Wallaby 31 players for 2015 RWC

[emuarse]

Palu had a pretty serious negative involvement in the first 2 tries.

A serious question. How well does Palu cover across the field in defence?
Good/bad/ at times??

 

[Brumby Runner]

King.

I like the way you've analysed the various positions and substantiated your selections. But I would disagree only in a couple of respects.

I think I'd have Luke Jones in the 23 in place of Coleman because of his greater experience and his higher level of involvements in a game. Certainly agree with Coleman in the squad.

On the loose forwards, I'd still prefer Fardy as the No 6 and lineout option. If Skelton starts, then I'd have Fardy, Pocock and Higgers in the back row. If Jones starts, then I'd go with Fardy, Hooper, Palu/Vaea. Each combo gives three legitimate line out jumpers and one loosie able to play the wider running game.

Will Genia has not shown form at all this year to suggest he should start or even be on the bench at RWC. Phipps was awful last night, but has been there or therabouts for most of the year, and despite the haters, the next best option is Nic White for his all round game and better kicking option. There will have to be a third half back and that's where Will comes in. There is simply no evidence that Matt Giteau can cover the No 9 slot, and he will need to prove his credentials as a utility player in the RC before being considered for the RWC. He is competing against Lealiifano, JOC (James O'Connor) and Beale for a spot and has no recent Super rugby history to fall back on.

I think AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) still offers more than Kerevi would at this stage. His experience should get AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) a spot in the squad.

Otherwise, pretty much agree with your selections, Sad that PAE might miss out but the last prop spot looks to be between him and Toby Smith.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I'm going to preface these comments by saying that I haven't seen either semi final from yesterday, but I did read the match threads and the general impressions there have made me think more about where we are at with our 23.

It seemed that the Tahs line out fell apart last night and that just goes to highlight how important the set piece is to the effectiveness of a rugby team. If your scrum or line out are having issues you find it very hard to put any kind of sustained pressure on your opposition. To that end I'm increasingly concerned that we may not get the balance right in the pack. If we go with Skelton we forego a jumping option in the line out and will have to cover it with two jumpers in the back row. To me that means that we can't also play Cliffy as a starter. Simmons will do what he always does and win the bulk of line out pill (he can also scrummage effectively). He can't do it by himself though, because he'll get double teamed out of the game. The upshot is that Fardy needs to play at 6 and one of Higgers/McCalman at 8.

If we're looking at a tight five of Slipper/Moore/Kepu/Simmons/Skelton (which I agree we should) then the back row will have to combine a hard on-baller (fetcher), a bruiser in tight who can catch a ball and a ball runner who can get us over the gain line consistently. I've firmed on the view that Pocock needs to be the fetcher. He's returned to near vintage form and he worries the opposition. His presence at the breakdown forces the other team to commit more numbers and energy to shift him, meaning fewer of their pigs fanning out into the line. He also tackles extremely effectively. Fardy is also great at the breakdown (getting his share of steals) and he's got some mongrel too. Given that he can catch and steal lineout ball I think he must play at blindside. That leaves eight and I reckon we should throw Higgers in there for TRC because he runs the lineout at the Rebels, which means he'll be more than fine at test level, and he has excellent ball running skills (evidenced by the number of tries he's scored this season). He's big and athletic and if given the license to run wider (with Pocock and Fardy doing the grunt work in close) I think that might be the right balance.

I'm also warming to the idea of playing Kev off the bench for his set piece ability and all round experience. I don't think he's got the motor to go for the full 80 any more, but I still think he can add value when things are tight and we need to shore up the first phase and/or generally smash blokes for ten or twenty.

If we don't get the above right it won't matter what we do with the backs because they'll never get any quality pill to work with.

EDIT: It seems that Brumby Runner has summed up my thoughts and posted it while I was writing that weighty tome.

 

[Brumby Runner]

EDIT: It seems that Brumby Runner has summed up my thoughts and posted it while I was writing that weighty tome.

Think we're pretty much on the same page TBH. The biggest question to me is does Pocock start no matter who else is in the pack or do we need Hooper's running game in some selection combination?

 

[Slim 293]

TBH - Just wanted to also point out that Fardy has run the Brumbies lineout this year and it's been regarded as the best in the comp.............

Certainly with Moore, Simmons, Fardy and Higgers in the starting team there's no reason why the Wobs shouldn't have a dominant lineout.

 

[Slim 293]

BR - I was on the fence re: Hooper v Pocock, but over the past month Pocock has just been so dominant.............

His work at the breakdown and in defence, in my opinion, is far more important than Hooper's running game.

 

[dru]

The problem at the lineout last night was not just a lack of options. There were missed throws, miscommunication, lack of urgency and a few really good reads from the Highlanders. If you replaced Skelton with Horwill you still would have had the same issues.

I thought last night strengthened Skelton's case. He was the only bloke out there that played with test-level physicality for the whole 80 minutes. We are going to need that in spades in the RWC.
.

I'm seeing different things. To me the line out calls were dominated by throws to Dennis. It was predicted and they got monstered. And no, if you had Horwil in lieu Skelton the line outs would not have been the same. They would have been transformed. Communication confusion etc I suspect was due to lack of real jumping options. "Oh shit, what do we do this time?"

Horwill, of course, has not shown anything like the impact in general play that Skelton does. So doesn't really have the running on big Skel.

Thought the throws generally were fine. Not like earlier in the year.

Btw, jumping isn't simply a matter of height and weight. It's a skill that needs to be worked on and perfected. Either the player has already hot this through S15, or it's not happening at the internationals. The list of Aussie jumpers above by the King was perhaps relevent in terms of potential before the season started. The list of jumping options, real jumping options, is much shorter.

 

[Dave Beat]

After last night - we have allot of work to do - nuff said

 

[dru]

TBH - Just wanted to also point out that Fardy has run the Brumbies lineout this year and it's been regarded as the best in the comp.....

Certainly with Moore, Simmons, Fardy and Higgers in the starting team there's no reason why the Wobs shouldn't have a dominant lineout.

Agree. And Skel can "jump" as the fourth in a situation you hope to be unopposed. But I don't think Hooper provides balance in the resulting squad, and we need a game plan for wide forwards.

 

[saulityvi]

Just did a spot of research in to how big the average lineout options were around the world.

Of course height isn't a perfect indicator of wing-span, but it's the best information available to the public.

It appears Rory Arnold is the joint-tallest lock in the world at 208 cm (6'10).

Adam Coleman is the closest Australian equivalent to Eben Etzebeth and Brodie Rettalick, the trio all coming up exactly 204 cm tall (6'8) each, and all weighing in between 122-125 kilograms. The trio range from 23-24 years old.

Interestingly, Ben McCalman and Dave Dennis are considered lineout options at 192 cm. Meanwhile, Lopeti Timani is considered "too short" at 193 cm - the same height as All Black lineout weapon Kieran Read.

Timani weighs just four kilograms more than Dennis, and six kilograms more than Read.

Ita Vaea, whom I earlier compared to Jerome Kaino, is a full nine centimetres shorter than the All Black. Lopeti Timani is just three cm shorter.

Wycliff Palu is three kilograms heavier than Timani, and only one cm taller.

Those claiming that Scott Fardy is too slight to pack at lock in an international scrum may be surprised to learn that Fardy is the exact same height as 2013 British and Irish Lions Locks Alun Wyn Jones, Paul O'Connell and Joe Launchbury, while weighing in three kilograms heavier than the eternal Irish captain.

Fardy is also taller than locks Luke Jones, Sam Wykes, Adam Thompson, Jerome Kaino, Scott Higginbotham and all three starting Springbok loose forwards.

At "just" 200 cm tall, Rob Simmons is the shortest primary lineout target in top-tier Rugby.

Australian Super Rugby lineout options
Rory Arnold - 208 cm, 127 kg
Will Skelton - 204 cm, 148 kg
Adam Coleman - 204 cm, 122 kg
Cadeyrn Neville - 202 cm, 120 kg
James Horwill - 201 cm, 117 kg
Rob Simmons - 200 cm, 115 kg
Sam Carter - 200 cm, 110 kg
Scott Fardy - 198 cm, 113 kg
Luke Jones - 197 cm, 111 kg
Sam Wykes - 197 cm, 109 kg
Adam Thomson - 196 cm, 112 kg
Scott Higginbotham - 195 cm, 110 kg
Wycliff Palu - 194 cm, 120 kg
Jacques Potgieter - 194 cm, 115 kg
Lopeti Timani - 193 cm, 117 kg
Dave Dennis - 192 cm, 113 kg
Ben McCalman - 192 cm, 109 kg
Jake Schatz - 190 cm, 104 kg
Ita Vaea - 187 cm, 119 kg
Sean McMahon - 186 cm, 100 kg
Liam Gill - 185 cm, 105 kg
David Pocock - 184 cm, 104 kg
Matt Hodgson - 184 cm, 103 kg
Michael Hooper - 182 cm, 101 kg

Springboks
Lode de Jager - 205 cm, 125 kg
Eben Etzebeth - 204 cm, 123 kg
Bakkies Botha - 202 cm, 124 kg
Duane Vermuelen - 193 cm, 116 kg
Willem Alberts - 192 cm, 120 kg
Marcell Coetzee - 191 cm, 112 kg

All Blacks
Brodie Retallick - 204 cm, 121 kg
Sam Whitelock - 202 cm, 116 kg
James Broadhurst - 201 cm, 122 kg
Luke Romano - 199 cm, 115 kg
Jeremy Thrush - 198 cm, 115 kg
Jerome Kaino - 196 cm, 113 kg
Kieran Read - 193 cm, 111 kg
Liam Messam - 190 cm, 108 kg
Sam Cane - 189 cm, 104 kg
Richie McCaw - 188 cm, 106 kg

England
Courtney Lawes - 201 cm, 119 kg
Dave Attwood - 201 cm, 115 kg
Joe Launchbury - 198 cm, 117 kg
Sam Burgess - 196 cm, 116 kg
Tom Wood - 193 cm, 113 kg
Ben Morgan - 191 cm, 116 kg
Chris Robshaw - 188 cm, 110 kg


Best of the Rest
Richie Gray (SCO) - 208 cm, 128 kg
Tomas Lavanini (ARG) - 201 cm, 130 kg
Mattias Alemanno (ARG) - 199 cm, 117 kg
Alun Wyn Jones (WAL) - 198 cm, 118 kg
Josh Strauss (SCO) - 198 cm, 117 kg
Paul O'Connell (IRE) - 198 cm, 110 kg
Pascal Pepe (FRA) - 195 cm, 118 kg
Fenandez Lobbe (ARG) - 193 cm, 108 kg
Louis Picamoles (FRA) - 192 cm, 116 kg
Juan Leguizamon (ARG) - 190 cm, 104 kg
Thierry Dusatoir (FRA) - 188 cm, 100 kg

Add to England George Kruis 198cm and 115kg he is as good as any of them

 

[TheKing]

Slim, I'd argue that the Reds lineout has been the premier aerial unit in the competition. Horwill and Simmons were fantastic in the air, as was Adam Thompson. Jake Schatz and Liam Gill were also handy contributors. With two Wallaies-quality hookers the set pieces were one area that Reds fans could take pride in.

Brumby Runner, all fair points on your behalf.

Are you concerned that starting Jones (197 cm, 111 kg) instead of Coleman (204 cm, 122 kg), while certainly increasing involvements from the number 5 jersey, is sacrificing impact around the paddock and length in the lineouts?

Looking back to Scott Fardy's debut season with the Wallabies, has Fardy still got that high-impact game in him? If he does, than I gladly concede he may be the man for the job at blindside.

I'd love to see what Cheika and Larkham can do when coaching Samu Kerevi - if he's improving at the Reds with an ordinary coach, what could he become when being coached by a pair of great coaches? I hope we find out at the World Cup

 

[Slim 293]

King, I'd largely agree re: Reds lineout........... Off the top of my head I believe they also have more lineout steals than the Brumbies............

I believe the claim comes out of the comms mouths because of the Brumbies % of lineout ball wins off own throw plus tries scored off lineouts...........

But if all the relevant players are all fit and playing then the Wobs should have a formidable lineout.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

TBH - Just wanted to also point out that Fardy has run the Brumbies lineout this year and it's been regarded as the best in the comp.....

Certainly with Moore, Simmons, Fardy and Higgers in the starting team there's no reason why the Wobs shouldn't have a dominant lineout.

Yeah I had that in the back of my mind when I wrote that post. The Brumbies lineout certainly has been strong this season.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Think we're pretty much on the same page TBH. The biggest question to me is does Pocock start no matter who else is in the pack or do we need Hooper's running game in some selection combination?

The second half of the season has confirmed for me that Pocock is the man for the job. He's a beast and we'll need his physical presence to combat those big NH forwards and make them worry about not committing to the breakdown.

 

[Ruggo]

I don't think Kerevi is ready for test rugby. As Kerevi evolves as a player, the one he needs to mould himself off and study is Ma Nonu. He has that same low set big frame and runs similar lines but needs to develop that distributing game Nonu has. Nonu didn't have that in his earlier days might I add. I would hate to see Kerevi become just that big crash baller.

 

[hammertimethere]

The second half of the season has confirmed for me that Pocock is the man for the job. He's a beast and we'll need his physical presence to combat those big NH forwards and make them worry about not committing to the breakdown.

Therein lies the key, I refer again to an earlier (50+ pages ago) point I made about selecting players who (through the consistent application of a select world class skill(s)) change the way the opposition must play against you.

Hooper may have a broader range of useful skills but in none of them is he so completely world class that he forces a re-think from the opposition. Pocock's ability over the ball is such that his mere presence in the game can often force teams to consciously apply more numbers to their attacking breakdown, which in turn makes their continuity in attack harder, which in turn may play nicely into the rush defence system the wallabies will probably employ under Grey etc. Tactically it can make such a difference in the shape of the game.

For me Pocock is the man to start RWC Tests.

The question I ask myself is in what other areas can we apply this concept to shed some new light on areas where selection(s) may be undecided?
- Skelton's Ball running or maul defence?
- Folau's ability under the high ball? (in 2013 this was true, less sure now. I mean smart teams will always kick away from him)
- Genia's running game? Phipp's speed of delivery from the ruck?

I'm not sure if any of the above examples really meet the threshold of world class that I am talking about but I believe this to be a useful paradigm under which to frame discussion about contentious selections in the 23/31.

 

[cyclopath]

^^^^^^^^^^
Does that mean you think Folau is a contentious selection? I can see the contention in others, for sure, but Folau? If that is the case, who else is in serious contention? Or maybe I'm reading your post wrong? Good post, by the way.

 

[hammertimethere]

For the record I would currently have the strongest 23 as
1. Slipper
2. Moore
3. Kepu
4. Skelton
5. Simmons
6. Fardy
7. Pocock
8. Higginbotham
9. Phipps
10. Cooper
11. Tomane
12. To'omua
13. TK
14. Speight
15. Folau

16. TPN
17. Sio
18. Holmes
19. Horwill
20. Hooper
21. Genia
22. Foley
23. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) or Horne (you have to gamble on cover for 12 vs 15).

 

[hammertimethere]

^^^^^^^^^^
Does that mean you think Folau is a contentious selection? I can see the contention in others, for sure, but Folau? If that is the case, who else is in serious contention? Or maybe I'm reading your post wrong? Good post, by the way.

No no, I think Izzy is just an example of a player who's preternatural skill in the air (at least in 2013) solved the issue of opposition having an easy time getting into the Wallabies half by putting up midfield bombs.

So he and Pocock are the only two examples of players who possess a skill that they are so good at it forces tactical adjustment by the opposition. I'm mulling over the others.

 

[KOB1987]

Great post(s) hammer. I too was confused by the context of the Folau comment but I get it now. And totally agree.

I'm also sold on Pocock starting over Hooper, he has been immense. The only thing I'd point out as an error in your squad above is that if Pocock and Hooper are both in the 23 (and I think they will be) it will be a 6:2 bench. Has to be.