to be…after watching the Cardiff game i think he maybe one of the bigger backs on tour. Not as tall as mortlock but definitely as wide and as fast. He can step and pass too which something Mortlock lacks in his arsenal. Don’t get me wrong Morts runs harder and straighter than nearly anyone else i’ve seen but that also could contribute to why he has had such a horror run with injuries and more concussions in the gold jersey than anyone else.
I didn’t know that, but very often sprint champs don’t have power on the burst that the Mortlocks, Umagas, No’onus and O’Driscolls of this world have. And I can’t identify it in Beale either.
My mate went to View and raced KB in the GPS 100m final and beat him. KB is not THAT quick.
The Wallabies have their work cut out for them this week. A full strength Welsh side, rubbish conditions, coming off a demoralizing loss & in front of a packed Millenium Stadium.
What will really show up this week is the maturity of our young players in the team, and wether it is worth keeping the youthful combinations.
Hopefully our foward play is at its best, as is was against the Paddy’s, with Bam Bam fresh and ready to spoil.
I think we will be outclassed in the backs, as we do not have the cohesion we so desperately need, especially against a side that has been together for so long.
The Wallabies do not know how to win games at the moment, but if they win this one, after how they performed this year, it should hold us in good stead until the next test match.
I think that the scrum will meet their most formidable wedge this week in the Welsh 8. Genthin Jenkins always scrums well and has 80 minutes in him. But by our recent performances i think we will work them out by 30 minutes and climb over the top of them! Push over try maybe?
Wallabies by 5
Agree with your assessment in the backs. The guys need to click tonight to provide any opportunity of a good win. Hopefully Mumm will add some organisation to the lineout, and if that’s the case, our set pieces should be ok.
I want to see aggressive running tonight and will be shattered if we kick aimlessly like against Ireland.
Dingo edges gradually towards the team I would have picked a year ago. Keep going Dingo. Here’s a hint for what change to make next: Giiiiiiiiteaaaaauuuuuuuu.
We should smash them. We will probably lose.
I hate rugby.
Yeah, lately I’ve been tempted to call rugby the drinking women’s game.
Should smash us?
based on?
your a northern hemishpher team and were a souther?
Is it just me, or does anyone else feel that come the next few years, the Wallabies will probably start destroying the likes of New Zealand and South Africa consistantly, just to go on and lose to Namibia in the world cup?
We will be the new All Black’s.
The Wallabies are the new Black http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/group.php?gid=25116781370
we will be the new all blacks? dont think we have the depth!
And that is the only difference between Oz and Kiwi rugger just now.
The Gold Blacks
Last weeks performance + composure in attack please.
Is that to much to ask?
What we need to win this game comes down to three words;
- Composure
- Communication
- Giteau
Agree, especially the last one.
Interesting to see so many comments saying the wallabies will win, and some suggesting SHOULD win. I don’t see that (unsurprisngly since I am welsh)
As was pointed out if you guys lose this you are going to be one of the worst aussie sides ever by win percentage. that doesn’t happen by accident.
You lost to the Scots, that takes some doing even if they have improved a little.
In the last 3 Autumn international games against wales you have lost 2 and drawn 1.
Lynaghs comments in teh press intrigued me – we havent been a ‘spread it wide team’ since Gats took over. We do put width on the ball at times but the majority of time we rely on big bruiders in midfield, ala jamie roberts.
You will have the edge at the scrum (our TH is useless and has been lucky not to be pinged off the park)and possibly the breakdown thanks to gats idiotic plan of having powell at 6.
but I still dont see where the confidence against an understrength welsh team comes from. understrength because Adam Jones, Ian Evans, Mike Phillips, Gavin Henson and Lee Byrne are missint btw.
I havent been impressed by you guys so far. You have a young and exciting looking team but it hasnt clicked yet and i would be surprised it it did in teh face of what will be a physical attack and blitz defence.
I haven’t been impressed by us either mind, but despite being poor we were still in the game against NZ and were better for large parts of it, and if AWJ had run to the corner we could have been looking at a draw.
Home advantage and the physical edge suggests to me Wales will win a close encounter between 2 underperforming teams. Wales by 4 imo
Only two good things come out of Wales the M40 and Tom Jones. I know my uncle is Welsh… guess his surname Jones…..
They are a formidable force the Welsh at home. The wallabies are a young team but i dont know if they can do it.
As long as the ef lets the game flow it should be a cracker
I take my confidence back. RJ out means lydiate in at 6 (why not jon thomas is beyond me). An inexperienced young 6 vs the best blindside in the world, with an 8 who wouldnt recognize a ruck if you beat him with it, our breakdown is fekked.
could be anyones game now imo
And the beautiul, wonderous Cerys Matthews!!! Don’t forget her.
Interesting comment that last one, ie two underperforming teams.
Right at the moment there seems to be only one team that IS performing and that is the French. I might have included Ireland, but they could only draw with the WBs and they haven’t played either the Boks or the French yet.
But the French beat the world champs and current No. 1. and they did it convincingly.
But back to the Wales v Wallabies. I didn’t think the Welsh looked too flash against an underperforming AB side either. The WBs are the underdogs and nobody, but nobody would have predicted them to go down to the Scots.
So on balance Rugby Nicko I think you’ve made a fair call. Despite being a kiwi myself, it’s not a call I’m going to subscribe to despite its prevailing wisdom.
Maybe not ‘smash’, but certainly we should believe we can win going into the game.
This year we’ve:
- Thrown games against the ABs after leading at half time
- beaten SA convincingly in Brisbane
- Drew with Ireland (should have been a win)
- Beaten France convincingly (albeit at the end of their season)
- pretty much had the better scrum against all SH and NH sides we’ve come up against (maybe NZ excluded)
And we’ve accomplished this, with a very young side (average age of 24) and missing several key front line players (mortlock, barnes, sharpe) who, with our lack of depth (which for some reason NH fans find surprising), are VERY hard to replace. Understrength Wales is not the same as understrength WBs.
In addition, we’ve changed captains and lost one of our most experienced wingers in Lote Tuqiri, which no doubt unsettled the team.
I’ll agree we haven’t clicked, but we have reason to be confident. I don’t think you can read too much into the Scotland game as an indicator of where we’re at. We dominated every facet but the scoreline, which shows a lot of immaturity, but there is ability there.
Even if we lose tonight, we have reason to be confident, and besides, it’s un-australian not to be.
I can’t see how we could lose this one. We have a point to prove to Wales (who beat us last AIs and haven’t shut up about it ever since), and we’ll be fired up after our loss to Scotland. We’ve also managed to secure the crucial underdogs tag. Fat Cat and Palu are fit, and Pocock’s in fantastic form. We should rule the breakdown, and dominate in the scrum.
Yep, I can’t imagine how we’ll lose this one, so I’ll just have to wait and see how we manage it. I have full faith in our creativity and innovation. Mumm’s influence at the line-out could rock the boat though. Yellow cards may be needed, and early injuries.
As above:
- Composure
- Commuication
- Giteau
If we take our chances and play more direct rugby, we should have the edge.
I will be bitterly dissappointed if, as our last game of the international season, we don’t go all out on the Welsh.
where the hell is the m40? certainly not in wales!!!Wales by 15> oz to go down to 6 in world wales up to 4th
You’re all on drugs. Wales by 20.
Give me some of what your on!
Did I say WALES by 20?
Always happy to get these predictions wrong. I felt I needed to counter the (over?)confidence of some others on site.
The loss of the ‘human bar of soap’ (I like that) didn’t help but one or two men extra for Wales wouldn’t have made that much difference.
Nice to finish on a winning note.
See what happens when you slip up with an inexperienced new team. The whole world thinks they can take you!
Even if we lose, I personally am not too devastated with this tour, very few nations could offer such a young inexperienced yet competitive team.